NFL Week 9 Buy or Sell: 3 Teams With Misleading Records
Updated November 5, 2026
Updated November 5, 2026
Like it or not, there's a lot of luck involved in winning NFL games. A missed field goal, a late turnover, or an injury to a key player can completely change the outcome of a game. Throw in differences in strength of schedule and how teams perform in one-score games, and it's easy to see why win-loss records don't always tell the full story.
Unlike the MLB and NBA, where teams play 162 and 82 regular-season games, respectively, NFL teams only get 17. That's a much smaller sample size, meaning a few lucky breaks (or unlucky ones) can have a pretty big impact on the standings.
With that in mind, I've picked out three teams I'm buying or selling heading into Week 9 based on advanced stats like EPA per play, success rate, and expected wins. I'll break down why their records might be misleading, what it means for this week's matchups, and where I see potential value in the current Polymarket odds and NFL futures markets.
The Rams are one team whose record doesn't quite match how well they've played. Despite sitting at .500, Los Angeles ranks fourth in the NFL in net EPA per play (+0.16), behind only the Jaguars, 49ers, and Chiefs.
And it's not just one side of the ball carrying them. The Rams rank fifth in offensive success rate (48.7%) and fourth in defensive EPA per play (-0.11). They've also outscored their opponents by 26 points despite losing half their games.
There's also some context worth considering with those losses. If you take out their season opener against San Francisco in Australia, where they had to deal with a major time-zone change, their other three losses have come by a combined nine points. They even held a fourth-quarter lead in all three. A few plays go differently, and we're looking at a much better record.
And the defense could get even better soon. Myles Garrett has returned to practice after knee surgery, although his status for Week 9 is still uncertain. Getting him back would be a big addition to a defense that's already playing well.
For Week 9, I like the Rams to beat Washington, and Polymarket gives them a 67% chance of winning. However, I'm a little more hesitant about taking LA -4.5 at 51 cents. Our Rams vs. Commanders prediction projects a 26-23 Rams win, which wouldn't cover that spread.
Instead, I'm more interested in the Rams to make the playoffs at 52 cents on Polymarket. Their underlying numbers suggest they're capable of making a run in the second half of the season, especially if Garrett returns healthy.
The biggest concern is their schedule. Los Angeles has the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN's FPI, with games against the Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, and Seahawks twice. That certainly makes a playoff berth more difficult, but at an implied probability of roughly 52%, I think there's a reasonable case for buying the Rams while they're still sitting at .500.
How much longer can the Broncos keep winning close games? Denver is 5-0 in one-score games this season and has now won 15 straight regular-season games decided by eight points or fewer, tying the NFL record set by the 2007-08 Colts. Bo Nix has also set an NFL record with 15 game-winning drives through his first 42 starts.
To be fair, consistently winning close games isn't just luck. Good coaching and quarterback play matter, and Sean Payton and Nix deserve credit for finding ways to win. But I'm skeptical that Denver can keep relying on late-game heroics, especially with how poorly its offense has played.
Despite their 6-2 record, the Broncos have outscored opponents by just seven points. They rank last in the NFL in third-down conversion rate (29.7%), while their 38.8% offensive success rate and negative offensive EPA per play (-0.018) are hardly what you'd expect from a division leader. Nix is also averaging just 6.0 yards per pass attempt.
Denver's defense and ability to protect the football are legitimate strengths, and I'm not suggesting this is a bad team. But with an offense that struggles to sustain drives, I have a hard time trusting the Broncos to keep winning at their current pace.
One way to fade Denver is this week's road matchup against Carolina. Polymarket gives the Panthers a 43% chance to win, while Panthers +2.5 is trading at 49 cents. I can see the appeal of backing Carolina in what should be a close game, but our Broncos vs. Panthers prediction projects a 26-22 Denver win. That's enough to make me hesitant about taking the 3-4 Panthers outright.
Instead, I'm more interested in the Broncos to finish Under 11.5 regular-season wins at 44 cents on Polymarket. Denver would need to go at least 6-3 over its final nine games to reach that mark, and its offensive struggles leave little room for error.
Another option is the Chiefs to win the AFC West at 44 cents. Kansas City has already beaten Denver once this season, and while the Broncos got revenge last week, I'm not convinced their current lead in the standings will hold up. Both futures markets offer a way to fade Denver without needing Carolina to pull off the upset on Sunday.
I wouldn't count out the Buccaneers just yet. Despite their 3-5 record, Tampa Bay has a +27 point differential and ranks 10th in the NFL in net EPA per play (+0.06). They've also gone just 1-5 in one-score games, so their record could easily look a lot different right now.
The biggest reason I like the Bucs is their defense. They rank second in defensive EPA per play (-0.16), allow a successful play on just 39.5% of opponents' snaps, and have already picked off 12 passes. They've been particularly good lately, giving up just 13 combined points in their last two games against Carolina and Atlanta.
The offense, though, is another story. Tampa Bay ranks near the bottom of the league in offensive EPA per play (-0.09) and success rate (40.9%), and Baker Mayfield hasn't played particularly well lately. That's definitely something to be concerned about.
Would it have been better to buy the Bucs when they were 1-5? Sure. But even after two straight wins, I still think there's some value here, especially if Mayfield and the offense can get back on track.
My favorite way to back Tampa Bay is in its Sunday Night Football matchup against Chicago. The Bears are coming off an impressive 34-17 primetime win over Seattle and have won three straight, so it's understandable why they're favored. But I think this matchup could be closer than the market suggests.
Polymarket gives Tampa Bay just a 28% chance to win outright, and while that's tempting, I prefer Buccaneers +6.5 at 51 cents. Our Buccaneers vs. Bears prediction projects a 24-20 Chicago victory, which would be enough for Tampa Bay to cover. With the way the Bucs have been playing defensively, I like their chances of keeping this competitive.
Another option is Over 7.5 regular-season wins at 49 cents on Polymarket. Tampa Bay only needs to finish 5-4 over its final nine games to reach eight wins, which seems realistic given its defensive performance and the relatively open NFC South.
That said, I wouldn't blame you for waiting another week or two before entering that futures market. The Bucs have tough matchups against the Bears and Lions coming up, so there's a chance you'll get a better price if they drop one or both games.
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