Updated September 17, 2026
Looking for more ahead of Week 3? Check out our college football predictions for the latest matchups, model projections, and analysis.
LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt is doubtful for Saturday’s game against Ole Miss, and the news has already started to move the market. LSU was a bigger favorite earlier in the week, but the gap between the two teams has tightened with Leavitt’s status now up in the air.
So, has the LSU vs Ole Miss price moved enough? Let’s look at the latest on Leavitt, how the market has reacted, and whether there’s still any value before kickoff on Saturday night in Oxford.
The SEC released its first injury report for LSU vs. Ole Miss on Wednesday night, and there was one major surprise. LSU starting quarterback Sam Leavitt was listed as doubtful for Saturday night’s game in Oxford, as reported by ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
The news seemed to come out of nowhere. Leavitt showed no obvious signs of an injury against Louisiana Tech last Saturday and even spoke to reporters afterward without appearing to be in any pain. Kiffin also didn’t mention an injury when he met with the media earlier in the week.
Leavitt is reportedly dealing with soreness in his throwing shoulder. That leaves his status up in the air for one of LSU’s biggest games of the season and what was already going to be a highly anticipated return to Oxford for Kiffin.
With both teams among the early contenders in the conference race, Saturday’s result could also have a big impact on the SEC Championship futures market.
Earlier Wednesday, before Leavitt was listed as doubtful, LSU was trading around 60¢ on Polymarket, giving the Tigers roughly a 60% market probability of beating Ole Miss. That changed pretty quickly once the SEC injury report came out.
Around 9 p.m. ET, LSU’s price dropped all the way to 51¢, essentially turning the game into a pick’em with Ole Miss trading around 50¢.
That didn’t last long, though. The market quickly moved back toward LSU, with the Tigers climbing as high as 56¢ before settling around 55¢ early Thursday afternoon.
So, despite the initial reaction, LSU has only moved from around 60¢ to 55¢ since the injury news broke. That’s a small overall move for a starting quarterback who is officially listed as doubtful, which brings us to the next question: Why hasn’t the market moved more?
The most likely explanation for the relatively small move is pretty simple: Lane Kiffin could be up to his usual gamesmanship. Leavitt may really have a sore shoulder, but that doesn’t mean he won’t take the field on Saturday night.
Ole Miss seems to be thinking the same thing. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported Thursday morning that the Rebels’ staff has doubts about how sincere LSU is being with Leavitt’s doubtful designation and is preparing as if he’ll play.
There’s another possibility, though. Maybe the market just doesn’t think the drop-off from Leavitt to LSU’s backups is that big. Leavitt has rushed for 135 yards and five touchdowns through two games, but he’s also thrown four interceptions and just two touchdowns despite LSU winning both games comfortably.
LSU does have some talent behind him, though. Former five-star USC transfer Husan Longstreet and Elon transfer Landen Clark are next in line if Leavitt can’t go.
If Leavitt is actually ruled out, I’d expect LSU’s price to drop quickly. The initial move to around 51¢ on Wednesday night gives us at least some idea of where the market could go if there’s confirmation that he won’t play.
That doesn’t necessarily mean LSU would fall all the way back to 51¢. Some of that initial move was likely an overreaction to unexpected news, and traders have now had more time to account for Longstreet or Clark potentially starting.
Still, it’s hard to imagine LSU staying around 55¢ if Leavitt is officially out. I’d expect this market to get much closer to a true pick’em, with Ole Miss potentially even being priced as a slight favorite by kickoff.
Even with the uncertainty around Leavitt, our model still sees some value on LSU. After accounting for the injury concerns, it gives the Tigers a 55.5% chance to cover -2.5 compared to a current market price of 51¢ at Polymarket.
*Note: For more on Saturday night’s matchup, check out our full LSU vs Ole Miss prediction, where we break down both teams, the latest model projections, and what to expect in Oxford.
There’s obviously more risk here if Leavitt doesn’t play, but LSU has been the better team through two games. The Tigers are averaging 48 points and 586 yards per game while allowing just 12 points and 142 yards per game, and our model still projects a 31-27 LSU win.
At 51¢, I’m comfortable buying LSU -2.5 up to 54¢. I’d just keep an eye on Leavitt’s status before kickoff, because an official ruling either way could move this market quickly.
