Updated August 20, 2026
Liverpool's title defence unravelled badly enough last season to cost Arne Slot his job, but the fifth-place finish does not tell the whole story. The Reds still produced one of the stronger underlying profiles in the Premier League, generated 59.25 xG, conceded only 47.02 xGA and finished with a positive expected-goal differential of more than 12 across the season.
The problem was that those numbers were accompanied by inconsistency, defensive fragility and an attack that never fully justified the enormous investment made the previous summer. Liverpool still scored 63 league goals, the fourth-best total in the division, but conceded 53 despite allowing considerably less than that by xGA.
Andoni Iraola now inherits a squad with obvious title-level talent but also significant transition risk. Mohamed Salah, Andy Robertson and Ibrahima Konaté have all departed, while the defence has been rebuilt around Ronald Araújo and Jeremy Jacquet. At the same time, Alexander Isak is fully involved in pre-season after an injury-disrupted first year, while Florian Wirtz gets another opportunity to justify the enormous expectations that followed his arrival.
At +600 to win the Premier League, Liverpool sit behind Arsenal and Manchester City in the market, which makes them far more interesting than they would be at the price of a typical contender.
Liverpool's 2025/26 season was disappointing because of the standard they had set rather than because they suddenly became an ordinary team. Slot's side finished fifth after winning 17 of 38 league matches, but their underlying performance still resembled that of a top side, if not a reigning champion.
They generated 59.25 xG, equivalent to 1.56 xG per match, while conceding 47.02 xGA, or approximately 1.24 xGA per match. Their actual record of 63 scored and 53 conceded therefore contained two contrasting stories: the attack slightly outperformed expectation, while the defence conceded almost six goals more than its chance quality suggested it should have.
That distinction is important because it makes last season look less like evidence that Liverpool's squad had fundamentally declined and more like a season in which structural problems, personnel disruption and poor execution combined badly.
The attack remained productive, while the underlying defensive process was far better than the raw goals-against figure suggests. Iraola therefore does not need to rebuild Liverpool from the ground up. He needs to turn relatively strong underlying numbers into a much more consistent sequence of results.
Liverpool appointed Iraola after three seasons at Bournemouth, culminating in a sixth-place finish and European qualification. His attraction is obvious: aggressive pressing, vertical attacking football and a willingness to play at high intensity fit naturally with the qualities already present in Liverpool's squad.
That should be particularly significant for Wirtz and Isak. Wirtz never consistently imposed himself during his first Premier League season, despite arriving as one of Europe's most highly rated attacking midfielders. Iraola's more direct system should place him closer to goal and create more opportunities to receive possession before opposition defences are set, rather than asking him to operate almost exclusively against compact blocks.
Isak should benefit for similar reasons. His first campaign was disrupted by fitness problems, but Liverpool now begin the season with him fully involved in pre-season, giving Iraola the chance to build the attack around one of the league's most complete forwards rather than repeatedly adjusting around his availability.
The broader question is whether the greater attacking aggression creates new defensive problems, particularly while the back line is still learning to play together.
Liverpool's summer has been defined as much by departures as arrivals.
Salah's exit removes one of the greatest goalscorers in Premier League history, while Robertson and Konaté leave significant experience behind them. Liverpool have responded by adding Jacquet and bringing Araújo in on a season-long loan, but Virgil van Dijk has already acknowledged that the new defensive unit will need time to develop cohesion.
That concern becomes more relevant under Iraola because his approach places considerable responsibility on defenders to cope with space behind an aggressive press. Bournemouth were at their best when opponents were forced into rushed decisions, but when that pressure was bypassed, their centre-backs were often asked to defend large areas.
Liverpool have enough individual quality to handle that better than Bournemouth did, although the early stages of the season could still be volatile while the partnerships settle.
Jacquet is especially important here. If he stays fit, Liverpool have added a young defender with the physical profile to thrive in precisely those situations. At Rennes last season Jacquet won 75.5% of his aerial duels (94th percentile across Europe), and posted a 67.2% overall duel-success rate (95th percentile). If he can replicate anything like these numbers in the Premier League, then Liverpool will be a force to be reckoned with this season.
The absence of Salah inevitably changes the attack, but Liverpool are not short of alternatives.
Wirtz, Isak, Hugo Ekitike and Dominik Szoboszlai give Iraola multiple ways to create and finish chances, while Victor Muñoz adds another flexible forward after producing seven goals and five assists in 34 appearances for Osasuna last season.
Liverpool also generated 44.78 open-play xG last season (2nd behind Manchester United), illustrating that their attacking production was not dependent on penalties or isolated set-piece success.
That provides a strong foundation for Iraola. His Bournemouth teams were built around forcing turnovers high up the pitch and attacking before opponents could reset, which should increase the number of transition opportunities available to players such as Wirtz and Isak.
There will inevitably be some redistribution of goals following Salah's departure, but the broader attacking structure may actually become less predictable. Rather than funnelling so much of the final action towards one side, Iraola can construct a front line in which Wirtz, Isak and Ekitike all carry substantial scoring or creative responsibility.
Player | Key Metric / Angle | Target Market |
|---|---|---|
Alexander Isak | Fully involved in pre-season after an injury-hit first campaign and should lead the line in a more vertical attack | Anytime Goalscorer / 3+ Shots |
Florian Wirtz | Iraola's system should move him closer to goal and increase transition opportunities | To Score or Assist / 2+ Shots |
Hugo Ekitike | Led Liverpool with 11 league goals last season and can play alongside or instead of Isak | Anytime Goalscorer when starting |
Dominik Szoboszlai | Led Liverpool with seven league assists last season and should remain central to progression and pressing | To Record an Assist / 1+ Shot on Target |
Victor Muñoz | Seven goals and five assists for Osasuna before joining Liverpool | To Score or Assist when starting |
Liverpool are not the most complete team in the Premier League entering the season. Arsenal have the continuity of a title-winning squad, while Manchester City remain the other obvious benchmark despite their own managerial transition. What makes Liverpool attractive is the gap between their ceiling and their price.
At +600, the market implies roughly a 14.3% chance of winning the title before bookmaker margin, while Polymarket currently rate the chances of the title returning to Merseyside at 13%. That looks relatively modest for a team that won the league only two seasons ago, produced a +12.23 expected-goal differential during what was considered a disastrous campaign and still possesses one of the deepest collections of attacking talent in England.
There are clear reasons for the discount. Iraola has never managed a genuine title contender, Salah's production must be replaced, and the defence may need time before Jacquet and Araújo are fully integrated. Those are serious risks rather than mere inconveniences.
However, Liverpool do not require an improbable leap from mid-table quality to championship level. They need a talented squad to convert underlying superiority into more consistent results, while a coach whose tactical preferences appear well suited to their personnel improves the speed and aggression of their attacking play.
That makes +600 substantially more interesting than simply assuming fifth place is their new level.
Liverpool's fifth-place finish creates an unusually interesting betting setup because the market is pricing the disappointment of 2025/26 without completely accounting for how competitive the underlying numbers remained. A team that produced 59.25 xG against 47.02 xGA did not perform like a side that had fallen out of the Premier League's elite group, even if the final table suggested otherwise.
Iraola now has to solve the problems that prevented those numbers translating into a title challenge. His aggressive, vertical style should suit Wirtz, Isak and Szoboszlai, while a fitter Isak alone could materially raise the attacking ceiling. Liverpool also retain enough depth that Salah's departure, significant as it is, does not leave them dependent on a single replacement reproducing his output.
The more serious uncertainty is at the other end. Araújo and Jacquet are joining a defence that has lost both Robertson and Konaté, and the transition towards Iraola's high-intensity approach may produce some early instability. If that unit settles quickly, however, the rest of the squad looks strong enough to challenge Arsenal and Manchester City rather than merely compete for the top four.
At +600, Liverpool therefore stand out as one of the more appealing title prices among the genuine contenders. There is more risk than with Arsenal, but there is also significantly more upside in the number. For bettors willing to accept the uncertainty surrounding Iraola and the rebuilt defence, backing Liverpool to regain the Premier League title is the clearest futures angle.
