Serie A Gameweek 8 Takeaways: What the Data Tells Us
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
Frosinone are sixth in Serie A. Juventus are seventh. One has the worst defensive numbers in the league and the other has the best, and you’d struggle to tell which is which from the table.
That gap between the goals teams concede and the chances they allow ran through Gameweek 8. Frosinone gave up 3.88 xG at Atalanta and escaped with a 4-4 draw. Juventus were missing eight players, held Lecce to 0.86 xG and won 2-0 at the Via del Mare. Lazio stayed level with Inter at the top on a defensive record their chances don’t support. Monza conceded three more at Torino from just 1.36 xG.
So this week’s numbers start at the back. Here are the five storylines to know, and where they leave our futures positions.
Inter took 33 shots against Fiorentina, generated 3.15 xG and had 58 touches in the Fiorentina box to 13, yet they were still losing going into stoppage time.
Álex Jiménez put Fiorentina ahead on 65, from a side that finished with 0.24 xG all afternoon. Inter were without Lautaro Martínez and didn’t find the equalizer until the 90th minute, when Marcus Thuram finished Andy Diouf’s pass. Piotr Zieliński then won it from the penalty spot.
Don’t mistake a narrow scoreline for a slipping champion. Inter lead Serie A in xG with 23.20 and in expected points with 19.6, more than three clear of anyone else. The weak spot we flagged in our Serie A title futures is still there, with 10 goals conceded from 8.43 xGA, but it isn’t costing them points. Inter now trade at 65¢ (-186) on Polymarket, well above the 53¢ we said we’d need to buy. It’s still a pass.
Fiorentina deserve a mention too. Paolo Vanoli’s side are 18th on four points, but their 11.1 expected points rank 10th. They’ve conceded 19 goals from 12.85 xGA, the second biggest xGA differential in the league. At around 16.5¢ to go down, I wouldn’t be chasing Fiorentina Yes as the Viola defense are stronger than their raw numbers imply.
Lazio are level with Inter on 22 points. On the underlying numbers, they’re seventh.
Saturday’s 2-1 win over Parma was one of their more convincing displays. They had 68% of the ball, 21 shots and 54 touches in Parma’s box to 15, for 1.74 xG to 0.81. Kenneth Taylor opened the scoring on 50, and a Diego Carlos own goal made it two. Even so, Lazio missed all four of their big chances, and Simone Lontani’s goal in the 90th minute made the finish closer than it needed to be.
The season picture is the concern. Gennaro Gattuso’s side have conceded five goals from 9.54 xGA, and their 16 goals have come from 11.90 xG. That’s a +11 goal difference on a +2.4 xG difference. Their 12.8 expected points rank seventh, more than nine short of their actual tally, and no team in Serie A is outrunning its numbers by more.
Our title futures piece flagged this gap two weeks ago, and the markets aren’t buying Lazio either. They trade at 3.3¢ for the title and 39¢ to finish in the top four. I’m happy to stay away from both sides at those prices.
Juventus have allowed 4.35 xG in eight Serie A games. Inter, with the next-best defense, have allowed 8.43.
They showed why at Lecce. Luciano Spalletti was missing eight players, including Kenan Yıldız, Manuel Locatelli and Khéphren Thuram, and Juve still won 2-0 without much fuss. Weston McKennie and Douglas Luiz scored before half-time. Lecce’s 16 shots added up to 0.86 xG with no big chances, and they finished with 10 men after Kialonda Gaspar’s late red card.
Two weeks ago Juve’s problem was finishing, with nine goals from 11.61 xG. That has now evened out at 11 goals from 11.52 xG. The defense hasn’t. They’ve conceded eight goals from 4.35 xGA, representing the third largest xGA differential in the league. Their 16.5 expected points rank second behind Inter, yet they’re seventh in the table.
That’s the case for Juventus as the value pick in our title futures, where we recommended buying at 8¢ or lower. They’ve drifted to 3.8¢ (+2532) since, mostly because the gap to Inter has grown to eight points. If you’re buying the underlying numbers, the top-four market at 42.5¢ is the more conservative way to back the same view.
Lecce, meanwhile, sit 12th. We bought Lecce Yes at 50¢ or lower in our Serie A relegation futures, and it now trades around 37.5¢, so that position has gone against us. Sunday didn’t change the case, though. Lecce’s 15.17 xGA is the fifth-highest in the league.
Napoli are 10th on 11 points. On expected points, they’re fifth.
Saturday’s thrilling 3-3 draw with Roma summed up their season. Frank Anguissa’s overhead kick and a Scott McTominay header put Napoli 2-0 up. Roma pulled level through Matías Soulé and Leonardo Balerdi, then McTominay restored the lead on 83 minutes. Balerdi’s header from Wesley’s cross rescued a point in the 89th minute, and Massimiliano Allegri was sent off in stoppage time.
Napoli put nine of their 15 shots on target and won the xG 2.44 to 1.90, but missed three big chances. Roma had the territory, with 61% of the ball, 24 shots and 47 touches in the Napoli box. Napoli were also without both first-choice center-backs, Amir Rrahmani and Alessandro Buongiorno.
Napoli’s 14.1 expected points against 11 actual make them the most obvious buy-low side in the top half. They trade at 30.5¢ to finish in the top four.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma stay unbeaten in third despite missing Mile Svilar, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Manu Koné and Paulo Dybala. Their title price has dipped from 18¢ to around 14.7¢, under the 18¢ entry we recommended as our second title position.
Frosinone are sixth on 14 points. They’ve also conceded 19.49 xG, more than any side in Serie A.
Sunday’s 4-4 at Atalanta was their season in a nutshell. Romano Schmid scored inside a minute and again on 17 minutes. Atalanta then piled up 3.88 xG and six big chances, with goals from Nikola Krstović (two), Éderson from the spot and Eljif Elmas. Frosinone kept coming anyway and took 24 shots. Aleksa Terzić’s 82nd-minute equalizer was the third goal Farès Ghedjemis set up.
Massimiliano Alvini’s side are dangerous going forward, with 17 goals from 13.13 xG. But they’ve conceded 13 goals, 6.5 fewer than their xGA, the biggest defensive overperformance in the league. Their 7.3 expected points rank 18th, and that combination rarely lasts. Frosinone relegation Yes trades around 14.5¢, but the spread is wide (5¢ bid, 24¢ ask), so it’s one to watch rather than chase.
Atalanta don’t escape this either. Maurizio Sarri’s side have allowed 16.36 xG, the fourth-most in Serie A, and they were missing Giorgio Scalvini, Odilon Kossounou and Sead Kolašinac from the back line. Their 8.0 expected points rank 16th, meaning that they too could be sucked into a relegation dog fight.
Sassuolo vs Lazio (Tuesday, 1:30pm ET) is the first test of Lazio’s numbers. They’re 45¢ (+122) away from home, with Sassuolo at 29¢ (+245) and the draw at 27¢ (+270). Sassuolo’s 10.8 expected points aren’t far off Lazio’s 12.8, so the gap in price is mostly the gap in the table. At 29¢, Sassuolo are the side the numbers like more than the market does.
Monza vs Napoli (Wednesday, 3:45pm ET) brings together two of the league’s buy-low sides. Napoli are 54¢ (-117) and Monza 23¢ (+335). Monza have conceded 7.1 more goals than their xGA, the unluckiest defense in Serie A, and their 12.6 expected points rank eighth. Our lead relegation trade was Monza No at 60¢ or lower, and Monza Yes has fallen from 53.5¢ to around 44¢ since. That’s moving our way. At +335 at home, Monza are worth a look.
Genoa vs Juventus (Wednesday, 3:45pm ET) is a chance for Juve to keep the title ticket alive. They’re 58¢ (-138) away at a Genoa side whose 6.73 xG is the second-lowest in the league, with Genoa at 17¢ (+488). Spalletti’s injury list is the only reason to hesitate. The defensive numbers say Juve should control this one.
