Updated September 18, 2026
If there is one takeaway, it is that finishing sixth or seventh in this division does not necessarily mean being a bad hockey team. The Atlantic simply has very few easy nights in 2026–27.
The Atlantic Division might be the hardest division in the NHL to project entering 2026–27.
Buffalo won it with 109 points last season. Montreal reached the Eastern Conference Final. Tampa Bay finished with 106 points, while Boston and Ottawa also made the playoffs. At the other end, traditional contenders Florida and Toronto both missed the postseason.
Now the division gets even more important. The NHL has expanded to an 84-game schedule, meaning every Atlantic team will play each divisional rival four times.
Our expectation is another deep division, but with a different team returning to the top.
| Rank | Team | 2025–26 Points | Our Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Panthers | 84 | Division winner |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 106 | Division contender |
| 3 | Montreal Canadiens | 106 | Playoff team |
| 4 | Buffalo Sabres | 109 | Playoff contender |
| 5 | Boston Bruins | 100 | Wild-card contender |
| 6 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 78 | Bounce-back candidate |
| 7 | Ottawa Senators | 99 | Wild-card contender |
| 8 | Detroit Red Wings | 92 | Outside looking in |
The betting market also sees Florida and Tampa Bay as the clear teams to beat, with Montreal, Toronto, Buffalo and Ottawa forming the next group.
Florida going from seventh place to first might look aggressive, but last season was hardly a normal year for the Panthers.
Injuries hit Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett, Seth Jones and several other key players as Florida's run of three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances finally caught up with it. Health remains a concern entering this season, with Brad Marchand expected to miss the start.
The roster is also different. Florida acquired Brady Tkachuk from Ottawa, reuniting him with Matthew, while Radko Gudas returned and Jacob Markstrom replaces Sergei Bobrovsky in net.
Goaltending is the obvious question — Markstrom posted an .883 save percentage last season — but the skater group is deep enough for Florida to rebound sharply. We also have the Panthers among the leading teams in our 2026–27 Stanley Cup favorites.
There is very little reason to expect Tampa Bay to disappear.
The Lightning won 50 games last season and still have Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel and Andrei Vasilevskiy forming one of the strongest veteran cores in hockey. Tampa ranked second in the NHL in high-danger goals last season.
There were changes, though. Darren Raddysh left for Toronto after a 70-point season, while Nick Paul and Oliver Bjorkstrand are also gone. John Carlson was signed to help replace Raddysh's offense from the blue line, and Ilya Mikheyev adds another experienced forward.
Our concern is less about Tampa's regular-season floor and more about whether an aging core can stay at the very top. Still, this looks like the safest challenger to Florida.
Montreal's rise is no longer theoretical.
The Canadiens finished with 106 points and reached the Eastern Conference Final last season. Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky give Montreal an established first line, while Ivan Demidov and Lane Hutson are part of a young core that could still get considerably better.
The main question is depth. Montreal still needs a reliable second-line center, with Oliver Kapanen, Kirby Dach and others in the mix, while Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler give the Canadiens a young but relatively inexperienced goaltending tandem.
Montreal doesn't need another huge leap to challenge for the division. Simply maintaining last year's level while its younger players improve could be enough to keep the Canadiens near the top.
Buffalo was the best regular-season team in the Atlantic last year, going 50-23-9 before reaching Game 7 of the second round. That makes dropping the Sabres to fourth one of the bigger calls in this preview.
The concern is what Buffalo lost.
Alex Tuch left for Washington after scoring 33 goals, while Bowen Byram was traded to Chicago after producing a career-high 42 points from the blue line. Olen Zellweger was acquired to help replace Byram, but those are two significant pieces to remove from a division-winning roster.
Buffalo still has an exciting young core around Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Benson and several emerging forwards. We aren't predicting a collapse. The difference is that the Atlantic leaves almost no margin for regression.
The market appears much more skeptical about Boston than we are.
The Bruins quietly won 45 games and finished with 100 points last season despite entering the year with questions about their scoring depth. David Pastrnak remains the centerpiece, while Boston added JJ Peterka after he scored 25 goals for Utah.
The intriguing part is the younger talent underneath. James Hagens could push for an NHL role, while Fraser Minten, Marat Khusnutdinov and others give Boston more upside than the roster had a year ago.
Viktor Arvidsson's departure removes 25 goals, so Boston is not obviously better. But after a 100-point season, the Bruins look like one of the more interesting teams being treated as an Atlantic long shot.
No Atlantic team changed more than Toronto.
The Maple Leafs finished dead last at 32-36-14, then responded with an aggressive overhaul. Sergei Bobrovsky was signed to become the No. 1 goalie, Darren Raddysh arrived after scoring 70 points from Tampa Bay's blue line, and Toronto selected Gavin McKenna with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.
McKenna could immediately join a top six that already includes Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares. Toronto also added Nick Paul, Jack Roslovic and several depth pieces.
There are enough changes here that last year's 78-point finish shouldn't be treated as the baseline. The Leafs remain difficult to project, but they are our strongest candidate to make a major jump up the standings.
Ottawa's 99-point season confirmed that the Senators can compete for a playoff spot. The question is how they respond to losing the face of the franchise.
Brady Tkachuk requested a trade and was sent to Florida after producing 59 points in 60 games. Ottawa added William Eklund and André Burakovsky to replace some of that offense, while Drake Batherson is coming off a career-high 71-point season and has now signed a long-term extension.
There is still plenty to like around Tim Stützle, Batherson, Jake Sanderson and Linus Ullmark. But replacing Tkachuk's combination of scoring, physicality and leadership is not straightforward.
Ottawa can absolutely make the playoffs again. We simply see more upside in several of the teams around it.
Detroit might be the toughest team in the division to evaluate.
The Red Wings won 41 games last season but missed the playoffs for the 10th consecutive year. They added Viktor Arvidsson after his 25-goal season in Boston, but Patrick Kane departed and the organization enters the season with considerably bigger questions than its offseason additions.
Dylan Larkin requested a trade during the offseason and will not return as captain, while Steve Yzerman has moved out of the general manager role. Detroit will begin the season without a captain as it continues searching for new hockey leadership.
Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider remain high-end building blocks, but uncertainty around Larkin makes it difficult to project Detroit ahead of seven Atlantic teams that all have credible playoff cases.
The Atlantic could again send four or even five teams into the playoff race, and heading into the season, Detroit is the only team that does not look like a realistic playoff contender.
Florida is our pick to finish first because last season's 84 points undersold the quality of a roster that had been to three straight Stanley Cup Finals and has now added Brady Tkachuk. Tampa Bay remains the safest alternative, while Montreal looks increasingly capable of staying among the conference's best teams.
The most difficult calls come underneath them. Buffalo won the division last year but lost two major contributors. Boston appears undervalued after a 100-point season. Toronto could be dramatically better after its offseason overhaul, while Ottawa and Detroit face more significant questions.
Our projected Atlantic standings:
