Updated September 3, 2026
Gael Monfils and Learner Tien meet Thursday in the second round of the US Open with Monfils looking to avoid his final career exit from this tournament. Tien enters as the No. 14 seed and clear favorite after an excellent 2026 season, while Monfils is ranked outside the top 300 and playing the final US Open of his career. Still, Monfils just showed that writing him off completely remains dangerous. He recovered from a poor opening set to beat Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 2-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 in Round 1, giving him another chance to play in front of a New York crowd that has embraced him for years.
Tien has established himself as one of the fastest-rising players on the ATP Tour, and his results in 2026 make his status as a major favorite here understandable. The 20-year-old reached the Australian Open quarterfinals, the Indian Wells quarterfinals and the Montreal semifinals, while also winning the Geneva title. He began this US Open by defeating Nuno Borges 6-4, 6-1, 6-2.
His previous match against Monfils is also highly relevant going into this rematch. Tien won 6-3, 0-6, 6-3 in Montreal on August 6. The score tells an important story for this particular prediction. Tien was the better player across the full match and handled the deciding set well, but Monfils was capable of completely controlling one portion of the contest. A 6-0 set against a player currently ranked inside the top 20 cannot simply be ignored when assessing whether Monfils can win one set Thursday.
Monfils also enters this match on a high after his first-round comeback. Vallejo won the opening set 6-2 before Monfils changed the match dramatically, dropping only 3 games across the final 3 sets. The Frenchman finished the night with a 2-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 victory on his 40th birthday. It made him the oldest man to win a US Open singles match since Jimmy Connors in 1992.
There are clear reasons to remain cautious about Monfils over a best-of-5 match. He entered the tournament with a 4-9 singles record for the season and has played far less competitive tennis than Tien. Tien is 20 years younger, has been competing deep into major tournaments and Masters events, and is much better equipped physically if this contest stretches well beyond 3 hours. His defensive skills can also force Monfils to play additional shots, which becomes increasingly valuable as the match progresses.
The key distinction is between predicting the winner and predicting a straight-sets result. Tien can be clearly superior overall without winning 3 consecutive sets. Monfils has a much higher ceiling for one set than his current ranking might imply. His serve can produce quick holds, and his ability to suddenly increase the pace from the baseline can disrupt Tien’s rhythm. Playing on Louis Armstrong Stadium should also provide Monfils with an atmosphere he clearly enjoys.
Tien’s style can frustrate Monfils because he absorbs pace well, changes direction effectively, and makes opponents work through extended exchanges. That was enough to beat Monfils in Montreal. Yet that same meeting produced a dramatic shift from set to set.
Our model makes Tien roughly an 80% match winner but gives Over 3.5 Sets a 58% probability. Those figures can coexist comfortably. A Tien victory in 4 sets represents the single match script that makes the most sense: Tien uses his consistency and physical advantage to control most of the contest, while Monfils produces one stretch of inspired tennis and takes a set before Tien restores control.
