The Indiana Fever look to complete a rare back-to-back sweep at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Saturday night, riding the high of a 110-107 shootout win over Seattle in which Caitlin Clark dropped 45 points. Standing in the way is a New York Liberty club that has stumbled through a rough patch of late but still has a championship pedigree. With both teams banged up in the frontcourt and playoff seeding hanging in the balance for the Liberty, this Eastern Conference clash is an important one for both of these teams.
Our New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever Prediction
- Pick: New York Liberty -1.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever Model Projection
- Score Projection: New York Liberty 85 – Indiana Fever 81
- Win Probability: New York Liberty 58%, Indiana Fever 42%
New York enters as road favorites largely because of its defensive identity and the continuity of its Stewart-Jones-Ionescu core, all of whom have logged significant playoff minutes together. The Liberty rank among the stingier units in the league defensively, and even without two rotation pieces, their size with Jonquel Jones and Han Xu should give Indiana trouble on the interior with Aliyah Boston battling injury.
That said, this is far from a lock. Clark is coming off her best game of the 2026 season, Kelsey Mitchell has been a bucket-getter all year, and Indiana has the crowd behind them on the second leg of a home back-to-back. The absences of Leonie Fiebich and Satou Sabally thin out New York’s depth on the wing, which could open driving lanes for Clark and Mitchell throughout the night. Expect a tight, physical game that comes down to the final possessions.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Indiana Fever
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 18, 2026, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Broadcast: CBS
New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: New York Liberty Moneyline at -125
- Leg 2: Breanna Stewart Over 20.5 Points at -110
- Leg 3: Game Total Under 177.5 at -110
Combined odds: +525
Stewart has been New York’s primary scoring option all season and figures to see an even heavier workload with Fiebich and Sabally unavailable to soak up minutes, making the points prop the anchor of this ticket. The under ties in with both defenses tightening up in the paint given the injuries to Boston and the Liberty’s wing rotation, a combination that should slow the pace from the track meet these two produced in their earlier meeting this season.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Head-to-head this season: New York Liberty lead the series 1-0.
- New York Liberty road record: 6-6
- Indiana Fever home record: 9-5
- New York Liberty against the spread: 10-14
- Indiana Fever against the spread: 12-13
Stat Comparison
| Category | New York Liberty | Indiana Fever |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rating | 109.4 | 112.5 |
| Defensive Rating | 105.1 | 107.3 |
| Net Rating | +4.3 | +5.2 |
| Pace | 95.90 | 99.28 |
| Effective FG% | 53.5% | 54.4% |
| Rebound% | 52.2% | 53.3% |
Bettors may want to wait for confirmation that Aliyah Bostin is going to play before locking in any action on this game. If she does play, the Fever get much better in the rebounding and paint points areas. If she doesn’t, Indiana’s effective field goal percentage likely takes a hit. For now, we’ll go with the Liberty, but bettors may want to wait for more information before making that decision for themselves.
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