Jay Sanin on January 9, 2025
Justin Herbert projections and prop bets for Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans on Jan 11, 2025
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the poor Texans defense has yielded a whopping 1.82 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the largest rate in the NFL.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 50.8% red zone pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
This year, the strong Houston Texans defense has given up a paltry 63.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the smallest rate in the league.
The Houston cornerbacks project as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Justin Herbert is projected to have 1.4 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
With a 62.2% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Chargers.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
In throwing a mere 0.16 interceptions per game this year, Justin Herbert ranks among the top quarterbacks in football (92nd percentile).
The Texans have intercepted 1.09 targets per game this year, ranking as the 2nd-best defense in the league by this statistic.
The Houston cornerbacks project as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Justin Herbert is projected to have 0.4 Interceptions in this weeks game.
Completions Prop Bet Odds:
With a 62.2% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Chargers.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
This year, the strong Houston Texans defense has given up a paltry 63.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the smallest rate in the league.
The Houston cornerbacks project as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Justin Herbert is projected to have 20.7 Completions in this weeks game.
Pass Attempts Prop Bet Odds:
With a 62.2% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Chargers.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
Justin Herbert is projected to have 32.7 Pass Attempts in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
With a 37.8% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least run-heavy team in the NFL has been the Chargers.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Houston's group of DEs has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.
Justin Herbert is projected to have 4 Carries in this weeks game.
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
With a 62.2% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Chargers.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
Justin Herbert has passed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (218.0) this year than he did last year (248.0).
This year, the strong Houston Texans defense has given up a paltry 63.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the smallest rate in the league.
The Texans pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, surrendering 7.10 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Justin Herbert is projected to have 236.7 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
Justin Herbert's 6.86 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season indicates a significant boost in his rushing ability over last season's 6.01 mark.
With a 37.8% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least run-heavy team in the NFL has been the Chargers.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the porous Houston Texans run defense has been gouged for a staggering 4.20 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing run game: the 19th-biggest rate in football.
Justin Herbert is projected to have 17 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
