Ohio State vs. Indiana Prediction & Preview: Top 5 Showdown in Bloomington
Updated October 15, 2026
Updated October 15, 2026
No. 4 Ohio State heads to Bloomington to face No. 5 Indiana in one of the biggest games of the weekend. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 17, at Memorial Stadium, with the game airing on FOX.
The Buckeyes (5-1, 3-0 Big Ten) and Hoosiers (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) meet for the first time since Indiana's 13-10 win in last year's Big Ten Championship Game. Saturday's winner will take control of the Big Ten title race and be in excellent position to make the College Football Playoff.
For my Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction, I'm taking the Hoosiers +3.5 as home underdogs. I'll explain why I like Indiana to cover below.
Indiana's Stout Run Defense
Indiana allows just 75.0 rushing yards per game (7th nationally) and 2.3 yards per carry (4th), while Ohio State ranks 81st in yards per carry (4.3). The Buckeyes will also be without offensive lineman Austin Siereveld and running back Ja'Kobi Jackson, which could make it even harder to establish the run.
Indiana's Offensive Efficiency
The Hoosiers average 7.8 yards per play and 40.2 points per game, while quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown 17 touchdowns without an interception. Ohio State has an excellent defense, but the Buckeyes have recorded just nine sacks in six games (tied for 94th nationally). That could give Hoover enough time to make plays through the air.
Home-Field Advantage
Indiana has won 19 straight home games and 22 consecutive games overall. Saturday will also be the first top-five matchup ever played at Memorial Stadium, so the atmosphere should be a factor. With the Hoosiers getting 3.5 points in Bloomington, I like their chances of keeping this game close.
Recommended Position:
Indiana +3.5
Current Price:
52¢
Model Probability:
57.3%
Market Probability:
52.0%
Model Edge:
+5.3%
Buy Up To:
56¢
Model Confidence:
78/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I think this is a great buy-low spot on Indiana. The Hoosiers are just 1-5 ATS this season, but they've been heavy favorites in every game. Now we're getting 3.5 points with the defending national champions at home. Indiana has also committed just one turnover through six games and ranks among the nation's least-penalized teams. Give me the more disciplined, well-rounded team with the best coach in college football on its sideline.”
Ohio State and Indiana are both 3-0 in Big Ten play, with UCLA and Wisconsin surprisingly the only other teams unbeaten in league play.
The Buckeyes have won four straight since their 24-23 loss to Texas, outscoring opponents 177-52 during that stretch. Most recently, they cruised past Maryland 45-16.
Indiana, meanwhile, has won 22 straight dating back to last season, although a couple of its recent victories have been closer than expected. The Hoosiers beat Northwestern 29-23 at home and overcame an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat Nebraska 20-17 on the road last Saturday.
Ohio State has one of the nation's best passing attacks, led by quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Sayin has completed 71.2% of his passes for 1,772 yards and 17 touchdowns, including 11 touchdown passes over his last three games.
Smith has been even more impressive, catching 48 passes for 916 yards and 11 touchdowns through six games. He had 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois, followed by 206 yards and two scores against Iowa.
Those performances have made Smith the current Heisman Trophy favorite, with a 59% implied probability (59¢) on Polymarket. Slowing down Sayin and Smith will be one of Indiana's biggest challenges on Saturday.
Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover has been excellent in his first season with the Hoosiers, completing 68.2% of his passes for 1,364 yards, 17 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The TCU transfer threw four touchdowns against Rutgers and followed that up with 263 yards and two scores in last week's win over Nebraska.
However, Ohio State will easily be his toughest test yet. The Buckeyes rank eighth nationally in passing defense, allowing just 150.7 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed only 53.2% of their passes, with two touchdowns and four interceptions through six games.
One potential weakness is Ohio State's pass rush, which has generated just nine sacks this season. If Hoover gets enough time in the pocket, Indiana has the receivers to challenge an otherwise excellent Buckeyes secondary.
Indiana has one of the best defensive fronts in the country, ranking third nationally with 20 sacks and 49 tackles for loss through six games. Defensive ends Stephen Daley and Tobi Osunsanmi have five sacks apiece, while Osunsanmi also leads the Big Ten with 9.5 tackles for loss.
Ohio State's offensive line has been less impressive, allowing 11 sacks in six games (tied for 78th nationally) and ranking 63rd in PFF pass-blocking efficiency. The Buckeyes have also allowed six sacks over their last two games.
Making matters worse, starting lineman Austin Siereveld has been ruled out, although right tackle Phillip Daniels is expected to return after missing four games. Indiana sacked Julian Sayin five times in last year's Big Ten Championship Game, so protecting him will be a major priority for Ohio State on Saturday.
Saturday marks the third meeting between Ryan Day and Curt Cignetti, with each coach winning once. Ohio State won 38-15 in Columbus in 2024 before Indiana responded with a 13-10 victory in last year's Big Ten Championship Game.
Both coaches have led their programs to national championships, but Cignetti has been particularly successful against top competition. He's 6-2 straight up and 5-3 ATS against top-10 opponents, compared with Day's 13-15-2 ATS record in those matchups.
Day has plenty of big-game experience, but this will be his first time facing Cignetti's Hoosiers in Bloomington, where Indiana has won 19 consecutive games.
I've learned my lesson about going against Curt Cignetti, especially when his team is an underdog. His famous "Google me" comment has aged pretty well, and I think Indiana has a good chance to prove itself again on Saturday.
The biggest keys will be winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, protecting Josh Hoover, and avoiding costly mistakes. I trust Indiana to make a few more plays when it matters most.
My final score prediction is Indiana 27, Ohio State 20. I think the Hoosiers win this game outright, but there's no reason to get greedy. If I'm getting 3.5 points with Indiana at home, I'll gladly take them.
You can also check out our Ohio State vs. Indiana model projection and latest college football predictions for more picks and analysis throughout Week 7 and beyond.
