Premier League Gameweek 4 Analysis: Five Things We Learned and What the Prediction Markets Are Missing
Updated September 15, 2026
Editorial Review By: Henrik NormanSenior Sports & Casino Editor
Updated September 15, 2026
Editorial Review By: Henrik NormanSenior Sports & Casino Editor
The Premier League is well underway, and 4 games are enough to reveal trends without blindly trusting the table. Arsenal and Manchester City remain perfect, Leeds have climbed to third, Brighton just scored five and Tottenham still have not scored at all. Yet some of the most important signals from Gameweek 4 sit underneath those results.
Expected goals suggest Brighton's 5-0 win was less one-sided than the scoreline, Tottenham's attacking problems are very real and Chelsea's defensive issues are becoming difficult to dismiss. Meanwhile, the prediction markets are beginning to separate Arsenal and Manchester City despite almost identical starts.
Here are the five biggest things we learned from the weekend, what the underlying numbers say and where the prediction markets may need to adjust.
With four wins, 12 points each and 8 goals scored in their first 4 games, Arsenal and Manchester City have made an ominous start to the season.
The difference between the two teams is currently tiny on the pitch but considerably larger in the prediction markets. Arsenal have generated 6.93 xG while allowing only 2.64 xGA through four Premier League matches. Their +4.29 expected-goal differential is backed by an actual goal difference of +7.
Manchester City are not far behind. Enzo Maresca's side have generated 7.22 xG and conceded 3.56 xGA, while also scoring eight and allowing only two.
That makes the current title pricing interesting. The latest available Polymarket snapshot prices Arsenal at roughly 54¢ to retain the Premier League title, with Manchester City at 27¢. Chelsea sit at 10¢, Liverpool at 6¢ and Manchester United have dropped into the low single digits.
Arsenal deserve to be favorites. They are the defending champions, have continuity under Mikel Arteta and their defensive process remains exceptional. But should their title probability already be twice City's? That is harder to justify from the first four games.
City's derby victory deserves additional context because they played with ten men from the 23rd minute following Phil Foden's red card.
United nevertheless produced only two shots on target after the dismissal. City's ability to protect space and still create the decisive moment was arguably more informative than another comfortable possession-heavy victory would have been.
ATS Verdict
“Arsenal remain the most likely champions, but City at 27¢ are more interesting than Arsenal at 54¢ if that two-to-one gap persists. That is a price to monitor rather than an automatic trade.”
Four Premier League games, zero goals. For Tottenham, it would be easy to dismiss that as an unsustainable finishing slump, but their underlying numbers suggest something more fundamental is wrong.
Spurs have generated only 3.26 xG across four games, an average of 0.82 xG per match. At the other end they have conceded 8.05 xGA.
Against Everton, Tottenham had 14 shots and 59% possession, but only two attempts hit the target. Everton actually won the expected-goals battle 1.17 to 0.64. Possession therefore remains a misleading indicator of Tottenham's progress under Roberto De Zerbi. They are seeing plenty of the ball without consistently moving opponents enough to generate high-quality chances. That is much more concerning than simply missing a few big opportunities.
The next test is Aston Villa. Early prediction-market pricing makes Tottenham roughly 48¢ to win at home, compared with 28¢ for Villa and 27¢ for the draw. Villa are hardly an attractive opponent to back blindly. They have their own major underlying problems, and have struggled to find the net themselves in the Premier League this season.
But Tottenham being almost a 50% win proposition is significant when their current attacking process has generated less than one expected goal per game.
ATS Expert Verdict
“Tottenham remain a prove-it team. Their price should not be driven by the assumption that the goals simply have to arrive eventually, as their measly xG total shows that goal regression is far from guaranteed. The first thing to watch against Villa is not the final score. It is whether Spurs can create more than 1.5 xG and generate repeated touches in dangerous central areas, something they have failed to do so far this season.”
A five-goal away victory naturally attracts attention, and Brighton's underlying numbers so far this term would indicate that their demolition of lowly Coventry was no fluke. Fabian Hürzeler's team have now generated 10.27 xG in four matches, while scoring 13 goals from 78 shots. That is elite attacking production from a team still missing Yankuba Minteh through injury.
But there is another side to the Brighton profile. Coventry still generated 1.78 xG and six shots on target in Sunday's 5-0 defeat. Brighton produced 2.81 xG themselves, meaning the five-goal winning margin substantially overstated the difference in chance quality.
Coventry's red card in the 53rd minute also fundamentally changed the match, as did Joao Gomes' red card in the opening day hammering of Aston Villa. Across the season Brighton have conceded 7.78 xGA, almost double Arsenal's 2.64, and their sky high xG figure is significantly overblown by facing 10 men for 87 minutes already this season. While the Seagulls have the ability to cause Arsenal problems, their warped advanced metrics data is somewhat misleading for players considering backing the home side at 20¢.
Arsenal are currently priced at 58¢ to win at Brighton. Brighton sit around 20¢, with the draw at 24¢. A player reacting purely to the weekend might see five Brighton goals and consider 22¢ attractive. The data would appear to make the decision considerably more complicated, but in reality this may not be the case.
While Brighton have produced more xG than Arsenal this season, Arsenal have conceded barely one-third as much xG. Unless the Gunners themselves are reduced to 10 men, we will learn far more about Brighton's attacking prowess on Saturday.
ATS Expert Verdict
“Can Brighton maintain their attacking volume against the strongest defensive process they have faced? If they can, their current 13% top-four prediction-market probability starts to become much more interesting. If the sendings off against Aston Villa (4.0 xG) and Coventry (2.81 xG) have misrepresented their attacking output, then the Seagulls could be in for a long afternoon against the league's best defence.”
Liverpool are unbeaten so far this season, but they have also won only once in four Premier League matches. Those two facts neatly summarize the strange start to the Andoni Iraola era.
The Reds have generated 6.63 xG while conceding 5.87 xGA, leaving only a +0.76 expected-goal differential despite a squad that entered the season among the leading title challengers.
Saturday's 0-0 with Fulham was another example of the topsy turvy nature of the start of Iraola's tenure. Liverpool edged the shot count 14-10 but generated only 1.13 xG to Fulham's 0.71, just days after a promising performance against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. They have now drawn both of their opening league games at Anfield and three of their first four overall.
The concern is therefore not that Liverpool were unlucky not to score, it is that a team with Alexander Isak, Bradley Barcola and significant attacking quality is not consistently generating enough separation from its opponents. That is due in large part to what seems to be a vacuum between defence and attack. Liverpool's midfield curretly seem unable to keep up with the demands of their new coach, and while his style is not based on control, the lack of physicality from the likes of Dominik Szobozslai and Ryan Gravenberch is already frustrating the Anfield faithful.
It looks like the transition from Slot to Iraola is going to take quite some time.
Liverpool travel to Bournemouth next. The market has them at 45¢ to win, with Bournemouth at 31¢ and the draw at 26¢. That price would have looked remarkably low for Liverpool in previous seasons, but in thi season's context it looks much more understandable.
Bournemouth have generated 6.40 xG through four games despite remaining winless, so this is not an ideal matchup for a Liverpool side still allowing opponents too much access.
ATS market view: Don't buy Liverpool simply because 45¢ looks cheap next to the badge. Their underlying numbers need to improve before a sub-50¢ road price automatically becomes value.
Leeds' 4-1 win over Newcastle was the weekend's biggest statement result, but it was not a result built purely finishing variance either. Leeds won the expected-goals battle 1.91 to 0.85, created three big chances to Newcastle's one and outshot them 15-7. That supports the conclusion that Leeds deserved to win. What it does not support is treating them as a team that dominated by three goals on process. That distinction matters for prediction markets.
Leeds now sit third with eight points and remain unbeaten after four matches. Their home intensity, back-three structure and ability to attack quickly through the wing-backs caused Newcastle major problems, and the market has responded. Leeds are now at 54¢ at home to Crystal Palace, with Palace to win at 22¢.
The first phase was easy. There was significant distance between Leeds' price and process, as highlighted in our team preview before the start of the season.
Then they performed better than expected, and the question becomes whether markets have overcorrected. A 4-1 win on MNF naturally attracts public attention, but the underlying margin was closer to a clear Leeds victory than a demolition.
ATS market view: Leeds are no longer an automatic buy-low team. At 50¢ against Palace, we should demand another measurable advantage rather than paying for the Newcastle scoreline.
