Genoa vs Juventus Preview: Predicted Lineups, Tactical Analysis & Player Picks
Updated October 27, 2026
Updated October 27, 2026
Every one of Genoa’s seven Serie A points has come at the Luigi Ferraris. They’ve lost all three away trips and scored once on the road, but Daniele De Rossi’s side have beaten Fiorentina (2-1) and Venezia (1-0) in their last two home games.
Wednesday’s visitors are the toughest test yet. Juventus have allowed just 4.35 xG in eight league games, the lowest in Serie A, and they’ve beaten Genoa four straight times without conceding.
Out: Djibril Sow (hamstring), Samuel Wiafe (adductor), Lorenzo Venturino (knee surgery), Elias Havel (ankle)
Doubts / Selection Notes: Kingsley Ehizibue (muscle fatigue) could return. Lorenzo Colombo is back from his layoff after a second-half cameo on Sunday, but Milutin Osmajić should keep the starting spot up front.
What Changes: Wiafe picked up his adductor strain against Venezia, so Hamed Traoré steps in next to Morten Frendrup in central midfield.
Out: Kenan Yıldız (foot surgery), Manuel Locatelli (meniscus), Khéphren Thuram (knee), Francisco Conceição (shoulder), Nico González (calf), Zeki Çelik (hamstring), Jeff Ekhator (hamstring), Kamil Grabara (ACL)
Doubts / Selection Notes: Randal Kolo Muani’s place is under threat after another quiet afternoon at Lecce. Pape Sarr is pushing Teun Koopmeiners for the third midfield spot.
What Changes: Eight absentees have pushed Luciano Spalletti into a 3-5-2 with two strikers. Napoli visit the Allianz on Sunday, so expect some minutes management after the hour.
GK: Bijlow
DEF: Otoa, Østigård, Vásquez
MID: Ellertsson, Frendrup, Traoré, Mitaj
ATT: Messias, El Shaarawy, Osmajić
GK: Vicario
DEF: Gatti, Bremer, Lucumí
MID: Kalulu, McKennie, Douglas Luiz, Koopmeiners, Cambiaso
ATT: Woltemade, Kolo Muani
The Selection That Matters: Does Kolo Muani start? He’s started all eight league games but only has one Serie A goal to show for it from 2.72 xG. Reports in Italy suggest Spalletti is considering benching the Frenchman, with Kerim Alajbegović or Jérémie Boga playing off Nick Woltemade instead. Either way, Woltemade looks set to lead the line.
Genoa faced 107 shots in their first seven league games, 31 of them on target, and they’ve been outshot in each of their last five home matches. That’s a lot of traffic for Otoa, Østigård and Vásquez to deal with. Juve’s finishing has finally caught up with their chances too: 11 goals from 11.52 xG after sitting at nine from 11.61 two weeks ago.
Much of it starts with Douglas Luiz, who leads Serie A in passes made (362) and completed (319) in the opposition half. In a front two, Woltemade gets service he rarely saw as a late substitute.
Four of Genoa’s five home goals have come before the 30th minute. Juve have the opposite problem. They’ve conceded six of their eight league goals after the hour, and Sunday showed why: their xG dropped from 0.81 in the first half at Lecce to 0.26 in the second while Lecce fired 12 shots. Osmajić (three goals, one assist) is the obvious threat early. Late on, it’s Stephan El Shaarawy, whose last five club goals have all arrived on or after the hour mark.
Key Metric (2026/27 Serie A Season) | Genoa | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
Goals Scored per 90 (8-Match Serie A Actual) | 0.75 (6 goals) | 1.38 (11 goals) |
Goals Conceded per 90 (8-Match Serie A Actual) | 1.62 (13 GA) | 1.00 (8 GA) |
Expected Goals (xG) per 90 | 0.84 (6.7 xG) | 1.44 (11.5 xG) |
Expected Goals Against (xGA) per 90 | 1.35 (10.8 xGA) | 0.54 (4.35 xGA) |
Home / Away Points (8 Serie A Matches) | 7 pts from 5 home games (2W-1D-2L) | 7 pts from 4 away games (2W-1D-1L) |
Under 2.5 Trend / Head-to-Head | Under 2.5 in 5 of 8 | Under 2.5 in 6 of 8; won last 4 H2H without conceding |
What the Numbers Mean: Juve’s 16.5 expected points rank second only to Inter, yet they’re seventh, mostly because they’ve conceded eight goals from 4.35 xGA. Genoa’s issue is volume, not finishing. Six goals from 6.7 xG is close to par, but 0.84 xG a game won’t trouble the league’s best defense often.
Goals in each of his first three European games
Woltemade arrived on loan from Newcastle on deadline day and scored against NEC Nijmegen, Celta Vigo and Rennes in his first three Europa League appearances. Only Darko Kovačević and Roberto Baggio had done that for Juve before him. He’s still waiting on his first Serie A goal, but his early league minutes produced 3.66 shots and 8.78 touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes
Kolo Muani’s slump opens the door
Kolo Muani has started every league game, but his cold streak could lead to him being dropped. If Spalletti benches him, Woltemade becomes the focal point against a defense that’s conceded 13 goals and faced over 15 shots a game.
The pricing edge
I make Woltemade a 40% chance to score, a 4.9% edge over the 33.9% implied at +195. The risk is minutes. With Napoli looming on Sunday, an early hook around the hour would cut into his chances.
Recommended Trade:
Woltemade Anytime Goalscorer
Current Market Price:
+195 (34¢)
Model Probability:
40%
Market-Implied Probability:
33.9%
Model Edge:
+6.1%
Minimum Acceptable Price (Buy Up To):
+160 (38¢)
Model Confidence:
61/100
On the scoresheet at Lecce
McKennie opened the scoring at the Via del Mare on Sunday, finishing a move set up by Douglas Luiz. In the 3-5-2 he’s free to arrive late in the box, and with two strikers occupying Genoa’s back three, those runs should go unmarked more often than they did in a 4-2-3-1.
Set-piece threat
Juve had won more corners than anyone in Serie A heading into the Lecce game. McKennie is one of their better targets in the air, and Genoa will spend long spells defending their own box.
The pricing edge
I have him at 26% to score, a 7.0% edge over the 19.0% implied at +425. If Sarr comes in or McKennie gets rested ahead of Napoli, the pick becomes moot.
Recommended Trade:
Weston McKennie Anytime Goalscorer
Current Market Price:
+425 (19¢)
Model Probability:
26%
Market-Implied Probability:
19%
Model Edge:
+7%
Minimum Acceptable Price (Buy Up To):
+300 (25¢)
Model Confidence:
56/100Juve’s best player at Lecce
Luiz scored and assisted on Sunday. He also had 94 touches, completed 64 of 78 passes, made 28 passes into the final third and was the only Juve player to create more than one chance. Spalletti singled him out for praise after the game, and he is likely to be a focal point for Juve going forward.
Running the game from an advanced role
Nobody in Serie A completes more passes in the opposition half, and he’s created more big chances (four) than any teammate. With Locatelli and Thuram out, he’s getting into shooting areas he rarely reached last season, firing off 2.15 shots per 90 minutes.
The pricing edge
This is the long shot of the three. I give him a 21% chance to score, a 3.1% edge over the 16% implied at +525. He’s still a deep-lying midfielder, so a quiet night on the ball could mean no shots at all.
Recommended Trade:
Douglas Luiz Anytime Goalscorer
Current Market Price:
+525 (16¢)
Model Probability:
21%
Market-Implied Probability:
16%
Model Edge:
+5%
Minimum Acceptable Price (Buy Up To):
+400 (20¢)
Model Confidence:
52/100ATS Expert Verdict
“Genoa will make it awkward early, but they’ve been outshot in five straight home games and Juve’s defense hasn’t given up a goal in this fixture in four meetings. Woltemade has scored every time he’s started in Europe, and Wednesday should give him his first Serie A start at the head of a two-man front line.”
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