Ipswich Town vs Liverpool Pick 9/4/2026: Both Teams to Score Looks Better Than Backing the Reds
Updated September 4, 2026
Updated September 4, 2026
Liverpool head to Portman Road on Friday still searching for their first Premier League win under Andoni Iraola. They are clear favorites against Ipswich Town, but their opening two matches have made simply backing the Reds at a short price difficult to justify.
Liverpool have drawn 2-2 with both Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest, scoring four times while conceding four. Ipswich have been even more open, beating Sunderland 2-1 before losing 5-2 at Manchester United.
That combination makes Both Teams to Score — Yes the most interesting betting angle on September 4.
Conceding twice in consecutive games could be dismissed as an early-season adjustment period, but the underlying numbers make Liverpool's defensive start more concerning.
Newcastle generated 1.58 expected goals in the opening 2-2 draw. Liverpool were much more dangerous themselves with 2.98 xG, but they still allowed Newcastle enough opportunities to score twice.
The Nottingham Forest game was more troubling. Liverpool controlled 69% of possession but lost the xG battle 2.30 to 1.75, while Forest also recorded more touches inside the opposition penalty area.
Iraola is implementing the aggressive, high-tempo style that defined his previous teams, and Liverpool have looked dangerous when their press and attacking combinations work. The tradeoff so far has been vulnerability when opponents escape that pressure. Iraola himself has acknowledged a lack of intensity without the ball during Liverpool's slow starts.
That makes the defensive issues look at least partly structural rather than simply the result of unlucky finishing.
Ipswich's six goals conceded will naturally attract attention against Liverpool's attack, but their own attacking numbers are important for the BTTS case.
Gary O'Neil's team produced 1.80 xG in its 2-1 home win over Sunderland, compared with just 0.66 for the visitors.
Even the 5-2 defeat at Manchester United contained some encouraging attacking signs. Ipswich managed only nine shots but generated 2.01 xG, showing they were capable of creating high-quality chances despite spending long periods under pressure.
That profile suits this matchup. Ipswich do not need to control possession to threaten Liverpool. Escaping the initial press and attacking the spaces Liverpool leave behind could be enough to generate the one goal required.
DraftKings currently lists Liverpool around -185 on the moneyline, implying the Reds have roughly a 65% chance of winning before accounting for the sportsbook margin.
That is difficult to love for a team that has already failed to win as a favorite twice.
Current comparison pricing has FanDuel around -174 for Both Teams to Score — Yes. The price is not cheap, but the bet removes one major requirement: Liverpool do not actually have to win.
The regular Over 2.5 market is even more heavily favored toward goals in the broader market, while Over 3.5 offers plus money around the +120 range. BTTS sits between those options. A 1-1 or 2-1 result is enough, whereas Over 3.5 requires this to become another four-goal shootout.
There is also reason to expect Liverpool to do their part. They have already generated nearly 4.75 xG across their opening two league matches, and Bradley Barcola is available after joining from Paris Saint-Germain, although Iraola has indicated that his lack of preseason minutes could keep him from immediately starting.
The Polymarket pricing provides an interesting comparison rather than a direct sportsbook equivalent.
On the current Ipswich-Liverpool market, an Ipswich Over 0.5 Goals contract is trading around 70¢, while Liverpool Over 0.5 is around 92¢. Over 3.5 total goals, meanwhile, is priced around 44¢.
Those are prediction-market prices, not sportsbook odds, and the individual probabilities should not simply be multiplied together. But the picture is notable: traders strongly expect Liverpool to score and give Ipswich a substantial chance of finding the net, while four or more total goals remains below 50%.
That is almost exactly the type of scenario in which BTTS can make more sense than chasing Over 3.5.
Liverpool should create enough chances to punish an Ipswich defense that conceded five at Old Trafford. The bigger question is whether Liverpool can finally keep an opponent quiet. Through two games, there is little evidence that bettors should count on it.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes
Best Available Odds: -174 at FanDuel
Confidence: 7/10
Projected Score: Ipswich Town 1-2 Liverpool
No games available.
