SERIE A
Across seven Serie A matches, Roma’s 5-2-0 record and third-place standing have been backed by better underlying numbers than the table suggests. They average 2.29 goals scored and 0.43 allowed per match, with 2.66 xG and 1.13 xGA. Cagliari are 4-1-2 and seventh, but their 0.86 goals for and 1.86 xGA per match point to a side surviving some noise rather than dominating games. The shot profile also leans Roma. They average 6.0 shots on target per match, compared with Cagliari’s 4.0, and that gap supports the home side’s control of the final third. Roma’s 16 goals from 18.65 xG show mild finishing underperformance, while Cagliari’s 6 goals from 8.99 xG also sit below expectation. That keeps the 1X2 market tilted to Roma, but the projected score still leaves room for a lower-event game.
Our AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction is AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari. We like Under 2.5 goals at an entry price of +105 or better, with Roma’s strong shot volume offset by Cagliari’s modest attack and both teams running a little below their xG in finishing.
