Jay Sanin on October 24, 2024
Stefon Diggs projections and prop bets for Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans on Oct 27, 2024
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
At the present time, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are predicted by the predictive model to run 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.9 plays per game.
Stefon Diggs rates as one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 5.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
This year, the shaky Indianapolis Colts pass defense has given up a staggering 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.
The Texans are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.
Stefon Diggs has been a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this year (23.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (29.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.
Stefon Diggs is projected to have 6.2 Receptions in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
At the present time, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are predicted by the predictive model to run 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.9 plays per game.
Stefon Diggs has been one of the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 63.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.
The Colts defense has yielded the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (156.0) to WRs this year.
The Texans are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.
Stefon Diggs has been a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this year (23.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (29.9%).
After averaging 105.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has undergone a big decline this year, currently averaging 62.0 per game.
The Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.
Stefon Diggs is projected to have 75.8 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
