Eagles vs Jaguars Prediction, Preview & London Game Analysis - 10/11/2026
Updated October 10, 2026
Updated October 10, 2026
The Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London on Sunday, October 11, with kickoff scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET. Jacksonville enters Week 5 at 3-1, leading the AFC South after a 22-17 victory over Cincinnati. Philadelphia sits at 2-2 following consecutive losses to Chicago and Los Angeles. The Eagles are dealing with significant injuries, particularly on offense, while Jacksonville has established one of the NFL's strongest defensive units. Those circumstances make the game's total market an interesting prediction market heading into Sunday.
Projection Insights
Polymarket currently prices Under 42.5 at 53¢, representing an implied probability of approximately 53%, while Over 42.5 trades at 48¢. Jacksonville is also favored in the outright market at 77¢, compared with Philadelphia at 24¢. Our estimated 57% probability for the Under creates a 4.0% edge over the current price. That projection accounts for Philadelphia's weakened offensive personnel, Jacksonville's defensive production, and the possibility of a slower game built around rushing and field position.
Eagles Injury Situation a Factor
The value becomes clearer when examining Philadelphia's situation. The Eagles average just 18.8 points and 269.8 offensive yards per game, ranking 26th and 29th, respectively. Those figures were recorded before several additional personnel losses. Jacksonville has allowed the NFL's second-fewest points through four games and ranks second against the run. Although the Jaguars average 26 points themselves, Philadelphia's declining offensive production could keep the combined score below expectations.
Recommended Position:
Under 42.5
Current Price:
53¢
Model Probability:
57%
Market Probability:
53%
Model Edge:
4%
Entry Threshold:
55¢
Model Confidence:
73/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Philadelphia's offensive injuries and Jacksonville's defensive efficiency point to fewer scoring opportunities than the current total suggests.”
Jacksonville has won three of its opening four games under Liam Coen, establishing a 1-game advantage over Indianapolis in the AFC South championship race. Sunday's contest offers an opportunity to strengthen that position before another London matchup against Houston.
The Jaguars defeated Cincinnati 22-17 in Week 4, demonstrating their ability to win without relying entirely on explosive offensive plays. Philadelphia, meanwhile, lost 27-7 against Chicago before falling 24-20 to the Rams. The Eagles desperately need a response, but their recent offensive performances offer little reassurance.
Philadelphia will be without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Hollywood Brown. Running back Tank Bigsby is also on injured reserve, leaving Will Shipley, Dameon Pierce, and Carson Steele to handle the backfield responsibilities.
The offensive line is another concern. Lane Johnson announced his retirement, Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore, and center Drew Kendall has been ruled out. These changes could make establishing a reliable rushing attack extremely difficult.
Jalen Hurts has thrown for 713 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions this season. His mobility remains valuable, but Jacksonville's defensive front could force hurried throws and limit Philadelphia's passing options. Dallas Goedert's return provides Hurts with an important target, particularly on shorter routes.
The Jaguars have recorded 10 sacks and 6 interceptions through four games, with a league-leading +6 turnover differential. Their ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks is particularly concerning for an Eagles team adjusting to personnel changes across its offensive line.
Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker provide Jacksonville with dangerous edge pressure, while linebacker Foyesade Oluokun contributes significantly against the run.
Jacksonville has surrendered only 297 rushing yards this season, an average of 74.3 per game. If Philadelphia cannot establish its ground game , Hurts could face difficult third-down situations against a defense that has consistently created takeaways.
Trevor Lawrence enters Sunday's Eagles vs Jaguars matchup with 843 passing yards, 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Jacksonville's receiving options include Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange, who recorded 95 receiving yards against Cincinnati.
However, Philadelphia's defensive interior remains capable of disrupting Jacksonville's offensive rhythm. The Eagles must generate pressure without allowing Lawrence to exploit openings behind their linebackers.
Jacksonville could instead lean on Bhayshul Tuten, who has produced 277 rushing yards at 4.6 yards per carry. Sustained rushing success would help the Jaguars control possession while reducing the number of opportunities for both offenses.
Jacksonville has the healthier roster, stronger defensive statistics, and a clearer offensive identity entering Sunday's contest. Philadelphia still has enough talent to remain competitive, especially if Hurts extends plays and avoids turnovers.
Nevertheless, the Eagles' offensive limitations create a reasonable case for a lower-scoring contest. Jacksonville should have success controlling field position, while Philadelphia may struggle to sustain lengthy scoring drives.
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