Nasdaq Wants to Launch Inflation Prediction Markets
Updated November 2, 2026
Updated November 2, 2026
Prediction markets are starting to look a lot less like a niche corner of the internet.
Nasdaq MRX Futures has applied for approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate a new regulated exchange. Its first proposed markets are surprisingly simple: contracts based on U.S. inflation.
Nasdaq is not building another sports prediction app. It is testing whether the same basic idea behind Kalshi and Polymarket can become part of mainstream financial trading.
Under the proposal, traders could take positions on questions such as whether U.S. inflation will finish above a certain level. If the number comes in above the threshold, the contract settles at $100. If it does not, it settles at $0.
Nasdaq plans to begin with contracts based on headline Consumer Price Index inflation and core CPI, which excludes food and energy. Both would use official data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The idea is simple enough: instead of buying a stock because you think inflation will fall, you could potentially trade the inflation outcome itself.
Inflation already moves almost every corner of the financial markets. A higher-than-expected CPI report can affect stocks, bonds, currencies, interest-rate expectations and what investors think the Federal Reserve will do next.
Investors already spend enormous amounts of time trying to work out where inflation is heading. Nasdaq's proposal simply turns that forecast into something that can be traded directly.
And yes, that sounds a lot like a prediction market.
Kalshi already offers markets based on economic data, interest rates and other real-world events. Nasdaq's proposal follows the same broad idea: define an outcome, let traders take opposing positions, then settle the market when the official result arrives.
The main difference is that Nasdaq wants to operate the exchange itself. Nasdaq MRX Futures has applied to become its own CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market rather than simply adding contracts from an existing platform.
That distinction matters as the CFTC continues to clarify how prediction market event contracts fit into the federal derivatives framework.
Nasdaq is not alone.
Kalshi has expanded well beyond politics and sports and is already moving into more traditional financial products. ForecastEx focuses heavily on economic and financial outcomes, while Robinhood has brought event contracts into a mainstream investing app. Cboe is also developing outcome-based products tied to company results.
Now Nasdaq is exploring the same concept through inflation.
The products are different, but the basic idea underneath them is similar: let people trade directly on what they think will happen.
That is what makes prediction markets such a flexible concept.
Stocks let investors trade companies. Bonds let them trade interest rates and credit risk. Commodities let them trade things like oil, gold and wheat.
Prediction markets let them trade outcomes.
That outcome could be inflation above 3%, a Federal Reserve rate cut, a company hitting a sales target, the weather in New York or the winner of a football game.
The subjects can look completely unrelated, but the structure is largely the same. A question is defined, traders take opposing positions, the real-world event happens and the contract settles.
Our guide to how prediction markets work goes deeper into how those contracts are priced, traded and settled.
This is why prediction markets are starting to overlap more with traditional finance. The concept is no longer limited to elections, sports or novelty questions. It is increasingly being used to turn economic and financial forecasts into tradable markets.
Nasdaq's application is still pending, so there is no Nasdaq inflation market available to trade today. The proposal could still be changed, delayed or rejected.
But the bigger story goes beyond one inflation contract.
Nasdaq is not building another Polymarket. It is testing whether the same basic concept can become a normal part of financial markets.
If inflation contracts work, the obvious question is what comes next.
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