Updated September 12, 2026
Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton meet Sunday, September 13, in the US Open men’s singles final at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Zverev is in his second US Open final and his third consecutive major final, while Shelton is playing for his first Grand Slam championship. Zverev brings far more experience at this stage, and a perfect head-to-head record against Shelton, but the American has already produced the tournament’s biggest upset by eliminating defending champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Shelton’s victories over Alcaraz and Tiafoe deserve respect, but they can also cause the market to give too much weight to his most recent performances. Zverev is 5-0 in the head-to-head, has spent far less time on court over the closing rounds, and owns the steadier return game for a best-of-5 final.”
Time On Court a Huge Factor
Shelton needed 4 hours and 28 minutes to defeat Alcaraz in 5 sets in the quarterfinals, then had to recover for a 4-set semifinal against Tiafoe. Zverev’s path has become considerably cleaner. After needing 5 sets in each of his first 2 rounds, the German has won 4 consecutive matches without dropping a set. He beat Karen Khachanov 6-3, 7-6(7), 7-6(6) in the semifinal and enters the final with a 24-2 record in Grand Slam matches this season.
Zverev's Return Game Is Key
The gap in my projection comes primarily from matchup history, workload and Zverev’s ability to make Shelton play additional shots behind the first serve. Shelton absolutely has the serving power to keep sets close, especially with a strongly pro-American crowd behind him. The question is whether he can reproduce his highest level for another long match after an exhausting closing stretch.
Recommended Prediction:
Zverev to Win
Current Market Price:
58¢
Model Win Probability:
63%
Market-Implied Probability:
58%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
61¢
Model Trade Confidence:
84/100
The most significant historical number is 5-0. Shelton has faced Zverev 5 times and has yet to beat him. Their first meeting came at Cincinnati in 2024, where Shelton won the opening set before Zverev recovered for a 3-6, 7-6(3), 7-5 victory. Shelton’s serve can make Zverev uncomfortable, but Zverev has repeatedly found ways to extend matches until the American gives him enough opportunities on return.
A 5-0 record does not guarantee another victory, particularly because Shelton is playing the best major tournament of his career. It does, however, provide evidence that Zverev’s game matches up well with Shelton’s strengths.
Shelton’s first serve is the clearest route to an upset. Against Tiafoe, he landed 75% of his first serves and produced 20 aces while winning 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5. He also used his left-handed delivery to create short balls and move forward rather than simply trying to hit aces on every service point.
Zverev's court position can be deep, but his reach and backhand allow him to put powerful serves back into play and immediately reset points. Shelton would prefer a match where first-strike tennis decides most of the important points. Zverev benefits if return games repeatedly reach 30-30 and he forces Shelton to hit second serves under pressure.
Shelton's first-serve percentage will be one of the most important statistics in the final. If it falls much below his semifinal level, the matchup becomes significantly harder for him.
Shelton’s quarterfinal victory against Alcaraz was a huge breakthrough. Shelton defeated the defending champion 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(10-7) in a match lasting 4 hours and 28 minutes and finishing at 3:33 AM. He then recovered well enough to beat Tiafoe in 4 sets.
Zverev’s tournament has followed almost the opposite trajectory. His opening 2 matches went 5 sets and raised legitimate questions about his level. Since then, he has become progressively harder to break down. Four straight victories have come without dropping a set, culminating in a straight-set semifinal win over Khachanov.
The German also has the stronger full-season résumé. He won Roland Garros earlier in 2026, reached the Wimbledon final and is now back in another Grand Slam championship match. Sunday will be his sixth major final overall. Shelton will be playing his first.
Tiafoe had success directing play into Shelton’s backhand during portions of their semifinal, and Zverev is particularly well equipped to attack that side. Zverev’s 2-handed backhand is one of his most dependable shots and allows him to redirect pace without taking excessive risk.
Shelton will want to escape neutral backhand exchanges by using his forehand, changing direction early and coming forward. If Zverev consistently pins him into crosscourt backhand patterns, Shelton could find himself playing too many points on the German’s preferred terms.
There is also a clear difference in what each player has been asked to do late in the tournament. Shelton’s victory over Alcaraz required nearly 4.5 hours, followed by more than 3 hours against Tiafoe. Zverev's semifinal lasted only 3 sets, and his previous 3 matches were straight-set victories as well.
Physical fatigue does not have to appear dramatically to matter. A slightly slower first step, a small drop in serve speed late, or a few extra errors on neutral balls can decide a major final.
Zverev has also been here before. His first US Open final ended painfully in 2020 when he surrendered a 2-set lead against Dominic Thiem. He now returns as a Grand Slam champion rather than a player trying to prove he can win one. That should make the occasion easier to manage.
