Oklahoma City visits San Antonio on Wednesday night after the Spurs won three of their four meetings so far in 2025-26, with the most recent decision going to the Thunder on January 13. This game features two of the brightest young stars in the league, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama leading their respective teams into this contest. Which team will come out on top? Continue reading to get my Thunder vs Spurs prediction in the NBA.
Our Thunder vs Spurs Pick
Pick: Spurs ML ATS PRO
Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
- Date & Time: Wednesday, February 4, 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- Superstar form. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters averaging just under 32.0 points per game with over 6 assists per game on elite efficiency. Victor Wembanyama sits at 24.1 points and 11.0 rebounds per game and is coming off another impact performance while addressing recent calf soreness as non-issue.
- Team profiles. Thunder metrics are title caliber with an elite offensive rating and defensive rating, plus a top-3 true shooting percentage. The Spurs have climbed the Western Conference with balanced offense and a defense that has leaned on length, verticality, and improved backcourt rotations.
- Scheduling and rest. San Antonio just gutted out a win against Orlando after difficult travel, then returned home. Oklahoma City is on the second game of a back-to-back after they beat the Magic last night.
- Injury Report: The Thunder are still missing one of their most important players in Jalen Williams. Ajay Mitchell is also questionable to compete in this game for OKC. The Spurs are without Jeremy Sochan due to injury, while Stephon Castle is questionable with a thigh injury.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Spurs are 3-1 against the Thunder so far this season. They beat OKC by 20 in their first meeting of the season in San Antonio.
- The Thunder are 25-26 against the spread so far this season.
- The Spurs are 25-23-2 against the spread this year.
- The under is 26-25 for the Thunder this season.
- The Spurs have gone under the total more than any team in the NBA this season, doing so in 32 of their first 50 games.
Thunder vs Spurs Model Projection
Score Projection: Thunder 112 – Spurs 115
Win Probability: Thunder 44%, Spurs 56%
Final Thoughts
This is the last chance for these two Western Conference contenders to make a statement against each other this season. The lack of Jalen Williams has been devastating for the Thunder and I expect it to stay that way in this contest. I'll go with the Spurs to get a win as a slight underdog on their home floor to show once again that they do not fear the defending champs.
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