Updated September 18, 2026
Cincinnati enters Sunday’s game at Houston at 1-0 after beating Tampa Bay 33-27, while the Texans are 0-1 following a 36-31 loss to Buffalo. The early results point to a game with enough offensive opportunities to make the touchdown scorer markets interesting. Houston allowed Josh Allen to throw for 334 yards and finished Week 1 with a 130.5 opponent passer rating. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has already made it clear that the quiet opener for some of their top weapons cannot become the norm.
A Competitive Offensive Game Expected
Polymarket has a 1-or-more rushing or receiving touchdown market for Ja'Marr Chase, with the current pricing around 44¢. The overall board also implies the expectation of a competitive scoring matchup. Houston is priced as the favorite, while Polymarket’s main total sits at 45.5 points, with the Over at 50¢ and the Under at 51¢. The game market has attracted more than $292,000 in volume.
Our Projections Expect a Chase TD
My 48.8% projection is short of treating Chase as a true coin flip to score, but it is still higher than the market’s 44% implied probability. His 2025 season provides a useful baseline. Chase finished with 125 receptions for 1,412 yards and 8 touchdowns despite Cincinnati spending a substantial portion of the year without Joe Burrow. His Week 1 line of 2 catches for 12 yards on 4 targets is a sharp departure from his established role, rather than a workload I expect Cincinnati to repeat.
Recommended Prediction:
Ja'Marr Chase Anytime TD Scorer
Current Market Price:
44¢
Model Win Probability:
48.8%
Market-Implied Probability:
44%
Model Edge:
4.8%
Buy Up To:
46¢
Model Trade Confidence:
78/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Chase’s Week 1 usage was unusually low, Cincinnati has publicly identified getting him the ball as a priority, and Houston just allowed 334 passing yards in its opener. We should see plenty of targets for Chase and a touchdown.”
The clearest argument for Chase is Cincinnati’s own reaction to Week 1. Burrow said this week that the Bengals cannot finish a game with Chase touching the ball only 2 times and called increased involvement an emphasis for Houston. That is significant when looking at touchdown markets because more manufactured touches and targets create additional paths to the end zone even if Houston assigns top corner Derek Stingley Jr. to Chase for significant stretches of this Bengals vs Texans matchup.
Buffalo attacked Houston through the air with immediate success. Allen completed 20 of 29 passes for 334 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Houston surrendered a 130.5 passer rating. The Bills also produced 2 receivers with at least 100 yards. One game is far too small a sample to declare Houston’s pass defense a season-long weakness, but it showed that explosive passing production is possible against this group.
That creates an attractive rebound spot for Cincinnati’s top receiver. Burrow still completed 25 of 35 passes for 254 yards in the opener despite Chase contributing only 12 of those yards. Mike Gesicki instead led Cincinnati with 78 receiving yards and a touchdown, showing that Burrow was willing to work away from Chase when Tampa Bay dictated it. Houston now has to account for those alternatives while also dealing with Cincinnati’s stated plan to feature Chase more heavily.
Stingley is the biggest concern for a Chase touchdown prediction. Burrow praised his ball skills this week, and Houston can use him to make Chase work for clean releases and contested opportunities. Houston’s pass rush also has Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, which creates another problem. If Burrow has to get the ball out quickly, Cincinnati may have fewer chances to let Chase’s deeper routes develop.
Burrow’s back tightness adds another variable. He was limited Wednesday, though he said the issue would not prevent him from playing Sunday. Chase himself was absent from Cincinnati’s initial Week 2 injury list, which is encouraging after the knee issue he dealt with before the opener.
There is a difference between expecting Chase to have a strong receiving game and expecting a touchdown, but 44¢ leaves enough room for a position amid that uncertainty. His established scoring history, the Bengals’ explicit plan to increase his involvement, and Houston’s Week 1 problems against the pass push my touchdown probability for Chase to 48.8%. At 44¢, that produces a 4.8% edge and makes Chase the touchdown scorer prediction I prefer for Sunday’s matchup.
