Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Preview, Lineups & Analysis
Updated November 2, 2026
Updated November 2, 2026
Atletico Madrid welcome newly crowned Ballon D'or winner Harry Kane and Bayern to the Metropolitano on Tuesday, hoping that they can finally have their European form match their domestic exploits.
Simeone's men are 16th in the Champions League, with 4 points from 3 games after their win over Manchester United in the previous matchday.
Bayern may be a surprisingly accommodating opponent. The perennial German champions have struggled of late, drawing 4 of their last 7 including draws with Viking, Arsenal and Dortmund.
They have a long injury list to contend with and may be missing Vincent Kompany from the touchline after his health scare last week.
Suspended: Morten Hjulmand
Doubts: Koke, Johnny Cardoso
What Changes: Hjulmand's absence means Obed Vargas is likely to partner Barrios if Koke is not fit to start, offering Atletico greater press resistance but less defensive stability.
Out: Luis Diaz (hamstring), Jamal Musiala, Buchmann, Saibari, Bara Ndiaye.
Doubts: Michael Olise (knee), Serge Gnabry (thigh), Manuel Neuer (foot) and Jonas Urbig (concussion)
What Changes: If both Diaz and Olise miss out, Bayern will be be heavily reliant on Lennart Karl for moments of creative inspiration, while Alphonso Davies will look to provide the pace out wide to stretch Atletico. Sven Ulreich could start in goal if Urbig is ruled out.
GK: Oblak
DEF: Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo
MID: G. Simeone, Barrios, Vargas, Baena
ATT: David, Alvarez
GK: Ulreich
DEF: Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Laimer
MID: Kimmich, Pavlovic; Karl Bischof, Davies
ATT: Kane
Ballon D'Or winner Kane has a lot more on his pate than usual on Tuesday. With Diaz missing and Olise a question mark, the England captain may need to provide both the goalscoring and creative threat against a typically stout Atletico defence.
Kane has underscored and overcreated according to advanced metrics this season, wth 4 goals from 6.16 xG in the Bundesliga and 6 assists from just 2.51 xA.
Atletico's defenders cannot just let him drop deep and pick their defence apart, and have a decision to make about man-marking Kane with Bayern's other superstar offensive weapons potentially missing out.
Atleti have kept six clean sheets in their last 10 games, and Morten Hjulmand has been at the base of that run. His red card at Stuttgart takes out the squad's best ball-winner, with 2.6 interceptions per 90, the most in Simeone's squad.
Pablo Barrios (2.0 per 90) now needs a new partner, and Koke and Johnny Cardoso are both short of match fitness. That's a problem against Joshua Kimmich.
He's in the top percentile among midfielders for touches, completing 89.7% of his passes with 50 accurate long balls, and he's created 10 chances, six of them big ones, in five starts.
If Kimmich is allowed to dictate from deep, Bayern can control the tempo even without their injured attackers. Atleti need to press him and Aleksandar Pavlovic early, or they'll spend the night chasing the ball.
Bayern's wide options have been wiped out in a week. Luis Diaz and Jamal Musiala were already out, then Serge Gnabry and Ismael Saibari were both injured against Dortmund on Saturday, and Michael Olise is waiting on a knee scan.
That puts a lot on 18-year-old Lennart Karl, who has one goal from 162 Bundesliga minutes, and on Alphonso Davies pushing further forward. Marcos Llorente and Alex Grimaldo will see the chance to attack instead of defend. Grimaldo and Alex Baena combine down the left, and Baena has three assists in his last six games.
If Atleti's full-backs pin Bayern's young wide players back, Harry Kane will be even more isolated, and Atleti's best route to goal opens up down the flanks.
Key Metric (2026/27 domestic league) | Atletico Madrid | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
xG per game | 1.61 (17.7 total) | 3.54 (28.3 total) |
xG conceded per game | 1.09 (12.0 total) | 0.90 (7.2 total) |
Goals conceded per game | 0.7 (fewest in La Liga) | 1.0 |
Big chances created per game | 2.9 | 6.0 |
Shots on target per game | 6.1 | 9.5 |
Average possession | 58.8% | 65.5% |
Possession won in final third per game | 4.0 | 6.0 (1st in Bundesliga) |
Clean sheets | 6 (joint 1st in La Liga) | 2 |
Atleti are outperforming at both ends. They’ve scored 22 La Liga goals from 17.7 xG and conceded 8 from 12.0 xG against, so their results sit about eight goals better than their chances. Bayern are the opposite.
They lead the Bundesliga in xG, xG conceded, big chances and shots on target, yet have missed 29 big chances, also the most in the league.
On the underlying numbers Bayern are the stronger side, the question is how much of that survives without the likes of Diaz and Saibari.
Player | Goals | Assists | xG | xA | Chances created |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Baena (ATM) | 5 | 2 | 1.45 | 2.13 | 24 |
Julian Alvarez (ATM) | 1 | 1 | 1.57 | 0.64 | 8 |
Harry Kane (BAY) | 4 | 6 | 6.16 | 2.51 | 17 |
Lennart Karl (BAY) | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 4 |
Alex Baena has five goals from just 1.45 xG, a finishing rate that won’t last. His creation is the more reliable part of his game. He’s made 24 chances this season, more than anyone else in this table, and he’s the link between Atleti’s midfield and Alvarez.
Alvarez has managed one goal and 1.57 xG, and only scored his first of the season at Stuttgart on October 20. If Baena’s finishing cools off and Alvarez stays quiet, Atleti’s scoring could dry up quickly.
Bayern create more than anyone in Germany, with 6.0 big chances a game, but they don’t convert enough of them.
Kane sums up an unusualy predicament for Bayern. He has 4 goals from 6.16 xG, and his 2.67 xGOT shows his shots on target have been easier for keepers to deal with than usual.
He’s made up for it as a creator, with 6 assists and 7 big chances created.
On Tuesday, with Diaz, Musiala, Gnabry and Saibari out and Olise a doubt, Bayern will rely more heavily on Kane and Kimmich, and on 18-year-old Lennart Karl stepping up.
ATS Expert Verdict
“Atleti's form flatters them, and Bayern's elite numbers come from a squad now missing four attackers. Without Hjulmand or Bayern's wide players, this looks tight and scrappy. My pick is Under 3.5 goals at 55¢ on Polymarket.”
The ATS Quantitative Model has crunched the numbers on this game. Get our model pick and edge by clicking on the link.
