Jay Sanin on December 15, 2024
Alvin Kamara projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints on Dec 15, 2024
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
At the moment, the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the NFL (44.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the New Orleans Saints.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 136.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 15.5 carries in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
The Washington Commanders defensive tackles project as the 6th-worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Saints will be starting backup QB Jake Haener in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are heavy underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The projections expect Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack in this week's game (52.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (65.5% in games he has played).
Alvin Kamara is projected to have 14.7 Carries in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
The Saints will be starting backup QB Jake Haener in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are heavy underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 136.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Alvin Kamara's 64.3% Route% this season conveys a remarkable gain in his pass game utilization over last season's 53.6% rate.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (55.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league this year.
Alvin Kamara's 76.5% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year's 86.4% mark.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.
Alvin Kamara is projected to have 4.6 Receptions in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The Saints will be starting backup QB Jake Haener in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are heavy underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 136.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Alvin Kamara's 64.3% Route% this season conveys a remarkable gain in his pass game utilization over last season's 53.6% rate.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (55.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league this year.
Alvin Kamara's 76.5% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year's 86.4% mark.
This year, the formidable Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a measly 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 3rd-best in football.
Alvin Kamara is projected to have 31.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
At the moment, the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the NFL (44.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the New Orleans Saints.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 136.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 15.5 carries in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara's 69.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season marks a remarkable gain in his running proficiency over last season's 57.0 mark.
Opposing squads have run for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (133 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Saints will be starting backup QB Jake Haener in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are heavy underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The projections expect Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack in this week's game (52.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (65.5% in games he has played).
With a dreadful tally of 2.78 yards after contact (21st percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara rates as one of the least effective running backs in football.
Alvin Kamara is projected to have 61.4 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
