Falcons vs Packers Prop Predictions: Best Thursday Night Football Player Props
Updated September 22, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change as the market moves.
Updated September 22, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change as the market moves.
The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers open Week 3 on Thursday Night Football, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. Green Bay enters at 1-1 after an overtime win over the Jets, while the 0-2 Falcons are looking to turn things around with QB Michael Penix Jr. back under center after missing the first two games.
The Packers are priced as clear favorites on Polymarket, trading around 72¢ to win compared to 29¢ for Atlanta. With that in mind, let’s break down our three favorite Falcons vs Packers player prop predictions for Thursday night.
Green Bay Has Been Extremely Difficult to Run On
The Packers have allowed just 174 rushing yards on 61 carries through two games, an average of 2.85 yards per carry. They held the Jets to 67 rushing yards last week, including just 29 yards on 16 carries for Breece Hall. This is a tough spot for Bijan to get to 80+ yards.
Bijan Has Been Slow Out of the Gate
Robinson is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry in the first half this season, and his first 10 carries of each game have produced only 60 yards on 20 attempts. That's important against a Packers defense that hasn't given up much on the ground, especially if Atlanta falls behind and has to throw more in the second half.
Atlanta Can Still Get Bijan Involved Through the Air
Bijan Robinson already has 11 catches for 99 yards through two games, including eight receptions for 90 yards in Week 1. If Green Bay makes things difficult on the ground, Atlanta can get Bijan involved through screens and checkdowns instead. We're fading his rushing production here, not his overall involvement.
Recommended Prediction:
Bijan U79.5 Rush Yards
Current Market Price:
53¢
Model Under Probability:
57.4%
Market-Implied Probability:
53%
Model Edge:
+4.4%
Buy Up To:
56¢
Model Trade Confidence:
71/100
This Is a Good Time to Buy Low on Pitts
Pitts has just one catch for 15 yards through two games, but both came without Michael Penix Jr. under center. He averaged 54.6 receiving yards per game last season and 41.7 yards on 5.9 targets per game with Penix, both above Thursday's 39.5-yard line. With Penix back, this looks like a good spot to buy low after an ugly start to the 2026 season.
Pitts Can Clear This Number on Limited Volume
Pitts caught 88 passes for 928 yards last season, averaging 10.5 yards per reception with 12 catches of 20+ yards. At that rate, four catches could be enough to get him over 39.5.
The Game Script Could Create More Opportunities
This also fits with why we like Bijan Robinson Under 79.5 rushing yards. If Green Bay makes things difficult on the ground or Atlanta falls behind at Lambeau, Penix should have to throw more. That should create more opportunities for Pitts, even if the Falcons don't have a great night offensively.
Recommended Prediction:
Pitts O39.5 Rec Yards
Current Market Price:
43¢
Model Over Probability:
48.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
43%
Model Edge:
+5.1%
Buy Up To:
46¢
Model Trade Confidence:
77/100
Kraft Has Been a Consistent Touchdown Threat
Tucker Kraft scored six touchdowns in just eight games last season after scoring seven in 2024. That's 13 receiving touchdowns over his last 25 games, so I'm not too worried that he hasn't found the end zone through the first two weeks.
Kraft Is One of Love's Favorite Red-Zone Targets
Kraft saw 12 red-zone targets in only eight games last season, catching nine for 104 yards and five touchdowns. He was even better inside the 10, catching all three of his targets with two scores. Green Bay clearly likes looking his way when it gets close to the goal line.
Atlanta Just Gave Up Two TDs to a Tight End
Darren Waller caught only three passes against Atlanta last week, but two went for touchdowns from seven and 12 yards out. Both scores came in exactly the area where Kraft did most of his damage last season.
Recommended Prediction:
Tucker Kraft Anytime TD
Current Market Price:
36¢
Model TD Probability:
39.4%
Market-Implied Probability:
36.0%
Model Edge:
+3.4%
Buy Up To:
38¢
Model Trade Confidence:
68/100
Polymarket currently has Packers -6.5 trading around 48¢, while Over 44.5 is priced around 51¢. That gives us a pretty clear picture heading into Thursday night, with Green Bay priced around a touchdown favorite.
Our model is a little lower on the scoring, projecting a 24-20 Packers win and giving Under 44.5 a 56.5% chance to hit. You can find the full model breakdown and matchup analysis in our Falcons vs Packers prediction.
That setup also fits what we're looking for in the player prop markets. If Green Bay gets ahead, Atlanta may have to throw more as the game goes on, which could favor Bijan Robinson Under 79.5 rushing yards and Kyle Pitts Over 39.5 receiving yards. Our model also has Green Bay scoring 24 points, so there should still be opportunities for Tucker Kraft to find the end zone even if the full game stays Under 44.5.
For more Thursday Night Football coverage, game previews and analysis throughout the 2026 season, check out our weekly NFL predictions.
