Zach Ertz Projections, Prop Bets & Odds

Zach Ertz projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints on Dec 15, 2024

Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receptions

Receptions Prop Bet Odds:

• Receptions 4.5 over: 126
• Receptions 4.5 under: -165

Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a massive 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Zach Ertz ranks as one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an excellent 4.1 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Commanders being a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 51.3% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The New Orleans Saints linebackers project as the 9th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection For Zach Ertz Receptions Prop Bet

Zach Ertz is projected to have 4.5 Receptions in this weeks game.

Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:

• Receiving Yards 33.5 over: -115
• Receiving Yards 33.5 under: -110

Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Washington Commanders this year (a massive 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

The model projects Zach Ertz to accumulate 6.4 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.

Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Commanders being a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 51.3% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Zach Ertz ranks as one of the bottom tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 2.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 6th percentile.

The New Orleans Saints linebackers project as the 9th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection For Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop Bet

Zach Ertz is projected to have 42.7 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.