Eagles vs Bears Prop Predictions: Best Monday Night Football Player Props
Updated September 25, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change as the market moves.
Updated September 25, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change as the market moves.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears close out Week 3 on Monday Night Football, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Soldier Field. Philadelphia enters the matchup 2-0, while Chicago sits at 1-1 through the first two weeks.
The Eagles needed a late fourth-quarter comeback to stay unbeaten last week, scoring the game-winning touchdown with nine seconds left in a 24-20 win over the Titans. The Bears are coming off a much different performance, scoring just three points in a 9-3 loss to the Vikings.
Chicago also lost Caleb Williams to a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter of that game, and he's expected to miss Week 3. Below, we'll break down our top Eagles vs Bears player prop predictions for Monday Night Football, along with the matchup and numbers behind each play.
Hurts Has Thrown 2+ Touchdowns in Both Games So Far
Hurts has cleared this number in each of Philadelphia’s first two games, throwing three touchdowns in Week 1 and two more against Tennessee. That may be a trend we see more often this season. The Eagles’ offensive line and rushing attack aren't as dominant as they once were, and defenses are more willing to make Hurts beat them through the air.
Chicago Has Already Been Vulnerable Through the Air
Chicago gave up 361 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air in Week 1. The Bears were much better last week, but that came in a rainy game against a Carson Wentz-led Minnesota offense and the Eagles should present a much tougher test for a Chicago secondary that was already exposed once this season.
Barkley May Not Be 100%
Saquon Barkley suffered a stinger against Tennessee and has been limited in practice this week. He’s expected to play, but the Eagles may be a little more careful with his workload if he isn't 100%. That could create a few more opportunities for Hurts to finish drives through the air rather than leaning as heavily on Barkley near the goal line.
Recommended Prediction:
Hurts 2+ Passing TDs
Current Market Price:
41¢
Model Over Probability:
45.2%
Market-Implied Probability:
41%
Model Edge:
+4.2%
Buy Up To:
44¢
Model Trade Confidence:
74/100
Swift Is Getting the Goal-Line Work
Swift has eight red-zone carries through two games, including all four of Chicago’s running back carries inside the 5-yard line. He has already scored twice on those opportunities, while Kyle Monangai has yet to record a carry inside the 5. If Chicago gets close Monday night, Swift should get the first chance to finish the drive.
Williams Being Out Could Mean More Swift
With Caleb Williams expected to miss Monday night, Chicago may lean more heavily on the run game and short passing game with Case Keenum at quarterback. That should keep Swift heavily involved, and his ability to contribute both as a runner and receiver gives him multiple ways to find the end zone.
Philadelphia Has Allowed a Rushing TD in Both Games
The Eagles have allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their first two games. Chicago doesn't need a huge offensive night for this prop to hit, either. If the Bears can put together a couple of red-zone trips, Swift's goal-line role gives him a good chance to get one of those scoring opportunities.
Recommended Prediction:
Swift Anytime TD
Current Market Price:
44¢
Model TD Probability:
47.9%
Market-Implied Probability:
44%
Model Edge:
+3.9%
Buy Up To:
47¢
Model Trade Confidence:
68/100
Smith Is the Clear No. 1 Without A.J. Brown
With Brown gone, Smith is now the unquestioned No. 1 receiver in Philadelphia, and the early usage backs that up. He has 19 targets through two games for a 33.9% target share, nearly double any other Eagles player. After years of sharing targets with Brown, Smith finally has the volume of a true WR1.
The Volume Is Already Turning Into Production
Smith has 13 catches for 170 yards through two games, putting him at 85 receiving yards per game and 13.1 yards per catch. He really took over last week against Tennessee, catching 10 of 13 targets for 117 yards. With his target volume and ability to pick up yards downfield, he doesn't need another 10-catch game to clear 69.5.
Carolina’s Receivers Had Success Against Chicago
Chicago's secondary was exposed in Week 1, with Jalen Coker catching eight passes for 138 yards and Tetairoa McMillan adding 75 yards. That's 213 yards between Carolina's top two receivers, which is encouraging for Smith heading into Monday night.
Recommended Prediction:
D Smith O69.5 Rec Yards
Current Market Price:
55¢
Model Over Probability:
59.3%
Market-Implied Probability:
55%
Model Edge:
+4.3%
Buy Up To:
58¢
Model Trade Confidence:
75/100
Philadelphia is currently priced as a 68¢ favorite at Polymarket, with Chicago at 33¢. A lot of that likely comes from Caleb Williams being expected to miss the game and the Bears scoring just three points last week, but there’s at least a case that the market has moved a little too far against Chicago.
The total is also sitting at just 41.5 points, with the Over priced at 50¢.
The biggest concern for our props would be Philadelphia jumping out to an early lead and leaning on the run the rest of the way. However, our full Eagles vs Bears prediction has Philadelphia winning just 24-21, with the ATS Quantitative Model backing Chicago +4.5.
If Case Keenum and the Bears can keep this competitive, Hurts and Smith should remain involved throughout the game rather than Philadelphia simply running out the clock.
That game script could also work for Swift. Even if Chicago falls behind, he's a skilled receiving back who can stay involved through short passes out of the backfield, so he doesn't necessarily need the Bears to play from ahead to get opportunities.
For more on every game this week, check out our NFL picks and predictions for more matchup analysis, game previews and model projections.
