The Toronto Argonauts head west for a Week 11 meeting with the Edmonton Elks on Saturday, August 15, with both clubs coming off very different results. Toronto escaped Calgary 33-30 on August 6, while Edmonton was beaten 48-30 by Montreal three days later. The Elks still enter with the stronger overall record at 6-3, while Toronto sits at 4-4 after winning 3 of its last 4 games. Edmonton has also been one of the CFL’s better home teams, going 3-1 at Commonwealth Stadium before this contest.
Toronto Argonauts vs Edmonton Elks Pick
- Pick: Edmonton Elks -3.5
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Toronto Argonauts vs Edmonton Elks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Toronto Argonauts 27 – Edmonton Elks 34
- Win Probability: Toronto Argonauts 42%, Edmonton Elks 58%
Edmonton gets the nod because of the home-field advantage, the stronger overall record and the production it has received from running back Justin Rankin. The Elks have also shown they can win in several different ways. They have produced high-scoring offensive outings, won close games and put together several strong defensive performances during their 6-3 start. They should put together another strong performance in this one.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Argonauts vs Edmonton Elks
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 15, 1:00 p.m. MT
- Venue: Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, Alberta
- Broadcast: TSN and CFL+
Toronto Argonauts vs Edmonton Elks Game Preview
Edmonton’s record has been built with meaningful contributions from both sides of the ball, and the Elks have been particularly effective at Commonwealth Stadium. Toronto, meanwhile, has spent much of the opening portion of the season away from its normal home environment because of the temporary schedule changes surrounding BMO Field. The Argonauts entered the week having played 8 games, with 7 of those contests on the road or in an opponent’s stadium.
Toronto’s offense remains the biggest reason to give the visitors a realistic chance. Kelly has the arm strength to attack Edmonton vertically, and the Argonauts have already demonstrated that their passing game can overwhelm a defense. Toronto scored 44 points against Ottawa earlier in the season, with Kelly throwing for 424 yards and 4 touchdowns while Kevin Mital caught 8 passes for 178 yards. Makai Polk has also emerged as an important scoring threat, catching 2 touchdown passes in Toronto’s 26-12 win over BC. The concern is whether Toronto can keep the ball away from Edmonton’s defense. Kelly’s production has come with an unusually high number of interceptions, creating short fields and putting added pressure on the Argonauts defense.
Edmonton’s offensive balance makes the Elks attractive on the moneyline. Cody Fajardo has been efficient enough to take advantage of favorable situations without having to carry the offense on every possession, while Rankin gives Edmonton a dynamic option on the ground and through the air. Rankin’s production was already drawing league-wide attention early in the season, and his ability to create explosive gains can force Toronto’s defense to commit additional players near the line of scrimmage.
Fajardo also enters this contest with evidence that he can produce against quality opposition. His 510-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Saskatchewan was one of the standout quarterback displays of the season, and Edmonton won that game 36-34. The Elks followed that result with another victory over Saskatchewan before dropping their most recent contest against Montreal.
In my opinion, the variety of the Edmonton offense will be too much for the Argos’ defense to overcome. I’ll lay the points with the Elks, who should continue their excellent start to the season by continuing to do what they have done on offense, while stifling the Argos offense just enough to win by a touchdown.
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