Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Prediction: Tactics, Lineups & Market Value
Updated October 29, 2026
Updated October 29, 2026
Tottenham won 2-0 at Stamford Bridge last weekend with 0.98 xG, and one of the goals was a Mike Penders own goal. A week earlier they beat Coventry 3-1 while creating less than their visitors.
Two straight wins have pushed Spurs to 63¢ on Polymarket for Saturday's visit of Crystal Palace, a side sitting 17th after shipping five at Brighton. The table says that price is fair. The underlying numbers don't.
The ATS Quantitative Model sees a whopping +11% edge on backing Crystal Palace +1.5 at 62¢.
Crystal Palace
Tottenham Hotspur
| Sportsbook | CRY | TOT |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 62.0¢ | -1.5 39.1¢ |
| Polymarket | +1.5 62.0¢ | -1.5 39.1¢ |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -190 | -1.5 +134 |
| Sportsbook | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 2.5 60.9¢ | 2.5 41.0¢ |
| Polymarket | 2.5 60.0¢ | 2.5 41.0¢ |
| FanDuel | 2.5 -172 | 3.5 -184 |
| BetMGM | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +130 |
| BetRivers | 2.5 -177 | 2.5 +138 |
| Sportsbook | CRY | TOT | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 17.0¢ | 64.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| Polymarket | 17.0¢ | 63.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| FanDuel | +460 | -195 | +340 |
| BetMGM | +475 | -190 | +333 |
| Fanatics | +475 | -190 | +350 |
| DraftKings | +450 | -180 | +350 |
| BetRivers | +460 | -182 | +340 |
Don't follow the noise around Spurs
Spurs may have recorded back-to-back league wins for the first time since the start of last season, but their metrics still flatter to deceive. They beat Coventry 3-1 while losing the xG battle 1.14 to 0.97, then won at Stamford Bridge with 0.98 xG and a goalkeeper's own goal doing half the work. Palace are the weaker team, but a side producing 1.59 xG on the road shouldn't be priced like a pushover against an attack this blunt.
Spurs aren't creating much at home
Roberto De Zerbi's side average 1.14 xG per game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and they've won just one of their four home league games. Their open-play chances are poor quality at 0.09 xG per shot, the kind of numbers that make two-goal wins hard to come by. They've scored eight league goals all season, and three came in that Coventry game. James Maddison is a doubt with a groin injury, and Spurs have lacked creativity without him.
Palace's attack is better than their results
Pierre Sage's side have been awful defensively, but they create. Palace average 1.59 xG away from home, and they had 17 shots and 2.03 xG against Newcastle last weekend despite losing 2-0. Jean-Philippe Mateta is back in the XI, and he's piled up 3.20 xG in just 157 league minutes without scoring. Mateta is a proven Premier League goalscorer and this finishing streak is unlikely to continue.
Recommended Position:
Palace +1.5
Current Price:
62¢
Model Probability:
73%
Market Probability:
62%
Model Edge:
+11%
Entry Threshold:
66¢ or lower
Model Confidence:
60/100
Why Palace Will Cover the Spread
“Spurs have won two in a row and looked the most cohesive they have looked all season at Stamford Bridge, but they are far from the finished article. Meanwhile, Palace have the attacking threat to cause the Spurs defence plenty of headaches. I still favour Spurs to win, but I don't see it being the comfortable win the markets are implying.”
Metric | Tottenham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
xG / xGA | 9.81 / 11.66 | 12.49 / 17.33 |
xG per game | 1.23 | 1.56 |
xGA per game | 1.46 | 2.17 |
Expected points | 10.70 | 8.19 |
Shots per game | 14.5 | 11.1 |
Shots conceded per game | 13.4 | 17.0 |
Open-play xG per shot | 0.09 | 0.16 |
xG / xGA per game, last five | 1.29 / 1.16 | 1.40 / 2.09 |
xG / xGA per game, home / away | 1.14 / 1.37 at home | 1.59 / 1.92 away |
Last league match xG | 0.98 vs 0.46 (W 2-0 at Chelsea) | 2.03 vs 1.30 (L 0-2 vs Newcastle) |
Player | Team | Goals | Assists | xG | xA | Key passes per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dominic Solanke | Tottenham | 1 | 1 | 1.85 | 0.23 | 0.70 |
Andy Robertson | Tottenham | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 1.50 | 1.79 |
Mohammed Kudus | Tottenham | 0 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.70 | 1.52 |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | 0 | 0 | 3.20 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
Eddie Nketiah | Crystal Palace | 0 | 1 | 1.36 | 1.73 | 1.49 |
Yeremy Pino | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 1.96 |
Spurs sit 14th with 9 points, and their underlying numbers are about where that suggests. They've produced 9.81 xG and allowed 11.66, and their expected points total of 10.70 is only slightly ahead of their actual haul. At home they're 16th on xG. The recent upturn has come from finishing rather than chance creation: 1.29 xG per game across the last five league matches.
Palace are a mess at the back. They've allowed 17.33 xGA, the second-highest total in the league, and 17 shots per game. That's why they're not the pick to win outright. Going forward, though, they average 1.56 xG per game, more than Spurs, with 0.16 xG per open-play shot.
De Zerbi's 4-2-3-1 will have plenty of the ball. Spurs had 68.5% possession at Chelsea, and Palace will happily sit in their 3-4-2-1 and wait. With Rodrigo Bentancur suspended, Archie Gray steps into midfield beside Sandro Tonali, and Pedro Porro returns at right-back.
The problem is what Spurs do with possession. Without Maddison, they lack someone to unpick a deep back three, and Solanke and Marmoush have just two league goals between them. Expect a lot of crosses for Axel Disasi and Chris Richards to deal with.
Palace's threat comes on the break and from set pieces. They've generated 2.66 xG from set pieces at 0.30 xG per shot, so dead balls are a real outlet. Adam Wharton's passing from deep finds Pino and Dwight McNeil early, and Mateta gives them a target.
The risk to the pick is Palace's defending. They conceded three inside ten minutes at Brighton, and an early Spurs goal would change the game. If Palace keep it level past the hour, Spurs will need to take risks, and Palace's counter becomes dangerous.
Suspended: Rodrigo Bentancur
Out: Destiny Udogie (knee), Savio, Mykhailo Mudryk, Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert
Doubtful: James Maddison (groin)
Working back: Lucas Bergvall (knee), Tosin Adarabioyo (calf)
Out: Takehiro Tomiyasu, Quinten Timber
Fitness watch: Dean Henderson (back in training)
Tottenham predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Kinsky; Porro, Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Robertson; Tonali, Gray; Kudus, Fernandes, Tel; Solanke
Crystal Palace predicted XI (3-4-2-1): Benitez; Canvot, Disasi, Richards; Khalaili, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; Pino, McNeil; Mateta
