Manchester United vs Roma: Preview, Lineups & Expert Analysis
Updated November 3, 2026
Updated November 3, 2026
Manchester United’s season has hit rock bottom, and Michael Carrick could be fighting for his job when Roma visit Old Trafford on Tuesday.
The Red Devils are nine games without a win after Saturday’s 2-0 defeat at Chelsea, and have just 3 points from their first three league phase games.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s side arrive in a very different mood. Roma are unbeaten in Serie A and put five past Udinese at the weekend.
History is on United’s side, though. Roma have never won at Old Trafford.
Out: Benjamin Sesko (shin), Luke Shaw (knock), Marcus Rashford (hip), Patrick Dorgu (hamstring), Manuel Ugarte (knee)
What Changes: Kobbie Mainoo is back after a fortnight out and should start alongside Youri Tielemans. Lisandro Martinez was sent off at Chelsea, and while available for selection, his awful performance vs Chelsea may prompt Carrick to look elsewhere at centre-back. Luke Shaw and Dorgu's absences mean Diogo Dalot continues to deputise at left-back.
Out: Mile Svilar (toe), Manu Kone (thigh), Paulo Dybala (calf), Lorenzo Pellegrini (hamstring)
What Changes: With Svilar out, Pierluigi Gollini continues in goal. Kone's absence in midfield significantly reduces the ability of the Roma midfield to progress the ball, while Dybala's continued absence means creative duties fall to Soule.
GK: Lammens
DEF: Yoro, Maguire, Martinez, Dalot
MID: Mainoo, Tielemans; Amad, Fernandes, Cunha
ATT: Mbeumo
GK: Gollini
DEF: Ghilardi, N’Dicka, Hermoso
MID: Wesley, Cristante, de Roon, Molina; Soule, Mora
ATT: Malen
Donyell Malen is one of the most in-form strikers in Europe. He has eight Serie A goals from 7.72 xG and three more in the Champions League.
He’s averaging 1.25 goals per 90 and 5.5 shots per 90, and has 69 touches in the opposition box from just nine league games.
That’s a worrying prospect for a United defence conceding 1.7 goals a game in the Premier League, and it’s the first big test for Martinez since his red card at Stamford Bridge.
Fernandes remains United’s creative hub, with 19 chances created, the most in the squad, despite his public fallout with Carrick last month.
The problem is getting him on the ball. Roma win possession in the final third more than any other side in Serie A (4.7 per game), and United have failed to score in three of their last five games.
If Gasperini’s side can cut the supply to Fernandes, it’s hard to see where United’s goals come from.
United are yet to score from a set piece in the Premier League this season, and have conceded four, both among the worst records in the division.
Roma have four set-piece goals in Serie A, and Hermoso and N’Dicka will fancy their chances against a side that has struggled to defend dead balls all season.
Team Stats
Key Metric (2026/27 ) | Manchester United | Roma |
|---|---|---|
xG per game | 1.56 | 2.28 |
xG conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.42 |
Goals conceded per game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
Big chances created per game | 2.4 | 4.4 |
Shots on target per game | 5.0 | 6.3 |
Average possession | 54.8% | 56.3% |
Possession won in final third per game | 3.1 | 4.7 |
Clean sheets | 0 | 5 |
United's numbers are poor at both ends. They've conceded 15 league goals from 15.0 xG against, so the defending is as bad as it looks, and they're still waiting for their first Premier League clean sheet.
Going forward, a big chunk of their 14.0 xG came in one afternoon against Ipswich, and they have only beaten Sabah in the Champions League this season, suffering a humiliating 4-1 defeat to Como last time out.
Since then, they've scored just twice in their last five games in all competitions. Roma are the more complete side. They score more goals than anyone in Serie A (2.8 per game), and have kept five clean sheets.
Player | Goals | Assists | xG | xA | Chances created |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryan Mbeumo (MUN) | 4 | 0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 15 |
Bruno Fernandes (MUN) | 3 | 1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 19 |
Donyell Malen (ROM) | 8 | 1 | 7.72 | 0.38 | 13 |
Matias Soule (ROM) | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 17 |
United’s last win came against Sabah almost two months ago. Since then, they’ve drawn three and lost six, scoring just twice in their last five games while conceding 12.
Bryan Mbeumo has played every Premier League minute this season, but six big chances missed sum up United’s problems in front of goal.
Roma’s Old Trafford Hoodoo
Roma’s history in Manchester is grim. They’ve lost all four of their visits to Old Trafford, conceding 15 goals, including a 7-1 defeat in 2007.
They’ve also never won an away Champions League game against an English club (D3 L7). This Roma side looks different, though. They’re unbeaten in Serie A and have Malen in the form of his life.
ATS Expert Verdict
“History says United, but nothing about the last two months does. Roma are unbeaten in Serie A, Malen is scoring for fun and United can't keep a clean sheet. My pick is Roma to win at 33¢ on Polymarket.”
The ATS Quantitative Model has crunched the numbers on this game. Our matchup page has the model's projected result, its fair prices for the moneyline, spread and total, and how those compare with the live sportsbook and prediction market odds. Click through for our model pick and the edge behind it.
