Updated September 18, 2026
Andoni Iraola walks into Vitality Stadium on Sunday as the away manager for the first time in his career, and the opponent is the club he spent three seasons building into a Europa League side. Marco Rose's Bournemouth remain without a win, while Iraola hasn't had the smoothest start on Merseyside. We're covering the full Bournemouth vs Liverpool player props board here, anytime goalscorer, shots on target, and assists, priced from Polymarket and Kalshi alongside the major US sportsbooks.
*Note: Prediction market prices shown are from Polymarket and Kalshi and will move as the market trades, sometimes by several cents in the hours before kickoff. A cents price on these markets is just the implied probability written differently. YES at 45 cents; means the market's pricing that outcome at roughly a 45% chance, not a payout multiplier the way sportsbook odds work. Where you see an "ATS Model" read below, that's our own quick projection from each player's scoring rate this season, not a live market or sportsbook price, treat it as a sanity check against whatever number you're actually looking at.
Our Pick: YES at 43¢ or lower
ATS Probability: 46%
Minimum Edge at Buy Price: +3%
If Liverpool score, the underlying data makes Alexander Isak the obvious player to isolate rather than blindly buying Liverpool's team total.
Isak has 3.0 non-penalty xG through four league appearances, converting it into three goals. He has attempted 12 shots, put six on target and accumulated that production in 362 minutes. His 0.76 npxG per 90 ranks among the strongest centre-forward numbers in the league at this early stage.
More importantly, the chance quality has been excellent. His average attempt this season has been worth 0.29 xG, while half of his shots have hit the target. That is a much more convincing scorer profile than simply pointing to his three goals.
We have deliberately regressed his current 0.76 npxG/90 rather than projecting it forward unchanged. That pulls our anytime scoring probability down to 46%.
That creates a straightforward price rule. Buy YES at 43¢ or lower. Pass at 44¢+. A 43¢ entry leaves the required three-point model edge intact and avoids chasing Isak simply because he is the most recognizable scorer in the matchup.
For comparison, traditional sportsbook prices are currently clustered near +140 to +150, equivalent to roughly 40% to 42% before accounting for vig.
Our Pick: YES at 32¢ or lower
ATS Probability: 35%
Minimum Edge at Buy Price: +3%
Marcus Tavernier has scored three goals in four Premier League games, matching Alexander Isak's total, while leading Bournemouth with 13 shots and adding eight chances created.
The raw scoring rate is eye-catching, but the shot volume is the more useful signal. Tavernier is averaging more than three attempts per game and has become one of Bournemouth's main attacking outlets rather than relying on an unsustainable finishing streak.
His opportunity could also increase against Liverpool. Bournemouth are without Eli Kroupi and Amine Adli, removing two players who would normally absorb part of the attacking workload. That should leave Tavernier with a greater share of Bournemouth's shots and touches around the penalty area.
A simple Poisson model based purely on his three goals in four appearances would put his scoring probability above 50%, but that is far too aggressive to carry forward from such a small sample, particularly for a player who does not operate as a conventional No. 9.
We have therefore regressed that rate heavily while still accounting for his shot volume, arriving at an ATS anytime scoring probability of 35%.
That gives us a clear price threshold. Buy YES at 32¢ or lower. Pass at 33¢+. At 32¢, Tavernier retains the three-percentage-point edge we require before recommending a prop, while avoiding paying for a four-game scoring run that is unlikely to continue at its current rate.
Our Pick: YES at 27¢ or lower
ATS Probability: 30%
Minimum Edge at Buy Price: +3%
Evanilson is the more interesting contrarian goalscorer prop. He is without a Premier League goal this season, but boasts 1.4 npxG in 358 minutes. He has started all four league matches and is Bournemouth's central striker, yet none of his six shots has resulted in a goal.
The longer-term data makes that drought more interesting. Understat's 2025-26 numbers credited Evanilson with 11.8 xG, while his broader underlying profile consistently placed him at the centre of Bournemouth's highest-value attacks.
This is not a case for blindly betting on "positive regression." His zero shots on target this season matters, and Liverpool have allowed only 1.18 xGA per game through their opening four league matches. That is why our number remains only 30%.
At 27¢ or below, however, the gap becomes large enough to trade. Above that point there is no reason to force the position.
Both Teams to Score: Yes is currently about 68¢ on Kalshi. Our xG blend produces a 64% probability, so the market is actually charging too much for the obvious "both attacks are dangerous" narrative.
The same applies to Bournemouth +1.5 at 77¢ on Polymarket. Our model lands at 78%, which is nowhere near enough separation to justify a trade after accounting for model uncertainty and market friction.
That leaves the Under 3.5 as the best current market position, with Isak and Evanilson becoming actionable only if their goalscorer prices fall through the specified thresholds. It is a much stronger page editorially than presenting three picks simply because three markets exist.
You can find our data-driven model projection and prediction for Bournemouth vs Liverpool here.