Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Prop Bets - 12/23/2025
Updated December 23, 2025
Updated December 23, 2025
The Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks will face off on Tuesday night in a Western Conference matchup in the NBA. Denver enters this contest as clear favorites and playing some excellent basketball of late. The Mavs are struggling and will try to go into Christmas Day after a win. Here, I break down this matchup in the NBA and give you my Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction for Tuesday's game.
Pick: | Nuggets -6.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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The Nuggets arrive with a 21-7 record and ownership of one of the league’s most efficient offenses, posting 125.1 points per game while ranking near the top of the league in assists and field goal percentage. Nikola Jokić remains elite, averaging a triple‑double and recently making NBA history by becoming the center with the most career assists. Jamal Murray has been an impactful second scoring option, helping Denver continue its Western Conference success as it seeks to keep momentum rolling through December.
Dallas stands at 11-18 and enters this game coming off a couple of losses in recent outings. The Mavericks’ youth movement, led by Cooper Flagg, has generated excitement with historic scoring performances and breakout playmaking. But a lack of overall consistency has been problematic. Dallas also has dealt with injuries across its rotation, forcing lesser‑used players into larger roles.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Nikola Jokić | Triple‑Double |
Jamal Murray | Over 24.5 Points |
Cooper Flagg | Over 20.5 Points |
Score Projection: Denver Nuggets 121 – Dallas Mavericks 107
Win Probability: Denver Nuggets 68%, Dallas Mavericks 32%
I'm going to lay the points with the Nuggets in this matchup from Dallas. While this is the second night of a back-to-back for the Nuggets, they should be able to handle things behind the inevitable Nikola Jokic. With the Mavericks lacking frontcourt depth, we should see the Nuggets get a second straight win and to do so by several possessions.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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