Zach Ertz projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles on Nov 14, 2024
Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 3.5 over: -125
- Receptions 3.5 under: -105
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
This week, Zach Ertz is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.6 targets.
Zach Ertz has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 19.2% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Washington Commanders grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.
With a fantastic 3.7 adjusted receptions per game (85th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz places as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 29.13 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Commanders as the 5th-slowest in football (in a neutral context) right now.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.3 per game) this year.
The Eagles linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection For Zach Ertz Receptions Prop Bet
Zach Ertz is projected to have 3.7 Receptions in this weeks game.
Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 34.5 over: -120
- Receiving Yards 34.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
This week, Zach Ertz is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.6 targets.
Zach Ertz has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 19.2% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs.
Zach Ertz has accrued a monstrous 43.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among TEs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Washington Commanders grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 29.13 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Commanders as the 5th-slowest in football (in a neutral context) right now.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.3 per game) this year.
Zach Ertz grades out as one of the bottom TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.38 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 7th percentile.
This year, the stout Eagles defense has surrendered a puny 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-best in the league.
Projection For Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Zach Ertz is projected to have 33.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
