Jay Sanin on December 19, 2024
Rico Dowdle projections and prop bets for Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys on Dec 22, 2024
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The Cowboys may pass less in this game (and call more carries) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Cowboys being a -4-point underdog this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: most in the league.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Cowboys profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year.
Rico Dowdle profiles as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching just 78.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 16th percentile.
Rico Dowdle's receiving efficiency has declined this year, notching just 5.05 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.44 rate last year.
Rico Dowdle's ability to generate extra yardage has declined this season, accumulating a measly 6.36 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 10.00 rate last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 10th-fewest in the league.
Rico Dowdle is projected to have 24.3 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a staggering 61.1 per game on average).
The model projects Rico Dowdle to garner 17.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Rico Dowdle has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (62.0) this season than he did last season (23.0).
This year, the fierce Buccaneers run defense has conceded a measly 4.72 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 25th-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Cowboys may pass less in this game (and call more carries) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Cowboys being a -4-point underdog this week.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 4th-least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Rico Dowdle is projected to have 68.3 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
