Juventus vs Lazio Prediction: Juve Injuries Open Door for Lazio
Updated October 16, 2026
Updated October 16, 2026
On paper, Juventus are the best team in Serie A and my best value trade on Serie A futures. They lead the league in expected points (14.65) and have allowed just 2.92 xG in six games, less than half the next-best defense. Lazio are level on points with Inter at the top, but their 16 points come from 10.03 xPTS.
So why am I not backing Juve at 57¢? Because the side Luciano Spalletti picks on Sunday won’t be the one that built those numbers. Kenan Yildiz, Manuel Locatelli and Khephren Thuram are among seven absentees. Juve played Celta Vigo on Thursday night, and Spalletti will be in the stands after his red card last weekend. Lazio have had a full week off.
Our model sees a 4% edge on Lazio or Draw at 44¢.
Lazio
Juventus
| Sportsbook | JUV | LAZ |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 32.1¢ | +1.5 69.0¢ |
| FanDuel | -1.5 +198 | +1.5 -280 |
| Sportsbook | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 2.5 49.0¢ | 2.5 51.9¢ |
| FanDuel | 2.5 -113 | 2.5 -113 |
| BetRivers | 2.5 -108 | 2.5 -121 |
| BetMGM | 2.5 -110 | 2.5 -125 |
| Sportsbook | JUV | LAZ | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 57.1¢ | 19.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| FanDuel | -150 | +410 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -157 | +410 | +275 |
| DraftKings | -150 | +380 | +270 |
| Fanatics | -150 | +425 | +300 |
| BetMGM | -150 | +400 | +290 |
ATS Expert Verdict
“I’ll admit the season numbers favor Juve, and Lazio have been fortunate. But xG doesn’t account for who’s missing. Without Yildiz, Locatelli and Thuram, on short rest and with no manager on the touchline, Juve are a weaker side than 57¢ suggests. Lazio have won all three away games. A draw or better for them is a good value pick at 44¢.”
The market is pricing Juve at full strength
Our unadjusted model had I Bianconeri at 57%, but here's the problem. That does not factor in Yildiz, Locatelli and Thuram being absent for this fixture. Once the ATS Quantitative Model accounts for the absences and Thursday’s game against Celta, Juve’s chances drop to 52%. That puts Lazio or Draw at 48% against a 44¢ price.
Lazio’s results are ahead of their numbers
I won’t pretend Lazio’s numbers match their record. Their 10.03 xPTS ranks seventh, and they’ve conceded 4.92 fewer goals than their 8.92 xGA suggests, the main reason they’re level with Inter. But they’ve also won all three league away games, scoring five and conceding one, and they haven’t lost in seven league games. Form doesn't count for nothing, even if some regression is due.
Juve’s defense keeps this low-scoring
Juventus’ 2.92 xGA is extraordinary. Bologna are next-best at 7.24. Their PPDA of 8.65 is second in Serie A, and they win the ball high and keep teams away from goal. That defensive base doesn’t disappear with the absences, but a weakened attack will struggle to make it count. A tight game with few goals suits Lazio or Draw. It’s also why Under 2.5 at 52¢ is worth a smaller position.
Recommended Position:
Juventus No
Current Price:
44¢
Model Probability:
48%
Market Probability:
44%
Model Edge:
4%
Entry Threshold:
45¢
Model Confidence:
49/100Metric (2026-27 Serie A) | Juventus | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
Matches Played (W-D-L) | 6 (3-2-1) | 6 (5-1-0) |
Points / Expected Points (xPTS) | 11 / 14.65 (1st) | 16 / 10.03 (7th) |
Goals Scored / Conceded | 9 / 5 | 11 / 4 |
Goals Scored / Conceded (Per 90) | 1.50 / 0.83 | 1.83 / 0.67 |
Combined Goals Per Match | 2.33 | 2.50 |
Expected Goals (xG) | 11.61 (6th) | 11.25 (8th) |
Expected Goals Allowed (xGA) | 2.92 (1st) | 8.92 (9th) |
xG / xGA Per 90 | 1.94 / 0.49 | 1.88 / 1.49 |
Goals Minus xG | -2.61 | -0.25 |
Goals Conceded Minus xGA | +2.08 | -4.92 |
PPDA | 8.65 (2nd) | 12.13 (9th) |
Deep Completions | 62 (5th) | 51 (7th) |
These numbers make a strong case for Juventus. They’ve been unlucky at both ends, scoring 2.61 fewer than their xG and conceding 2.08 more than their xGA. Three of their five goals conceded came in the 3-2 loss at Sassuolo. Their 11 points are 3.65 below their expected total, the biggest shortfall of any top-half side.
Lazio’s numbers point the other way. Their attack matches their xG, but their defense has conceded far fewer than expected. If this were a full-strength Juve side on a normal week, I’d be backing them. It isn’t, and that’s why the edge sits with the double chance.
Spalletti’s 4-2-3-1 normally runs through Locatelli in the build-up and Yildiz in the final third, and both are out. Douglas Luiz and Sarr should form the double pivot, with Weston McKennie at No. 10 between Edon Zhegrova and Nico Gonzalez. Randal Kolo Muani leads the line. Juve will still press high and win the ball back quickly. They just have less quality to finish what that pressing creates.
Bremer leads a back four that has been the best in Italy. Against a Lazio side that’s happy to counter, he’ll keep the defense compact. With a European game on Thursday and a midweek trip after this, expect rotation around the edges, and possibly a slower second half from tired legs.
Gennaro Gattuso’s 4-3-3 is direct and aggressive. Davide Frattesi provides the runs from midfield, Gustav Isaksen and Mattia Zaccagni stretch the play out wide, and Noslin leads the line. Without Nicolo Rovella, Belahyane takes the deeper midfield role, and Lazio will look to break quickly when Juve lose the ball.
The worry is their concentration late on. Lazio let a two-goal lead slip against Milan, and their defense has conceded far fewer than its xGA suggests. If Juve score first, they’ll have to show more than they have so far. If they keep it level into the final 20 minutes, Juve’s short rest could become a factor.
Out: Kenan Yildiz (back in November), Manuel Locatelli (out until February), Khephren Thuram (out until January), Kamil Grabara (ACL, most of the season), Jeff Ekhator (weeks), Jeremie Boga (weeks), Arkadiusz Milik
Suspended: Luciano Spalletti (one-match touchline ban after his red card at Cagliari)
Juventus predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Vicario; Kalulu, Bremer, Lucumi, Celik; Sarr, Douglas Luiz; Zhegrova, McKennie, Gonzalez; Kolo Muani
Out: Nicolo Rovella, Adam Marusic, Albert Gudmundsson
Lazio predicted XI (4-3-3): Mandas; Floriani Mussolini, Sutalo, Provstgaard, Tavares; Frattesi, Belahyane, Taylor; Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni
