The Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic men’s hockey tournament begins on Wednesday and one of the first games on the slate is Italy vs Sweden. This contest pits the hosts against one of the leading contenders for a medal with Sweden entering as an overwhelming favorite according to current betting odds. Sweden’s roster is stacked with NHL talent and high-level international scorers, while Italy’s squad is composed mostly of players from European professional leagues and will be looking to compete with an elite opponent. Before this game begins, keep reading for my Italy vs Sweden prediction on the ice.
Our Sweden vs Italy Pick
Pick:
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Sweden vs Italy
- Date & Time: Wednesday, February 11, 2026, 3:10 PM ET
- Venue: Milano Santagiulia Arena
- Broadcast: USA and Peacock
Key Storylines
Goaltending
Swedish goaltending is expected to be a strength with reliable netminders who have NHL experience, including New Jersey Devil Jacob Markstom and a pair of Minnesota Wild goalies. Their stability in the crease will be vital in keeping Italy’s limited attack at bay while giving Sweden confidence to take offensive risks. Italy’s goaltending situation lacks an NHL-level starter, and while their netminder can make timely saves, the anticipated volume and quality of shots from Sweden could create significant pressure throughout the game.
Key skaters
Sweden’s roster is loaded, with players like William Nylander and Mika Zibanejad leading them into the Milano-Cortina games. Their top lines are full of players with NHL scoring experience and international success, making them difficult for Italy’s defenders to contain. Italy’s key skaters include veterans from European leagues and a few players who have seen limited North American professional experience, but they don’t have a single player who is currently in the NHL and that is a problem.
Home-ice advantage
One thing that Italy does have working for it is home-ice advantage throughout this tournament. That might not be enough to help them overcome the huge talent gap between themselves and teams like Sweden. But if the Italian team can feed off the energy of their home crowd, it is at least possible that they can compete early in this game and stay in a position to steal this matchup down the stretch.
Sweden vs Italy Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
