Updated September 15, 2026
Liverpool host Tottenham at Anfield tonight in the EFL Cup, with the market still making the home side clear favorites despite recent attacking concerns for both teams. Liverpool are now 58¢ to win, but that price has moved too close to our projection to offer meaningful value. The better angle is the total: Tottenham have failed to score in four straight Premier League matches, while Liverpool have produced only 1.13 xG against Fulham and 0.69 xG at Ipswich in their last two league games. With both managers expected to rotate, Under 3.5 goals is the stronger data-backed play.
Why There's Value In the Goals Market
““The Liverpool moneyline has moved to 58¢ and no longer offers enough separation from our projection, but the total still does. Tottenham have gone four league games without scoring and generated only 0.64 xG against Everton, while Liverpool themselves have produced just 1.82 xG across their last two league matches. With both sides expected to rotate, the market is still asking for four goals to beat the under, which looks too high for two attacks currently producing limited high-quality chances.””
Liverpool moneyline has lost its edge
Liverpool are 58¢ against our 60% win probability, leaving only a two-point gap. That is too small to justify a trade.
Under 3.5 offers better separation
The market implies 61% for Under 3.5 goals, while our model gives it a 66% probability, creating a five-point edge.
The data supports a lower-scoring game
Tottenham’s weak chance creation, Liverpool’s recent xG decline and expected cup rotation all point toward fewer high-quality chances than the market is pricing.
Recommended Trade
Under 3.5 Goals
Current Price
61¢
Market Implied Proability
61%
ATS Model Probability:
66%
Model Edge:
5%
Fair Price:
66¢
Buy Up To:
63¢
Model Confidence:
72/100
Metric | Liverpool | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
Premier League Matches | 4 | 4 |
Goals | 6 | 0 |
Goals Against | 4 | 5 |
xG | 6.63 | 3.26 |
xGA | 5.87 | 8.05 |
xG Differential | +0.76 | -4.79 |
xG / 90 | 1.66 | 0.82 |
xGA / 90 | 1.47 | 2.01 |
Shots | 64 | 51 |
Shots / 90 | 16.0 | 12.8 |
Shots on Target | 21 | 12 |
xG / Shot | 0.104 | 0.064 |
The most important number is Tottenham’s 0.064 xG per shot. Spurs are not simply missing good chances, they are creating poor ones. Their 51 attempts have generated only 3.26 xG, which explains why four goalless league games should not be dismissed as finishing variance.
Tottenham’s goalless start is backed by the underlying numbers. They have generated just 3.26 xG in four league games, or 0.82 per match, and have failed to reach 1.10 xG in any individual fixture.
Their most recent 0-0 draw with Everton followed the same pattern. Spurs had plenty of the ball and 14 shots, but those attempts were worth only 0.64 xG, which points to a team struggling to turn possession into high-quality chances.
That makes it difficult to justify expecting Tottenham to contribute heavily to a four-goal game.
Liverpool’s overall xG profile is still much stronger than Tottenham’s, but their recent trend matters for this market.
After producing 3.01 xG at Newcastle and 1.77 against Nottingham Forest, they dropped to 0.69 xG at Ipswich and 1.13 against Fulham. That is only 1.82 xG across their last two league games, which is a much lower attacking baseline than the opening weeks suggested.
Liverpool should still create more than Spurs, but the current evidence does not support assuming a three- or four-goal performance from the home side.
Both managers are likely to rotate after a demanding start to the season. Liverpool are expected to give minutes to fringe and younger players, which should reduce attacking cohesion and make sustained pressure less reliable. Tottenham are also likely to change personnel, but that does not necessarily help their attack given how poorly the first-choice group has created chances.
That combination favors a lower-scoring game more than it favors either side of the moneyline.
The likely game state also supports the under. Liverpool should have more possession and more territory, but Tottenham’s current attacking limitations mean the hosts do not need to take excessive risks. If Liverpool score first, they can control the match rather than chase a second and third goal immediately.
Tottenham’s weak transition threat also reduces the chance of the game becoming stretched. That makes outcomes such as 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 more realistic than a shootout.
The biggest threat to this is the tactical matchup between the two managers. Iraola's tactical approach tends to limit control in a direct, high-pressing style, which could play into Spurs' hands given De Zerbi's love of press-baiting. Spurs will often hold the ball deep, invite the first line forward and then try to punch passes through midfield once the press has been drawn out.
The key question is whether Tottenham can create enough high-value chances to force Liverpool into an open game. So far, the answer has been no. Spurs are averaging 0.82 xG per game and only 0.064 xG per shot, while Liverpool themselves have seen their attacking output fall sharply over the last two league matches.
The Liverpool moneyline at 58¢ is now too close to fair value, but the total still offers separation. Our model gives Under 3.5 goals a 66% probability, compared with a market price near 61%.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Best trade: Under 3.5 Goals
