Jay Sanin on October 24, 2024
Mo Alie-Cox projections and prop bets for Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans on Oct 27, 2024
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
A throwing game script is implied by the Colts being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's game.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.7 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
The Colts offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Mo Alie-Cox has notched a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (12.0).
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 53.8% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The 5th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 53.7 per game on average).
The Houston Texans defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 24.0) to TEs this year.
The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends this year, yielding 5.17 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Texans linebackers grade out as the 10th-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
Mo Alie-Cox is projected to have 13.4 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
A throwing game script is implied by the Colts being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's game.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.7 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
The Colts offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Mo Alie-Cox's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 58.1% to 70.0%.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 53.8% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The 5th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 53.7 per game on average).
With a puny 1.3 adjusted catches per game (23rd percentile) this year, Mo Alie-Cox has been as one of the worst tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.
This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has yielded a feeble 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.
The Texans linebackers grade out as the 10th-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
Mo Alie-Cox is projected to have 1.1 Receptions in this weeks game.
