Updated September 3, 2026
Paula Badosa presents a far tougher second-round test for Coco Gauff than their rankings suggest Thursday night at the US Open. Gauff arrives as the world No. 4, the recent Cincinnati champion and an 87% favorite to advance on Polymarket, while Badosa has climbed back to No. 87 after injuries pushed her as low as No. 142. Yet the matchup history favors the Spaniard, as Badosa owns a 5-3 career advantage against Gauff and has won their last 2 meetings.
There is an obvious reason to hesitate before laying 5.5 games with Gauff. Badosa has consistently played her well. She leads their career series 5-3, beat Gauff 7-5, 6-4 in the 2025 Australian Open quarterfinals, and struck again in Berlin this June. That Berlin meeting was particularly interesting because Gauff dominated the opening set 6-1 before Badosa reversed the match, winning 6-3, 6-2. Badosa converted 4 of her 5 break opportunities across the final 2 sets and showed she can absorb Gauff's athletic defense before attacking when shorter balls appear.
Badosa also enters Thursday after one of her better performances of the season. She defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-1, 6-4 in the opening round, surrendering only 5 games. That result followed a productive rebuilding stretch in which Badosa won 5 matches to capture a WTA 125 title in Bastad and then reached the final of the WTA 250 tournament in Iasi. Those runs were important after recurring back and hip problems disrupted much of her previous schedule. Badosa says her body is healthy again, and her first-round showing supports that assessment.
Gauff came into the US Open after winning Cincinnati, defeating Jessica Pegula 6-2, 6-4 in the final. She converted 5 of 6 break points and won 52.5% of her return points against a high-level opponent. After dropping the opening set of her first Cincinnati match, Gauff won her next 12 sets while conceding only 32 games. That works out to fewer than 3 games surrendered per set over that stretch, exactly the type of scoring profile needed for a -5.5 games prediction.
She followed Cincinnati with a professional 6-3, 6-4 victory against Zeynep Sonmez in the US Open first round. Gauff landed 62% of her first serves and produced 5 aces. The final margin was only 5 games, so that exact score would fall short Thursday, but Gauff had opportunities to make the score more convincing. Most encouraging was her ability to escape trouble on serve, including saving 3 break points while trailing 3-2 in the second set before breaking Sonmez shortly afterward.
The serve matters greatly in this matchup. Gauff's double faults have been a recurring issue, and she still leads the tour in that category, but her work with biomechanics specialist Gavin MacMillan has produced visible progress in her delivery and placement. Cincinnati offered the clearest evidence yet, as Gauff was able to use her serve to begin points on better terms rather than repeatedly handing opponents immediate attacking chances.
Badosa can punish loose service games, so this is hardly a prediction without risk. Her backhand can redirect pace exceptionally well, and her history against Gauff suggests she understands how to keep the American from settling into comfortable patterns. If Badosa serves efficiently and avoids extended defensive sequences, this could become a much closer match than the straight-up market expects.
Still, the current version of Gauff is stronger than the one Badosa faced during several of their earlier meetings. Her return remains one of the best weapons in women's tennis, her court coverage forces opponents to hit extra balls, and her recent forehand and serving improvements have reduced the number of easy openings she gives away. A straight-sets Gauff victory is the expected result, with something close to 6-3, 6-3 providing the clearest path to covering the number.
