Patriots vs Bears Player Props: Top 3 Predictions for TNF Week 7
Updated October 20, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
Updated October 20, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
The New England Patriots travel to Chicago to face the Bears on Thursday Night Football in Week 7. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on October 22 at Soldier Field, with the game airing on Prime Video.
Both teams enter at 4-2 following Week 6 wins. New England beat the Jets 26-19 for its third straight victory, while Chicago defeated the Falcons 31-23 behind Caleb Williams' 305 passing yards in his return from injury.
Rather than picking a side or total, I'm focusing on three player props where I see value at their current Polymarket trading prices. Below, I'll break down my picks for Drake Maye, Colston Loveland, and Rome Odunze, along with the stats and matchups behind each one.
Chicago's Vulnerability to Deep Passes
The Bears are allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt and have surrendered 19 completions of 20+ yards, including eight of 40+ yards, through six games. They've also allowed two quarterbacks to throw for 350+ yards.
Maye's Downfield Passing Ability
His 10.1-yard average depth of target ranks fourth among qualifying quarterbacks, while his 13 big-time throws rank third, according to PFF. He's also averaging 8.0 yards per attempt, meaning he'd need roughly 32 attempts to reach 250 yards at his usual efficiency.
Favorable Game Script
New England enters as a slight underdog in a matchup with a total around 50 points. Maye threw 32 passes for 235 yards against the Jets last week despite leading 17–3 at halftime. A closer game could give him more opportunities, especially with Bears cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson dealing with injuries.
Recommended Prediction:
Maye 250+ Pass Yds (Yes)
Current Market Price:
50¢
Model Over Probability:
56.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
50.0%
Model Edge:
+6.1%
Buy Up To:
55¢
Model Confidence:
78/100
Limited Season-Long Production
Loveland has totaled just 175 receiving yards through six games, averaging 29.2 per contest. He's stayed below 40 yards in four of six games, and Thursday's line is more than 35% higher than his season average.
Low Target Depth and Efficiency
Loveland is averaging 5.0 targets per game with a 15.5% target share, while his average depth of target has dropped from 9.0 yards last season to just 5.9 this year. He's also averaging only 9.2 yards per reception, meaning he'd likely need five catches to clear 39.5 yards at his usual efficiency.
Week 6 Outlier
Loveland caught six passes for 65 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta, easily his best game of the season. Before that, he'd averaged just 22 receiving yards across five games. New England has also held opposing tight ends below 44 combined receiving yards in four of six games, supporting a return to his earlier production.
Recommended Prediction:
Loveland 40+ Rec Yds (No)
Current Market Price:
49¢
Model Under Probability:
54.6%
Market-Implied Probability:
49.0%
Model Edge:
+5.6%
Buy Up To:
54¢
Model Confidence:
74/100
Positive Touchdown Regression
Odunze has caught 20 passes for 312 yards on 33 targets through six games but has yet to score. He's averaging 15.6 yards per reception, and his combination of consistent involvement and downfield production makes him a candidate for positive touchdown regression.
Explosive-Play Potential
Odunze has a 14.7-yard average depth of target and eight receptions of 20+ yards this season. New England has allowed 15 completions of 20+ yards while surrendering 227.5 passing yards per game, giving Odunze opportunities to score from outside the red zone.
Williams' Return and Established Chemistry
Caleb Williams returned from a three-game absence last week and completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards against Atlanta. Odunze caught six touchdowns in just 12 games with Williams last season, so their established connection gives him a chance to end his scoring drought now that Chicago's starting quarterback is back.
Recommended Prediction:
Odunze Anytime TD (Yes)
Current Market Price:
33¢
Model TD Probability:
37.7%
Market-Implied Probability:
33.0%
Model Edge:
+4.7%
Buy Up To:
37¢
Model Confidence:
69/100
Chicago is currently priced as the favorite on Polymarket, with Bears shares trading at 60¢ (60% implied win probability). Chicago -2.5 is trading at 56¢ and -3.5 at 46¢, while Over 50.5 points is priced at 52¢.
These prices line up fairly well with our player prop predictions.
A relatively high-scoring game would give Rome Odunze opportunities to find the end zone, while Drake Maye could see plenty of passing volume if New England falls behind or is forced to keep up with Chicago's high-powered offense under Ben Johnson.
A second-half Bears lead could also mean Chicago leaning more on its running game to milk the clock, potentially limiting Colston Loveland's targets and supporting our Under 39.5 receiving yards prediction.
For a closer look at this matchup, check out our Patriots vs Bears prediction, including our ATS Quantitative Model's pick and projected final score. You can also get ahead of Sunday's games with our latest NFL predictions for Week 7 and beyond.
