Bologna vs Parma Prediction - November 7, 2026

Introduction

Parma vs Bologna prediction in Serie A Matchday 11 at Stadio Ennio Tardini points to a narrow Bologna win. Our model expects Bologna to take it 2-1. Parma sit 19th, but their underlying attack is only slightly worse than the table suggests, while Bologna’s league position understates how much better their xG and xGA profile has been than the raw results.

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Bologna (away team) (-108, Kalshi)
• ●Model Probability: 55.0%
• ●Market Probability: 51.9%
• ●Model Edge: +3.1 pp
• ●Entry Threshold: -108
• ●Model Confidence: 61/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Parma 1-2 Bologna
• ●Projected Total: 3.0 goals

Why This Position Stands Out

Bologna carry the clearer pricing edge, even after the market has shaded them as the stronger side. At -108, the break-even sits at 51.9%, while our model makes them 55.0%, so the edge clears the 3.0-point gate. The entry threshold stays at -108, which means the current price still fits the playable band. Bologna’s 1.59 xG per match is the stronger attacking base, and Parma’s 1.97 xGA per match points to a defense that keeps conceding quality chances. The main risk is Bologna’s finishing has lagged their chance volume. They’ve scored 8 from 12.72 xG, a -4.72 gap that can make a road favorite look less reliable than the table says. Parma also create 3.5 shots on target per match, so they can nick a goal if Bologna’s control slips. Still, Parma’s 0.86 xG per match is thin, and that leaves the away side with the cleaner win path.