Jay Sanin on December 15, 2024
Juwan Johnson projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints on Dec 15, 2024
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
The Saints will be starting backup QB Jake Haener in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are heavy underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 136.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Juwan Johnson's 80.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects an impressive gain in his pass-catching skills over last season's 64.1% mark.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (55.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league this year.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.
Juwan Johnson is projected to have 3.6 Receptions in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The Saints will be starting backup QB Jake Haener in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are heavy underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 136.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week, Juwan Johnson is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 88th percentile among TEs with 5.8 targets.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (55.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
Juwan Johnson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league this year.
With a poor 3.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (18th percentile) this year, Juwan Johnson rates among the leading pass-game tight ends in the league in the open field.
Juwan Johnson is projected to have 40.8 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
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