Leeds vs Tottenham: Preview, Lineups & Analysis
Updated November 5, 2026
Updated November 5, 2026
Tottenham arrive at Elland Road on three straight Premier League wins and two clean sheets, but their attacking numbers are thinner than that run suggests.
Almost 30% of their season xG came in one game, against a Crystal Palace side reduced to 10 men after 13 minutes.
Leeds have their own problem in front of goal. They've scored nine league goals, four of them in one win over Newcastle, and they're winless in five since.
The question is whether either attack can create enough to open up a game that both sides' data points toward being tight.
ATS Expert Verdict
“I expect a low-scoring affair at Elland Road. Spurs average 63% possession, but leave out the 3.47 xG they put up against 10-man Palace and they create only about 1.0 xG per game. Leeds have scored just five goals in their eight league games outside the 4-1 win over Newcastle.”
Mateo Joseph is a long-term absentee with a cruciate ligament injury. Joe Rodon is back in training after a hamstring problem but may not be ready to start, and Noah Okafor’s adductor issue makes the bench more realistic than a start.
The concern is two of the back five. Gabriel Gudmundsson limped off after an hour at Bournemouth and James Justin played through the second half on painkillers. Melvin Bard and Jaka Bijol are the alternatives if either misses out, while Anton Stach is pushing to replace Ao Tanaka in midfield.
Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert, Savio and Mykhaylo Mudryk are out, and Tosin Adarabioyo and Lucas Bergvall are also listed as unavailable.
The bigger decision is in attack. Roberto De Zerbi started Dominic Solanke up front against Palace with Omar Marmoush behind him, and James Maddison is now fully fit after sitting out that game. Rodrigo Bentancur is back from suspension, and Pedro Porro is fit again, although Archie Gray kept the right-back spot last week.
Expected starting XIs · Both teams attack upwards
Predicted lineups, not confirmed team sheets. Check the latest team news before kickoff.
Calvert-Lewin has scored four of Leeds’ nine league goals, and his 4.0 xG is more than double any teammate’s. He’s also missed five big chances, the most in the squad, so the service has reached him more often than his stat line suggests.
Van Hecke has been Tottenham’s best player this season. Since the last international break he has settled into his role beside Van de Ven, and leads Spurs in clearances (4.4 per 90) and blocks (1.1 per 90). His two league goals are also more than any Spurs forward has managed.
Edge: Van Hecke. Leeds go long 23.9 times per game, so Calvert-Lewin will get the ball. Whether Leeds get any sustained pressure depends on how often he can hold it up against Van Hecke.
Ampadu has played every league minute and covered 104.2 km, the most in the Leeds squad. He leads them in line-breaking passes (13.1 per 90) and is second for defensive contributions (11.6 per 90). He does most of the work in both directions.
Tonali is Tottenham’s equivalent. He’s covered 101.3 km, the most at the club, and his 1.3 xA is joint-highest in the squad. The difference could be discipline. Ampadu is on four yellow cards, one away from a ban, and referee John Brooks averages 4.9 cards per game.
Edge: Tonali, narrowly. If Ampadu has to hold back in the tackle, Spurs’ midfield gets more time on the ball.
James made his first start of the season at Bournemouth, and Farke liked what he saw in the first half. In limited minutes he’s averaging 5.4 successful dribbles and 4.6 shots per 90, both the highest at Leeds. He’s also the quickest player in the squad, with a top speed of 34.8 km/h, and could cause serious problems for the slower Gray if the Spurs man is caught up the pitch.
Gray has made 113 sprints, the most at Spurs, and headed the opener against Palace. But he was booked after 15 minutes of that game and taken off at half-time as a precaution, and Pedro Porro is fit again if De Zerbi wants a change.
Edge: James, if he starts. He’s the one Leeds player who can create something on his own, and Gray will be defending in space whenever Spurs commit numbers forward.
Spurs average 63% possession, second only to Manchester City, and they have the second-most touches in the opposition box (300). They've also won 71 corners, the most in the Premier League.
While Spurs are dominating possession and territory, chance creation hasn't followed the same trend. Tottenham rank 14th for xG with 11.7, and 3.47 of that came against Palace after Jean-Philippe Mateta's 13th minute red card. Take that game out and Spurs average about 1.0 xG per match, after they failed to score in any of their first four league games.
The scoring charts tell the same story. Jan Paul van Hecke, a centre-back, is their top scorer with two league goals, and both goals against Palace were headers from Gray and Van Hecke.
Leeds will be comfortable letting them have the ball. Daniel Farke's side average 48.1% possession and 30.2 clearances per game, fourth-most in the league. James Trafford has an 80.5% save rate and has prevented 3.0 goals this season, largely justifying Leeds' large outlay on him in the summer.
My view: Spurs will have most of the ball, but their open-play chance creation is thin. Corners and set pieces look like their likeliest route through a deep Leeds back five.
Leeds have nine league goals, 14th in the division. Four came in the 4-1 win over Newcastle in September. In their other eight games, they've scored five.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin carries most of the load. He has four of the nine from 4.0 xG, but he's also missed five big chances, and no other Leeds player has more than one league goal.
Supply is the bigger issue. Leeds rank 16th for touches in the opposition box (177) and 16th for big chances (17). At Bournemouth they had 56% of the ball and still produced just 0.71 xG.
There is one opening. Antonín Kinský has a 66.7% save rate and sits at -2.1 goals prevented, so Leeds may not need many shots on target. Daniel James has completed 5.4 dribbles per 90 in limited minutes, and he gives them someone to run at Gray.
My view: Leeds' attack leans heavily on Calvert-Lewin. If Van Hecke and Micky van de Ven handle him, it's hard to see where else the goals come from.
Most of Tottenham's creativity comes from wide. Mohammed Kudus leads the squad with three assists and completes 4.2 dribbles per 90. Andrew Robertson has created 13 chances and four big chances from left-back, both team highs, and Mathys Tel adds 4.1 dribbles per 90.
Leeds' wing-backs will decide how much of that gets through. Jayden Bogle has made 129 sprints, the most in the squad, and he'll be dealing with Tel and Robertson's overlaps. On the other side, Gudmundsson's fitness matters against Kudus. He makes 2.2 tackles per 90, the third-highest rate in the Leeds squad.
Spurs have their own exposure. They make 19.0 clearances per game (19th) and complete 16.2 accurate long balls, the fewest in the league, which shows how rarely they're pinned back. Leeds go long 23.9 times per game, sixth-most, and Calvert-Lewin running into the channel behind Robertson is an obvious outlet.
My view: Kudus against a possibly weakened Leeds left side is Spurs' best open-play matchup. Leeds' best route is going direct into the space Tottenham's full-backs leave.
Compare the current match pricing and the separate ATS Quantitative Model projection on the matchup page.
