Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction: Back Forest +1.5 at the City Ground
Updated October 16, 2026
Updated October 16, 2026
Two goals. That’s how many have been scored at the City Ground across Nottingham Forest’s three home league games, and Forest haven’t scored either of them.
Oliver Glasner’s side sit 15th with five points, but their underlying numbers say they should have more than double that. Forest’s 11.42 expected points rank third in the league, behind only Arsenal and Manchester City.
Arsenal arrive as 60¢ favorites, although they also have a trip to Bayern Munich three days later to consider. I expect them to win, but I don't expect it to be as easy as some might think.
Our model sees a 5% edge on Forest +1.5 at 67¢.
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
| Sportsbook | ARS | NFO |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 34.0¢ | +1.5 68.1¢ |
| Polymarket | -1.5 34.0¢ | +1.5 67.0¢ |
| Sportsbook | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 2.5 50.0¢ | 2.5 51.0¢ |
| Polymarket | 2.5 50.0¢ | 2.5 51.0¢ |
| FanDuel | 0.5 -3000 | 4.5 -950 |
| BetRivers | 2.5 -109 | 2.5 -117 |
| BetMGM | 2.5 -118 | 2.5 -118 |
| Sportsbook | ARS | NFO | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 60.0¢ | 16.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| Polymarket | 60.0¢ | 16.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| FanDuel | -175 | +480 | +270 |
| Fanatics | -160 | +475 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -167 | +480 | +290 |
| DraftKings | -160 | +475 | +285 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +450 | +290 |
ATS Expert Verdict
“Forest have created 12.24 xG and scored five. That’s the biggest gap in the league, and it’s left them ten points behind a side they’ve matched on expected points. Arsenal still have the best defense in the division, but they haven’t been winning big. Forest +1.5 pays on a one-goal Arsenal win, which is the most likely result.”
Forest are playing far better than their record suggests
Forest’s 12.24 xG is the third-highest in the Premier League, behind only Brighton and Manchester City. They’ve turned it into five goals, 7.24 fewer than expected and the largest shortfall in the division. At the other end, Forest’s 7.26 xG conceded is second only to Arsenal’s. On expected points, they’d have 11.42 instead of five. Provided Liam Delap can finally start hitting the target, regression is due for Forest.
Arsenal’s results have run ahead of their numbers
Arsenal are the best side in the league by underlying numbers. They have the lowest xG conceded (6.65), the most deep completions (69) and the highest expected points (11.99). But their 15 points are three more than that 11.99 suggests, and their attack sits fifth for xG. While rotation is unlikely for such an important fixture, their midweek trip to Munich could factor into Arteta's team selection.
Recommended Position:
Forest +1.5
Current Price:
67¢
Model Probability:
72%
Market Probability:
67%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
69¢
Model Confidence:
60/100
Metric (2026-27 Premier League) | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
Matches Played (W-D-L) | 6 (1-2-3) | 6 (5-0-1) |
Points / Expected Points (xPTS) | 5 / 11.42 (3rd) | 15 / 11.99 (1st) |
Goals Scored / Conceded | 5 / 8 | 10 / 5 |
Goals Scored / Conceded (Per 90) | 0.83 / 1.33 | 1.67 / 0.83 |
Combined Goals Per Match | 2.17 | 2.50 |
Expected Goals (xG) | 12.24 (3rd) | 11.73 (5th) |
Expected Goals Allowed (xGA) | 7.26 (2nd) | 6.65 (1st) |
xG / xGA Per 90 | 2.04 / 1.21 | 1.96 / 1.11 |
Goals vs xG | -7.24 | -1.73 |
PPDA | 10.70 (12th) | 10.57 (11th) |
Deep Completions | 45 (6th) | 69 (1st) |
On xG, xGA and expected points, these teams are close. The real gap is in finishing. Forest have scored at less than half their expected rate, and no team in the league is further behind its xG. That normally evens out, but I’m not relying on it Sunday. The model leans mostly on market prices, and I’d rather back Forest to keep it close than to score twice.
Arsenal’s edge shows up in territory. Their 69 deep completions lead the league, so they reach dangerous areas more often than anyone. Neither side presses hard, with PPDAs of 10.57 and 10.70, both mid-table. That points to a patient game, with Arsenal holding the ball and Forest waiting to break.
Oliver Glasner has brought his Palace 3-4-2-1 to the City Ground. Daniel Munoz and Neco Williams work the flanks, while Ndoye and Gibbs-White play off Delap. Forest don’t press much, but they break quickly through the wing-backs, and that’s how they’ve built the league’s third-highest xG.
The finishing has been the problem, not the chances, with Liam Delap particlarly guilt of some glaring misses. The England forward currently has 1 goal from 2.16xG.
The back three is also a worry for the home side. Nikola Milenkovic is still struggling with a bone bruise, which pushes Ola Aina into the middle alongside Ousmane Diomande and Murillo.
Glasner could choose to bring Ibrahim Sangare in for Xaver Schlager to tighten the midfield against Arsenal’s possession, rather than bring Ola Aina into midfield where he struggled at Selhurst Park.
Arteta’s 4-2-3-1 should have Saka and Martin Odegaard back after both came off the bench to change the Lille game.
Declan Rice and Guimaraes form the double pivot, with Martin Zubimendi only fit enough for the bench. Kai Havertz is expected to lead the line ahead of Viktor Gyokeres.
Arsenal will dominate the ball, and Forest are happy to let them. Their danger comes from Saka running at Williams and from Gabriel at set pieces.
Saka, like Delap, is underperforming in front of goal, with 3 goals from 4.59 xG, the third-highest tally in the league.
Without Saliba, the back line is less comfortable against fast breaks, and Forest’s wing-backs will test that early and often.
Out: Igor Jesus (calf), Nicolo Savona (knee)
Doubt: Nikola Milenkovic (bone bruise)
Nottingham Forest predicted XI (3-4-2-1): Sels; Aina, Diomande, Murillo; Munoz, McAtee, Schlager, Williams; Ndoye, Gibbs-White; Delap
Out: William Saliba (back), Piero Hincapie (ankle), Christos Tzolis (hamstring)
Doubt: Martin Zubimendi (ankle)
Arsenal predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Guimaraes; Saka, Odegaard, Madueke; Havertz
