Devils vs Red Wings Prediction Market Preview: Rest Could Tip the Balance
Updated October 13, 2026
Updated October 13, 2026
The New Jersey Devils visit the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday, October 13, to kick off NHL Frozen Frenzy. Unfortunately for both teams, there hasn't been much to celebrate during the opening weeks of the season.
New Jersey is 2-3-0 after Monday's 4-1 defeat against Ottawa, while Detroit sits at 1-3-1 following a shootout loss to Montreal. Neither team has been particularly convincing, especially offensively, and that's reflected in the prediction markets, where we're looking at something close to a coin flip.
I give the Red Wings a slight advantage here, primarily because they're playing at home against a Devils team coming off a game the previous night. That being said, Detroit hasn't exactly been setting the league on fire either, so I'm not particularly enthusiastic about paying a premium for the home team.
Kalshi and Polymarket have very little separating these teams. Detroit is trading around 50–51¢, with New Jersey sitting at approximately 50¢.
I think the market has this one pretty much right. New Jersey has more offensive firepower on paper, but Detroit has home ice and the scheduling advantage. Neither side has done enough so far to justify being a clear favorite.
My projection puts Detroit around 53–54%, which gives us a small discrepancy compared with the market. However, once we account for trading fees, I'm not convinced there's much value at the current prices.
The Devils have scored just 11 goals through five games, which is hardly what we expected from a team featuring Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt.
Monday's 4-1 loss against Ottawa pretty much sums up their early-season struggles. New Jersey outshot the Senators 30-20 and dominated the shot attempts 80-45, but still came away with a three-goal defeat. Creating opportunities is obviously encouraging, but at some point, those chances need to turn into actual goals.
There have been some positives. Hischier scored twice on the power play against Vancouver on Saturday, while Hughes has collected five points through five games. The talent is there, and I don't expect New Jersey to continue struggling offensively throughout the season.
What worries me more about Tuesday is the schedule. The Devils played Ottawa on Monday, took nine penalties in that game, and now have to travel to Detroit for another matchup less than 24 hours later.
That's not an ideal situation, particularly for a team that hasn't found its rhythm yet.
If New Jersey has been frustrating offensively, Detroit hasn't been much better.
The Red Wings have managed just one victory through five games and have already been shut out twice. Their latest outing was a 1-0 shootout loss against Montreal on Saturday, despite putting 30 shots on goal.
However, I wouldn't read too much into Detroit's record just yet. The Red Wings outshot Seattle 41-24 in their previous game but still lost 6-3. There have been enough offensive opportunities to suggest that the results could improve, although defensive mistakes and poor finishing have been costly.
Alex DeBrincat leads the team with five points, while Viktor Arvidsson has contributed three goals. Lucas Raymond has four assists, and having Dylan Larkin back in the lineup is obviously important.
I still have plenty of questions about Detroit, particularly defensively, but this looks like a decent opportunity to get things moving in the right direction.
The Red Wings are at home, they've had a couple of days to recover, and they're facing an opponent that had to play the previous night. If they can't take advantage of that situation, we might have to start asking some tougher questions about Detroit's early-season form.
Jake Allen is confirmed to start for New Jersey after Nico Daws played against Ottawa on Monday. Allen has started the season 2-1-0, with a 2.65 goals-against average and a .896 save percentage.
Detroit's goaltending situation is a little less straightforward. John Gibson is the projected starter, but Daniil Tarasov is also an option after stopping all 30 shots he faced against Montreal.
Gibson hasn't enjoyed a particularly impressive start, and that's something I would consider before taking a position on Detroit. A favorable scheduling spot doesn't mean much if your goaltender struggles to keep the puck out of the net.
There are also injuries to consider. New Jersey is missing Nick Bjugstad and has been without Connor Brown, while Detroit has concerns surrounding Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton and J.T. Compher.
For me, the final goaltending assignments are the biggest remaining piece of the puzzle.
We're only a handful of games into the season, so I'm not prepared to draw any major conclusions about either team. New Jersey has plenty of talent and should eventually start scoring more consistently, while Detroit has shown flashes of decent hockey without much to show for it.
Still, I prefer the Red Wings in this particular matchup.
The scheduling situation is the biggest reason. Detroit has had time to recover and prepare, while New Jersey arrives after a frustrating loss against Ottawa. Add home ice to the equation, and I think the Red Wings deserve to be slight favorites.
Does that make them an attractive trading opportunity? Not necessarily.
At around 50–51¢, we're already paying close to what I consider a fair price. I'd be more interested if Detroit dropped into the high-40¢ range, assuming there are no unpleasant surprises with the starting lineup.
Prediction | My assessment |
|---|---|
Projected winner | Detroit Red Wings |
Projected score | Detroit 3, New Jersey 2 |
Estimated Detroit win probability | 53–54% |
Preferred entry | Detroit in the high-40¢ range |
Current recommendation | Wait for a better price |
I expect a fairly tight contest, and I wouldn't be surprised if this one goes beyond regulation.
My pick is Detroit, mostly because of the back-to-back situation for Devils. But wait for better value as at the current prices, I'd rather watch the market than force a trade. There's nothing wrong with sitting one out, even when it's the opening game of Frozen Frenzy.
