Updated October 15, 2026
The prediction markets have both promoted clubs, Venezia and Monza, as the two likeliest to go down. I only agree on one of them. My lead trade is Monza No at 60¢ or lower, paired with Lecce Yes at 50¢ or lower.
ATS Expert Verdict
“Monza have the points of a relegated side and the chances of a mid-table one. Lecce are the other way round. I'm buying the gap on both.”
Relegation boards punish bad luck harder than title boards do. Lose a few tight games and you drop into the bottom three, and the market starts pricing you like you belong there. The xG table says that's happened to Monza. The reverse has happened to Lecce.
Club | Points | xPTS | xG | xGA | xG diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Venezia | 0 | 6.74 | 11.72 | 15.29 | -3.57 |
Monza | 4 | 9.44 | 11.22 | 9.62 | +1.60 |
Lecce | 6 | 2.92 | 7.48 | 16.81 | -9.33 |
Parma | 4 | 3.51 | 4.67 | 12.72 | -8.05 |
Genoa | 4 | 6.44 | 6.19 | 8.67 | -2.48 |
Frosinone | 10 | 5.28 | 8.90 | 14.53 | -5.63 |
Udinese | 4 | 5.20 | 7.66 | 12.97 | -5.31 |
Bologna | 5 | 10.03 | 9.17 | 7.24 | +1.93 |
Torino | 7 | 7.63 | 7.45 | 8.25 | -0.80 |
Fiorentina | 4 | 7.19 | 8.44 | 10.98 | -2.54 |
Early-season sample, Matchdays 1 to 6. xPTS is the points total a side's chances would usually earn. Ordered by Polymarket relegation price.
Monza have a positive xG difference, which almost never happens to a team that finishes in the bottom three. They've created 11.22 xG and allowed 9.62, ninth-best in the league by that measure, and they've still let in 15 goals and taken four points. Finishing at both ends has gone against them, and finishing rarely stays that bad for long.
Lecce are the mirror image. Their 2.92 expected points is the lowest in Serie A. They've allowed 16.81 xG, more than anyone, and somehow banked six points. No club in the bottom half has had more help from the table.
Venezia came up as Serie B champions under Giovanni Stroppa and had sacked him before the end of October.
Zero points from the opening six, and at least two goals conceded in every one of them. The odd part is the attack.
Only four clubs have created more xG, and only Frosinone and Juventus press more aggressively. That's why I won't pay 71.5¢ for them to go down. A new coach who tightens the back line could turn those chances into points quickly.
Venezia No at 32¢ or lower is a small bet for me.
Lecce have collected roughly three more points than their football has earned. They allow more chances than any side in Serie A and create fewer than most, and the 4-0 home defeat to Roma in August showed how quickly it can go wrong once a better side gets on top.
A team with this profile usually ends up in the bottom three. This is my second buy: Lecce Yes at 50¢ or lower.
Parma have created 4.67 xG, the lowest total in the league, and they've already changed coach, with Alberto Gilardino replacing Carlos Cuesta in late September.
Gilardino knows a relegation fight. Until he finds goals from somewhere, though, I've got Parma going down more often than not.
Parma Yes at 46¢ or lower, the widest spread of my three buys, so place a limit order rather than paying the ask.
My lead trade, on the No side. Monza came straight back up and hired Ivan Jurić in June, and his team have played far better than four points suggests.
They've out-created their opponents and still conceded 15, which says more about finishing and goalkeeping luck than about how they defend.
Jurić has plenty of Serie A miles in the tank, and promoted sides with a positive xG difference rarely finish in the bottom three.
Buy Monza No at 60¢ or lower.
Genoa defend well enough, with mid-table numbers at the back, but they don't score. Their 6.19 xG is the second-lowest in the league.
They're a side that tends to scrape clear on draws rather than sink, and I'd price them nearer 27% than 35%.
Genoa No is on my watch list at 64¢ or lower.
Kosta Runjaic's Udinese started unbeaten and then won none of their next four. They've given up the fifth-most xG in Serie A, and their 5.20 expected points sits with the clubs the market prices at 40¢ and up, not 13¢.
Small buy at 14¢ or lower.
A big name to keep an eye on. Maurizio Sarri's Atalanta have the third-lowest expected points in Serie A, which is a strange place for a squad of their undoubted quality.
Nine points in the bank and the quality to turn it round mean I don't see them going down. But with a 5¢ ask and almost no bid, it isn't a contract I'd trade in either direction.
Venezia, at about 71.5¢ on Polymarket. Monza, Lecce and Parma follow, all priced between 42¢ and 54¢. Our view is that Monza are the most overpriced of that group and Lecce the most underpriced.
Each club has its own Yes and No contract. Yes pays $1 if that club is relegated at the end of the 2026-27 season, and No pays $1 if it stays up. Three clubs go down, so three Yes contracts pay out. You can sell either side before the season ends.
US traders can't use Polymarket's international site and go through Polymarket US instead, where the listings and prices can differ. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, has also listed Serie A relegation markets, so check both for the better price.
