Monza vs Napoli Preview: Predicted Lineups, Tactical Analysis & Player Picks
Updated October 27, 2026
Updated October 27, 2026
Napoli have been involved in 13 goals across their last two matches. Now they head to a Monza side shipping 2.25 Serie A goals a game, and Ivan Jurić doesn’t have captain Matteo Pessina to hold the middle together. That’s the mismatch to watch in Monza on Wednesday.
10th-placed Napoli have recovered from a slow start to the season, and arrive off a 4-3 Champions League win over Bodø/Glimt and a 3-3 draw with Roma. Allegri's men average 1.89 xG/90, and come up against a Monza side that have let in three or more in four of their eight league games.
Out: Matteo Pessina, Patrick Ciurria, Danilo D’Ambrosio, Exequiel Zeballos, Jan Ziółkowski, Yvan Maye, Idrissa Touré, Leonardo Colombo
Doubts / Selection Notes: Michael Folorunsho and Manga Foe Ondoa are fighting for the spot next to Ebenezer Akinsanmiro in central midfield. At right center-back, it’s Eddy Kouadio or Saba Goglichidze.
What Changes: With Pessina and D’Ambrosio both missing, Jurić is leaning on a young back three and a midfield pivot that got carved open three times in Friday’s 3-2 loss at Torino.
Out: Alessandro Buongiorno, David Neres, Alisson Santos (biceps femoris strain), Luca Marianucci, Costantino Favasuli, Massimiliano Allegri (touchline ban)
Doubts / Selection Notes: Sam Beukema (Achilles tendon irritation) and Antonio Vergara are both in doubt. Stanislav Lobotka only got 11 minutes off the bench against Roma and is pushing hard for a start.
What Changes: Allegri watches from the stands after his 90th-minute red card against Roma. Rafa Marín and Benoît Badiashile, who came off after 51 minutes on Saturday, should pair up at the back with Buongiorno still out.
GK: Törnqvist
DEF: Goglichidze, Lucchesi, Carboni
MID: Birindelli, Folorunsho, Akinsanmiro, Mangas
ATT: D. Mota, J. Robinson, G. Varela
GK: Meret
DEF: Di Lorenzo, R. Marín, Badiashile, Olivera
MID: Anguissa, Lobotka, McTominay
ATT: Politano, Højlund, De Bruyne
The Selection That Matters: Lobotka's reintroduction to the lineup would have a major impact on Napoli's structure at both ends. If he does make his return from injury, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa and Scott McTominay sit either side of him and Kevin De Bruyne moves up into the left half-space in place of Noa Lang. That frees both De Bruyne and McTominay to attack Monza’s box without much defensive work to worry about. This in turn shores up the Napoli defence with a player more suited to shielding the back line coming back into the lineup.
McTominay has four goals from 10 shots across Napoli’s last two games in all competitions. He scored twice from seven attempts (two on target) in Tuesday’s 4-3 Champions League win over Bodø/Glimt, then needed just three shots to score twice more in Saturday’s 3-3 with Roma.
De Bruyne, meanwhile, has created at least one chance in 10 straight appearances and leads Napoli in Serie A goal involvements. Put them together and the zone just outside the 18-yard box gets crowded fast. Monza don’t have Pessina organizing the press anymore.
I don’t see Akinsanmiro and Folorunsho tracking runners who arrive late behind Rasmus Højlund, who had three shots in 90 minutes against Roma.
Monza’s defense is a mess (18 conceded in eight league games), but their attack is anything but.
Jurić’s side average 1.88 goals per game, and most of it runs through 21-year-old Portuguese striker Gustavo Varela.
His 47th-minute goal in Friday’s 3-2 loss at Torino was his seventh in seven Serie A starts (1.06 per 90) and his fifth in his last four appearances.
Now he gets a Napoli backline without Buongiorno that let in three second-half goals to Roma, two of them headers from center-back Leonardo Balerdi, days after conceding three to Bodø/Glimt.
Varela and wing-backs Ricardo Mangas (one goal, two assists) and Samuele Birindelli (two assists) should get their chances to test Alex Meret.
Key Metric (2026/27 Serie A Season) | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
Goals Scored per 90 (8-Match Serie A Actual) | 1.88 (15 GF) | 1.62 (13 GF) |
Goals Conceded per 90 (8-Match Serie A Actual) | 2.25 (18 GA) | 1.25 (10 GA) |
Expected Goals (xG) per 90 (Serie A Baseline) | 1.64 (13.1 xG) | 1.89 (15.1 xG) |
Shots on Target Rate / Recent Volume | 42.0% (Varela: 1+ SOT in 6 of 7) | 69.2% vs. Roma (9 SOT on 13 shots) |
Home / Away Points (8 Serie A Matches) | 6 pts from 3 home games (2W-0D-1L) | 4 pts from 4 away games (1W-1D-2L) |
Both Teams to Score / Over 2.5 Trend (Last 5) | 88% Season BTTS / 3.75 Total Goals | 6+ Goals in 2 of Last 3 Matches |
What the Numbers Mean: Napoli sit third in Serie A for chance creation (15.1 xG in eight matches, 1.89 per 90) but have only 13 goals to show for it, so their finishing should catch up, especially if De Bruyne and McTominay are able to push up further in support of Højlund.
Monza are the opposite story. They’ve won two of three at home and scored 15 from 13.1 xG, mostly because Varela keeps punishing shaky backlines. This is part of the reason why Lobotka's potential return could prove so critical for the visitors.
Huge volume since return from injury
Few midfielders in Europe have been more dangerous arriving in the box since McTominay got back to full fitness in mid-October. The Scot has 16 shots and 4 goals across 4 matches since his return. He has also extended a run of 10 straight appearances with at least one shot going back to last season, and has registered 29 shots across the run.
History as a matchwinner
McTominay scored the 72nd-minute winner from two shots on Napoli’s last Serie A trip to the Brianteo, a 1-0. This Monza defense is missing D’Ambrosio and Pessina and has conceded at least three goals in four of its eight league fixtures.
The pricing edge
I’m pricing his 3.2+ shots per 90 and his aerial threat from De Bruyne’s corners against a defense giving up 2.25 goals a game. The ATS Quantitative Model lands on a 51% chance of a goal contribution, an 8.4% edge over the 42.6% implied by +135. My one worry: if Lobotka stays on the bench, McTominay might have to sit deeper than he’d like.
Recommended Trade:
McTominay to Score or Assist
Current Market Price:
+135 (43¢)
Model Probability:
51%
Market-Implied Probability:
42.6%
Model Edge:
+8.4%
Minimum Acceptable Price (Buy Up To):
+105 (49¢)
Model Confidence:
66/100
Napoli's xG leader
With Neres and Alisson Santos both out, De Bruyne has the set pieces and the central playmaking all to himself. He leads Napoli in Serie A goal involvements (four) and xG per 90 (0.66), scored twice against Frosinone on October 10, and created seven chances plus an assist against Bodø/Glimt in midweek.
The floor stays high even on quiet night
He may not have scored or assisted in his 80 minutes against Roma on Saturday, but the delivery was still there. He’s got 29 key passes over his last 10 outings, with several corners and crosses a game on top of that.
The pricing edge
Monza leave room for cutbacks inside the box, and that’s exactly where De Bruyne does his damage. The model gives him a 54% chance to score or assist, a 7.5% edge over the 46.5% implied at +115. The catch is minutes. Napoli go to Juventus on Sunday, so don’t be shocked if he’s hooked early if Napoli are leading comfortably.
Recommended Trade:
De Bruyne to Score or Assist
Current Market Price:
+115 (47¢)
Model Probability:
54%
Market-Implied Probability:
46.5%
Model Edge:
+7.5%
Minimum Acceptable Price (Buy Up To):
-105 (51¢)
Model Confidence:
64/100
Prolific start for Monza's number 9
Signed from Benfica B over the summer, the 21-year-old has seven goals and an assist in 596 Serie A minutes (1.06 goals and 1.21 goal contributions per 90). He’s scored five in his last four appearances, including the 47th-minute strike at Torino and a two-goal, one-assist display in the 3-1 home win over Cagliari on October 19.
Shots on target and penalty duties
Varela takes Monza’s penalties and has put at least one shot on target in six of his seven Serie A starts. Napoli’s defense, without Buongiorno and maybe Beukema too, has conceded six goals over its last two matches at the Maradona.
The pricing edge
His scoring has outpaced his xG, and that won’t last forever. Still, he’s the focal point for 90 minutes, he’s on penalties, and he’s facing a patched-up backline. The model has him at 38% to score, a 5.7% edge over the 32.3% implied at +210.
Recommended Trade:
Gustavo Varela Anytime Goalscorer
Current Market Price:
+210 (32¢)
Model Probability:
38%
Market-Implied Probability:
32.3%
Model Edge:
+5.7%
Minimum Acceptable Price (Buy Up To):
+180 (36¢)
Model Confidence:
60/100
ATS Expert Verdict
“Pessina’s absence leaves a hole right where Napoli love to attack, and Monza haven’t kept anyone quiet this season. McTominay has 16 shots and four goals in his last three appearances, and I’d want him on my side of this one. At +135, McTominay to Score or Assist is the strongest edge of my three selections (+8.4%).”
Want the ATS Quantitative Model’s full-time result projection, spread edge, and totals pricing? The fixture hub has the live market comparison and the main match recommendations.
