Jaguars vs. Ravens: 3 Advanced Metrics That Could Decide Thursday Night Football
Updated November 4, 2026
Updated November 4, 2026
The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) visit the Baltimore Ravens (4-4) on Thursday, November 5, 2026, for a Week 9 Thursday Night Football matchup at M&T Bank Stadium. Jacksonville enters as one of the AFC's strongest teams, while Baltimore faces significant uncertainty with rookie Joe Fagnano preparing for his first NFL start in place of the injured Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. With both teams navigating a short week, several statistical advantages could determine whether Jacksonville continues its strong season or Baltimore delivers a home upset.
Current EPA Rankings
The Jaguars enter Thursday ranked second in the NFL in defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) per designed run, allowing -0.20 EPA per rushing attempt. Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 15th in offensive EPA per designed run at -0.09. EPA measures how much an individual play improves or reduces a team's expected points, accounting for down, distance and field position.
Baltimore to Run Often
With Fagnano making his first NFL start, the Ravens have every reason to emphasize Henry and limit the rookie quarterback's exposure to obvious passing situations. However, Baltimore could struggle to maintain that approach if Jacksonville consistently creates second- and third-and-long situations. If Jacksonville wins those early-down exchanges, the Ravens may have little choice but to ask an inexperienced quarterback to carry more of the offense.
Jaguars EPA
-0.20/Designed Run
Jaguars Rank
2nd
Ravens EPA
-0.09/Designed Run
Ravens Rank
15th
Advantage:
Jaguars
Jags' Efficient Passing
Jacksonville's passing offense has been one of the NFL's most efficient through eight weeks, ranking third with +0.27 EPA per dropback, compared with a Baltimore defense ranking 17th at +0.05 EPA allowed per opposing dropback. Unlike traditional passing statistics, EPA per dropback accounts for sacks, scrambles, turnovers and the game situations in which plays occur. The Jaguars have also generated explosive passes of at least 20 yards on 11.3% of their dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Baltimore Blitzing
That efficiency could become particularly important against a Baltimore defense that has struggled to consistently disrupt opposing passing attacks. The Ravens have blitzed on approximately 33% of opposing dropbacks, but Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense have remained productive against additional pass rushers.
Jaguars EPA
+0.27/Dropback
Jaguars Rank
3rd
Ravens EPA
+0.05/Dropback
Ravens Rank
17th
Advantage:
Jaguars
Jags Offense vs. Ravens Defense
One of the most revealing differences between these teams comes from their ability to finish scoring opportunities. Jacksonville ranks first in the NFL with 5.03 points per opportunity, while Baltimore's defense ranks 22nd, allowing 4.36 points per opportunity. This metric measures the average points scored on possessions that reach the opponent's 40-yard line, providing a broader assessment of scoring efficiency than traditional red-zone touchdown percentage.
Ravens Offense vs. Jags Defense
On the other side, Baltimore averages 4.40 points per opportunity, while Jacksonville's defense ranks third in the league by allowing just 3.17. Those differences suggest the Jaguars hold an advantage in converting favorable field position into points while limiting opponents once they approach scoring territory.
Jags PPO For
5.03
Jags PPO Against
3.17
Ravens PPO For
4.40
Ravens PPO Against
4.36
Advantage:
Jaguars
The Polymarket full-game prediction markets currently favor Jacksonville to defeat Baltimore, reflecting both the Jaguars' strong statistical resume and the Ravens' quarterback uncertainty. Although the teams entered Week 9 separated by just one victory, their efficiency numbers suggest a larger gap in overall performance.
Jacksonville's advantages on both sides of the ball help explain the market's confidence going into this Jaguars vs Ravens matchup, but Baltimore's home-field advantage and potential reliance on Derrick Henry introduce scenarios in which the Ravens could outperform expectations. The live pricing below reflects the market's evolving assessment of each team's chances.
Beyond the outright winner, Polymarket's full-game margin and combined-points markets offer additional insight into expectations for Thursday night. The most important distinction is whether Jacksonville's offensive efficiency will translate into a comfortable victory or whether Baltimore can limit possessions and keep the final score close.
A slower game featuring extended Henry-led drives could reduce total scoring opportunities, while early Jacksonville touchdowns could force Baltimore into a more aggressive offensive approach. Comparing these possible outcomes with the live Polymarket pricing provides a more complete picture of the matchup than simply identifying the team most likely to win. I am inclined to believe that the Jags will win convincingly given all of the adversity that Baltimore is going through at QB.
.webp%3F2026-11-04T16%253A36%253A08.991Z&w=3840&q=75&dpl=cccff5f8b2f854bdf31616b81e96d1fbf56a661f)
.webp%3F2026-10-30T12%253A49%253A00.902Z&w=3840&q=75&dpl=cccff5f8b2f854bdf31616b81e96d1fbf56a661f)