Cowboys vs Packers Prop Predictions: Best SNF Player Props for Week 6
Updated October 16, 2026
Cowboys vs Packers Win Probability & Market Pricing
Updated October 16, 2026
The Dallas Cowboys travel to Green Bay to face the Packers on Sunday Night Football in Week 6. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field, with the game airing on NBC and Peacock.
Dallas (2-3) is coming off a disappointing 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay, while Green Bay (3-2) bounced back with a dominant 31-7 win over Chicago last week.
Rather than backing either side or the total in this matchup, I think the best value is on a player prop: Dak Prescott 2+ passing touchdowns. Below, I'll break down the stats, trends, and matchup factors that make this my favorite pick for Sunday night.
Our Model Sees Value
Dak Prescott 2+ passing touchdowns is currently trading at 60¢ on Polymarket, while the ATS Quantitative Model gives it a 65.1% chance of hitting. That creates a 5.1% edge at the current price, with our model recommending buying up to 64¢.
High Passing Volume and Potential TD Regression
Prescott has thrown 40, 45, and 42 passes over his last three games, averaging 309 passing yards during that stretch. However, he's managed just three passing touchdowns on 927 yards, a 2.4% touchdown rate compared to 5.9% over his first two games. With Dallas potentially playing from behind, I like his chances of turning that passing volume into more touchdowns.
Green Bay's Injuries at Cornerback
Green Bay could be shorthanded in the secondary, with Benjamin St-Juste missing Thursday's practice due to a hamstring injury and Keisean Nixon limited with a groin issue. Meanwhile, CeeDee Lamb practiced fully despite a thigh injury, so Prescott should have both Lamb and George Pickens available against a potentially weakened Packers secondary.
Recommended Position:
Dak Prescott 2+ Pass TDs
Current Price:
60¢
Model Probability:
65.1%
Market Probability:
60.0%
Model Edge:
+5.1%
Buy Up To:
64¢
Model Confidence:
75/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I know this one is a bit pricey at 60¢, but I think we're getting some value after Prescott has failed to throw multiple touchdowns in three straight games. He hit this number in 10 of 17 games last season (58.8%), and with a Cowboys defense that you can usually count on giving up points, Dallas should have to keep throwing the ball. I like Prescott's chances of getting back to two passing touchdowns on Sunday night.”
Prescott has thrown nine touchdown passes through five games this season, although six came in his first two outings.
He's thrown just one in each of his last three games despite attempting at least 40 passes in all three. Still, his 51.0% passing success rate suggests he's moving the ball effectively, while Dallas has scored touchdowns on 15 of its 18 red-zone trips (83.3%) this season.
Last season, Prescott threw 30 touchdowns in 17 games, reaching at least two in 10 of them (58.8%) and three or more five times.
That also makes Prescott 3+ passing touchdowns at 30¢ on Polymarket worth considering. He hit that number in 29.4% of his games last season, so I still prefer the 2+ market, but a smaller position at the current price could make sense in this matchup.
Prescott has plenty of weapons to work with, starting with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Lamb leads Dallas with 39 receptions for 507 yards and four touchdowns, while Pickens has added 27 catches for 355 yards and one score. The two have combined for 92 targets through five games.
Tight end Jake Ferguson has also been a factor near the end zone, catching three touchdowns on 15 receptions. With Lamb practicing fully on Wednesday and Thursday after suffering a bruised thigh against Tampa Bay last week, Prescott should have all three of his top receiving options available against Green Bay.
Dallas has been one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL this season, allowing 395.4 yards per game (31st) and 27.2 points per game (26th). The Cowboys also rank last in defensive EPA per play and have yet to record an interception through five games.
Those struggles could work in our favor with this Prescott prop, especially if Green Bay gets off to a fast start and forces Dallas to throw more often. The Cowboys have already allowed at least 28 points in three of their five games, so another high-scoring matchup wouldn't be surprising.
The full-game total is also set at 53.5 points, with the Over trading at 49¢ on Polymarket. That's a relatively high number and another reason to expect plenty of scoring opportunities for Prescott on Sunday night.
Green Bay has been solid against the pass, ranking fifth in the NFL with 181 passing yards allowed per game. The Packers have surrendered just six passing touchdowns, with only one quarterback reaching two or more.
However, they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of quarterbacks. Their opponents have included Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, Michael Penix Jr., Jalon Daniels, and Chicago's Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent. Prescott should present a bigger challenge, especially with Dallas' receiving weapons.
Green Bay also has injury concerns at cornerback, with Benjamin St-Juste missing Thursday's practice due to a hamstring injury and Keisean Nixon limited by a groin issue. That could make it a lot harder for the Packers to contain Dallas' passing attack.
If you're also looking for a side in this matchup, the ATS Quantitative Model projects a 29-24 Green Bay win and favors the Packers. Check out our full Cowboys vs. Packers prediction for the model's analysis and more matchup insights.
You can also explore our latest NFL predictions for more picks throughout Week 6 and beyond.
