The Dallas Mavericks visit the Memphis Grizzlies on March 12 in a meeting between two Western Conference teams near the bottom of the standings. Dallas enters the night with a 21-44 record and sits 12th in the conference, while Memphis is 23-41 and just ahead of Dallas in 11th place. Both clubs have struggled during recent weeks, though Dallas has endured one of the roughest stretches in the league with a long losing run that has dropped them further out of postseason contention. Here, I pick which struggling team I think will get a win as I make my Mavericks vs Grizzlies prediction in the betting markets.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies
- Date & Time: Thursday, March 12, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
The biggest storyline entering this game is both teams attempting to stop severe slides. The Mavericks have lost eight consecutive games and have dropped 17 of their last 19 contests. Offensive inconsistency and defensive breakdowns have plagued the team during that stretch, leading to several lopsided defeats. Even so, Dallas still carries some scoring upside with multiple veterans capable of producing big nights.
Memphis enters this game on a losing run as well, losing five straight games, though the Grizzlies have been far more competitive. Their recent losses have come against stronger opponents, and they have continued to score effectively while covering spreads in several recent games. Memphis also tends to play better at home and historically has performed well in this head-to-head pairing.
Key Players
Memphis Grizzlies
- Cedric Coward is listed as questionable for this game for the Grizzlies. If he does play, he adds some explosiveness on offense that Memphis could desperately use with so many quality players out of action.
- Cam Spencer leads the team in playmaking with roughly 5.6 assists per game and helps keep the offense organized.
Dallas Mavericks
- Cooper Flagg leads the Mavericks with 20.1 points per game. The rookie has quickly become the primary offensive option and a versatile playmaker.
- Daniel Gafford provides interior scoring and rebounding. His efficiency near the rim and shot blocking make him a valuable presence in the paint.
- Klay Thompson remains a perimeter threat and veteran leader. When healthy, his three-point shooting stretches defenses and creates space for teammates.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Dallas Mavericks | Memphis Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 113.0 | 115.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 117.8 | 118.3 |
| Team Field Goal % | 47% | 46% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 44.7 | 43.8 |
| Assists Per Game | 24.9 | 28.7 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Memphis is 3-0 against Dallas going into their final matchup of the regular season here.
- Dallas is 28-37 against the spread on the season.
- Memphis enters this contest with a 30-34 record against the spread on the year.
Mavericks vs Grizzlies Pick & Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mavericks 112 – Grizzlies 116
- Pick: Memphis Grizzlies +4.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
- Win Probability: Mavericks 44%, Grizzlies 56%
This game features two struggling teams, though Memphis holds several subtle advantages that stand out from a betting angle. The Grizzlies have performed better against the spread recently, and their offensive balance allows multiple players to contribute scoring on a nightly basis. Dallas enters the contest in poor form with a long losing streak and several injury concerns, which raises questions about their ability to control the game on the road. I’ll take the points with the Grizzlies here in a game where neither team has given us much of a reason to trust them.
More NBA Picks
