Jay Sanin on January 26, 2025
Zach Ertz projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles on Jan 26, 2025
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
At a -6-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
In this week's game, Zach Ertz is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile among TEs with 5.3 targets.
Zach Ertz has been a big part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 17.5% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
With an excellent 3.5 adjusted catches per game (83rd percentile) this year, Zach Ertz rates as one of the best pass-game tight ends in football.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 54.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Commanders are anticipated by our trusted projection set to call just 64.8 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Philadelphia Eagles, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 27.8 per game) this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.8%) to TEs this year (71.8%).
The Eagles linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.
Zach Ertz is projected to have 3.5 Receptions in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
At a -6-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
In this week's game, Zach Ertz is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile among TEs with 5.3 targets.
Zach Ertz has been a big part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 17.5% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz's 36.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents an impressive progression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 27.0 rate.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 54.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Commanders are anticipated by our trusted projection set to call just 64.8 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Philadelphia Eagles, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 27.8 per game) this year.
The Eagles defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 33.0) vs. TEs this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against tight ends this year, allowing 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in football.
Zach Ertz is projected to have 31.5 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
