2025 Formula 1 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix Preview & Prediction
Updated October 29, 2026
Updated October 29, 2026
McLaren enters the 2025 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix as the team to beat, with Oscar Piastri chasing his fourth consecutive race victory. The Australian has won four of the opening six races and leads the Drivers' Championship ahead of teammate Lando Norris.
However, Imola presents a different challenge. Max Verstappen has won the previous three editions of this race, Mercedes has been consistently competitive, and Ferrari faces mounting pressure to improve after a disappointing Miami Grand Prix.
The race takes place on Sunday, May 18, at the Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari. With the European portion of the season getting underway, the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix offers an important test of the leading teams' early-season form.
Below, we break down the contenders, historical betting odds, and our original Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix prediction.
Race details | Information |
|---|---|
Event | Formula 1 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix |
Date | Sunday, May 18, 2025 |
Circuit | Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari |
Location | Imola, Italy |
Race start | 9:00 a.m. ET |
Circuit length | 4.909 km |
Scheduled laps | 63 |
Race distance | 309.049 km |
Original best bet | Oscar Piastri +125 |
The Imola circuit is one of the more demanding venues on the Formula 1 calendar.
Its narrow layout, elevation changes, and combination of fast corners and technical sections reward precision. Overtaking can be difficult, making qualifying and track position especially important.
Teams also need to manage tire performance and race strategy carefully.
A strong starting position can make a substantial difference, particularly when the leading cars are closely matched.
The original ATS.io preview listed the following outright winner odds from bet365.
Driver | Team | Historical odds |
|---|---|---|
Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +125 |
Lando Norris | McLaren | +137 |
Max Verstappen | Red Bull | +600 |
George Russell | Mercedes | +1400 |
Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +2200 |
Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | +3300 |
Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | +3300 |
These are the original pre-race odds published in May 2025. They are retained for historical reference and are no longer available for betting.
Piastri and Norris are clear favorites, reflecting McLaren's outstanding start to the season.
Verstappen is the third choice at +600, a surprisingly generous price for a driver who has dominated recent races at Imola.
Russell offers a longer-priced alternative, while Ferrari's drivers enter the weekend as outsiders despite the team's home-race motivation.
For more information about the sportsbook featured in the original odds, read our bet365 sportsbook review.
McLaren has established itself as the strongest team through the opening six races of 2025.
Oscar Piastri leads the Drivers' Championship with 131 points, followed by teammate Lando Norris with 115.
Piastri's victory in Miami was his third consecutive win and fourth of the season.
That remarkable run has made him the favorite heading into Imola.
McLaren's performance is particularly impressive considering the team's struggles at this circuit in previous seasons.
The car has demonstrated excellent pace across different track layouts, and both drivers have shown they can compete for victories.
Piastri has been especially effective at converting opportunities into wins.
Norris remains a serious contender, although questions have emerged about his ability to consistently outperform his teammate under pressure.
At a circuit where qualifying and race execution are crucial, both McLaren drivers should be competitive.
The biggest question is whether either can prevent Verstappen from continuing his winning streak at Imola.
Max Verstappen enters the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix third in the Drivers' Championship with 99 points.
The reigning world champion finished fourth in Miami despite starting from pole position.
Red Bull has struggled to match McLaren's race pace consistently, but Verstappen remains one of the most dangerous drivers on the grid.
His record at Imola is particularly impressive.
Verstappen won the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix in 2021, 2022, and 2024, the three most recent editions before 2025.
The event was canceled in 2023 because of severe flooding.
That history makes him a serious contender despite his longer odds.
Verstappen's ability to extract maximum performance in qualifying could prove especially important on a circuit where overtaking is difficult.
If Red Bull can remain competitive over a full race distance, another victory is possible.
George Russell has been one of the most consistent drivers of the opening six races.
He finished third in Miami and enters Imola fourth in the championship with 93 points.
Russell has regularly extracted strong results from a Mercedes car that hasn't always been capable of challenging McLaren and Red Bull for outright victories.
His recent podium finish reinforces his credentials as a contender for another top-three result.
Mercedes also has an exciting young driver in Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
The Italian rookie finished sixth in Miami and has accumulated 48 championship points.
That puts him ahead of every other rookie and, at this stage of the season, Lewis Hamilton.
Antonelli will also be competing at home, adding another dimension to an already significant weekend.
His pace and early-season performances suggest a top-six finish is a realistic target.
Ferrari enters its home Grand Prix under considerable pressure.
Charles Leclerc finished seventh in Miami, while Lewis Hamilton came home eighth.
Both drivers expressed frustration with the team's strategy during the race.
Through six rounds, Ferrari's drivers have combined for just one Grand Prix podium.
The team sits fourth in the Constructors' Championship with 94 points, 11 behind Red Bull.
Those results fall short of expectations for a team featuring Leclerc and seven-time world champion Hamilton.
Imola provides an opportunity to respond in front of Ferrari's home supporters.
However, the team needs improvements in both pace and race execution to challenge for victory.
Leclerc and Hamilton remain talented enough to capitalize on mistakes from the leading teams, but their recent form makes them difficult to back as outright winners.
Piastri is the leading contender based on recent results.
Three consecutive victories demonstrate his outstanding form, while McLaren's pace has been difficult for its rivals to match.
At +125, Piastri offers a relatively short price, but there is a clear case for backing the championship leader.
He has been particularly effective at maintaining composure and converting strong performances into race wins.
Another clean weekend could put him in position for a fourth consecutive victory.
Norris is the closest challenger in the outright betting market.
He has the same machinery as Piastri and has demonstrated the pace required to win races.
However, Piastri has enjoyed the stronger run of results entering Imola.
Norris needs to deliver a complete weekend, beginning with qualifying.
A strong grid position would give him an opportunity to challenge his teammate and Verstappen.
Verstappen's price is worth examining.
He has won the previous three Emilia-Romagna Grands Prix and remains capable of producing exceptional qualifying laps.
Red Bull's race pace is the main concern.
McLaren has generally been stronger over longer distances, making it difficult to justify Verstappen as the favorite.
However, his experience and record at Imola make him a credible alternative at longer odds.
Russell has delivered consistent performances and enters the weekend following another podium finish.
Mercedes has shown enough pace to challenge for top-three positions when opportunities arise.
An outright victory would likely require some assistance from the leading contenders, but Russell deserves consideration in the podium markets.
His consistency is particularly valuable at a circuit where mistakes can be costly.
Antonelli has made an encouraging start to his Formula 1 career.
The Mercedes rookie finished sixth in Miami and has already accumulated 48 championship points.
A home race at Imola gives him another opportunity to demonstrate his ability.
Winning would be a major upset, but a top-six finish appears more realistic based on his early-season performances.
Best Bet: Oscar Piastri to Win (+125)
Our original selection for the 2025 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix is Oscar Piastri at +125.
There are two main reasons behind the pick.
Piastri enters the race with three consecutive victories.
His performances have been outstanding, and he has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to convert McLaren's pace into race wins.
McLaren has established a clear performance advantage over its rivals.
The team has been consistently stronger than the competition, particularly over race distances.
Piastri's recent form makes him the logical favorite.
Verstappen's record at Imola is impressive, but Red Bull has struggled to match McLaren's consistency this season.
Norris is another serious contender, although Piastri has been the more successful McLaren driver over the opening six rounds.
At +125, we favor the championship leader to extend his winning streak.
Market | Selection |
|---|---|
Outright winner | Oscar Piastri |
Team | McLaren |
Odds | +125 |
Bet type | Race winner |
Main reason | Three consecutive victories and McLaren's superior form |
→ Our Take: Piastri's recent victories and McLaren's pace make him the strongest selection entering Imola. Verstappen has the better record at this circuit, but Piastri has been the more consistent winner in 2025.
The original ATS.io preview projected the following top three.
Predicted position | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
1 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren |
2 | George Russell | Mercedes |
3 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
Piastri is our selection to win.
His confidence, consistency, and the strength of McLaren's car make him the leading candidate.
Russell has regularly delivered strong results and enters Imola following another podium in Miami.
His consistency makes him a credible candidate for second place.
Verstappen's outstanding record at Imola makes him difficult to overlook.
Even if Red Bull cannot match McLaren over a full race distance, his ability to maximize qualifying performance could help him secure another podium.
Antonelli has shown impressive pace throughout his rookie season.
His sixth-place finish in Miami supports the expectation that he can compete near the front of the midfield.
A top-six result at his home Grand Prix would represent another significant achievement.
Ferrari's recent struggles make a podium finish less likely for Leclerc or Hamilton unless the team finds a meaningful improvement.
Race date: May 18, 2025
Winner: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Max Verstappen won the 2025 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, securing his fourth consecutive victory at Imola.
The Red Bull driver finished 6.109 seconds ahead of Lando Norris, with Oscar Piastri completing the podium.
Piastri had started from pole position but was unable to convert his qualifying advantage into a race victory.
The result ended his run of three consecutive wins.
Position | Driver | Team | Gap to winner |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | Winner |
2 | Lando Norris | McLaren | +6.109s |
3 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +12.956s |
4 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | +14.356s |
5 | Alexander Albon | Williams | +17.945s |
6 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +20.774s |
7 | George Russell | Mercedes | +22.034s |
8 | Carlos Sainz | Williams | +22.898s |
9 | Isack Hadjar | Racing Bulls | +23.586s |
10 | Yuki Tsunoda | Red Bull | +26.446s |
Verstappen completed all 63 laps in 1:31:33.199.
He also recorded the fastest lap of the race with a time of 1:17.988.
Verstappen's victory began with an outstanding opening-lap move.
Piastri started from pole position, with Verstappen alongside him on the front row.
The Red Bull driver made an aggressive move around the outside at Tamburello, taking the lead from Piastri.
That overtake proved decisive.
Verstappen established control of the race and demonstrated stronger pace than many expected from Red Bull.
Race interruptions later introduced additional strategic challenges, but he maintained his advantage and secured the victory.
Norris finished second after moving ahead of his McLaren teammate, while Piastri had to settle for third.
The result reinforced Verstappen's remarkable record at Imola.
Piastri delivered an excellent qualifying performance, securing pole position with a lap of 1:14.670.
However, he lost the lead to Verstappen at the start.
That immediately changed the race.
With Verstappen controlling the pace and strategy playing an important role, Piastri was unable to recover first place.
He eventually finished third, 12.956 seconds behind the winner.
The podium still represented a valuable championship result, but it was insufficient to deliver a winning outright bet at +125.
Ferrari entered the weekend under pressure following its disappointing performance in Miami.
Qualifying did little to improve the situation.
Charles Leclerc qualified 11th, while Lewis Hamilton started 12th.
However, both drivers recovered during the race.
Hamilton finished fourth, his strongest Grand Prix result of the season to that point.
Leclerc finished sixth.
The recovery demonstrated Ferrari's ability to move forward during a race, although neither driver could challenge the leading three.
Russell entered the race as one of the original podium selections.
He qualified third, putting himself in a promising position.
However, Mercedes struggled to maintain the necessary pace over the race distance.
Russell eventually finished seventh, well outside the podium positions.
His result was one of the more disappointing outcomes for the pre-race prediction.
Antonelli's home Grand Prix ended in disappointment.
The Mercedes rookie qualified 13th but retired after completing 44 laps.
A throttle-related problem brought his race to an early end.
That meant the original expectation of a top-six finish was unsuccessful.
Despite his promising start to the season, Imola proved a difficult weekend for the young Italian.
The original article's main selection was Oscar Piastri to win at +125.
He finished third.
Original selection | Prediction | Actual result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
Best bet | Oscar Piastri to win (+125) | 3rd | Lost |
Podium prediction | Oscar Piastri 1st | 3rd | Incorrect position |
Podium prediction | George Russell 2nd | 7th | Incorrect position |
Podium prediction | Max Verstappen 3rd | 1st | Incorrect position |
Additional prediction | Antonelli top six | Retired | Lost |
Result: Lost
Piastri finished third, meaning the outright winner wager did not cash.
A $100 wager at +125 would have lost the original $100 stake.
Historical outright market result: Won
Verstappen was listed at +600 in the original betting odds.
A $100 winning wager at those odds would have generated $600 in profit.
However, Verstappen was not the original ATS.io best bet, so this outcome should not be counted as a successful published selection.
The predicted top three consisted of Piastri, Russell, and Verstappen.
Only Piastri and Verstappen finished on the podium, and neither finished in the projected position.
Russell finished seventh.
The prediction therefore did not correctly identify the podium order.
McLaren entered Imola with the strongest recent results.
However, Verstappen demonstrated that Red Bull could still challenge for victories.
His first-lap move and subsequent race pace were decisive.
The result also reinforced the importance of considering circuit-specific performance rather than relying entirely on recent form.
Piastri secured pole position but lost the lead on the opening lap.
At a circuit where track position is important, that moment had a major impact.
His qualifying performance was excellent, but Verstappen executed the race more effectively.
Despite missing out on victory, McLaren secured second and third places.
Norris and Piastri continued to accumulate valuable championship points.
The team remained highly competitive even on a weekend when Verstappen had the stronger race.
Hamilton's fourth-place finish and Leclerc's sixth-place result represented a recovery after poor qualifying performances.
Ferrari still lacked the pace to challenge for victory, but the result was more encouraging than its recent performances.
Russell finished seventh, while Antonelli retired.
The outcome contrasted sharply with Mercedes' promising results earlier in the season.
It also showed how quickly expectations can change between circuits.
Max Verstappen won the race for Red Bull on May 18, 2025.
Lando Norris finished second for McLaren, 6.109 seconds behind Verstappen.
Oscar Piastri finished third, 12.956 seconds behind the winner.
Oscar Piastri secured pole position with a qualifying lap of 1:14.670.
The original best bet was Oscar Piastri to win at +125.
No. Piastri finished third, so the outright winner wager lost.
The original ATS.io article listed Verstappen at +600.
Following his 2025 victory, Verstappen had won four consecutive editions of the race held at Imola: 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025.
Hamilton finished fourth for Ferrari.
Russell finished seventh for Mercedes.
Antonelli retired after completing 44 laps because of a throttle-related issue.
The race consisted of 63 laps.
Max Verstappen recorded the fastest lap with a time of 1:17.988.
The race takes place at the Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari in Imola, Italy.
The 2025 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix produced a result that went against the pre-race betting favorites.
Oscar Piastri entered as the championship leader and our original +125 selection after three consecutive victories.
However, Max Verstappen delivered an outstanding performance to win for the fourth consecutive time at Imola.
Piastri secured pole position but finished third, while teammate Lando Norris took second.
Mercedes struggled, Ferrari recovered valuable positions, and Verstappen demonstrated that Red Bull remained capable of winning despite McLaren's strong start to the season.
→ Our Take: Piastri was a reasonable favorite based on his recent victories and McLaren's pace, but Verstappen's Imola record deserved more weight. The Red Bull driver took the lead immediately and controlled the race, leaving our original Piastri +125 selection unsuccessful.
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Updated October 29, 2026
