Buy or Sell? 6 NBA Teams That Are Overrated or Underrated

BUY: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves are off to a 5-3 start, but their underlying numbers suggest they're better than their record. Minnesota ranks fourth in the NBA in net rating (+11.2), with the third-best defensive rating (105.5) and ninth-best offensive rating (116.7). Their expected record based on point differential is actually 6-2.

Of course, the big concern is Anthony Edwards' knee injury. He was averaging 33.3 points per game before undergoing surgery on October 29, and he's expected to miss an extended stretch. That's a significant blow, but it could also be creating a buying opportunity.

Minnesota has already beaten the Clippers by 26 points and the Bucks by 12 without Edwards. With Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels anchoring the defense and LaMelo Ball helping carry the offense, there's enough talent here to stay competitive until Edwards returns.

My recommendation: Timberwolves to make the Western Conference Finals at 23¢ on Kalshi. That's an implied probability of just 23% for a team that's reached the conference finals in two of the last three seasons (2024 and 2025). Edwards' health is obviously the biggest question, but assuming he's back for the playoffs, I think Minnesota has a better shot at another deep run than that price suggests.

SELL: Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers are off to a 7-1 start and sitting atop the Eastern Conference. With LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, and Joel Embiid, it's easy to see why fans are getting excited. But there are some warning signs hiding behind that impressive record.

Despite winning seven of eight games, Philadelphia ranks just 10th in net rating (+5.8) and 19th in offensive rating (111.2). Its expected record based on point differential is only 5-3, suggesting the Sixers haven't been quite as dominant as their record indicates.

They've also relied heavily on late-game heroics. Before Monday's win over Chicago, all six victories had been close in the final five minutes, with Philadelphia scoring an incredible 131 points per 100 possessions in clutch situations. That's impressive, but probably not sustainable over an 82-game season.

My recommendation: 76ers to qualify for the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament at 18¢ on Kalshi. That's an implied probability of just 18%. Philadelphia has participated in the play-in twice (2024 and 2026), while LeBron has played in three (2021, 2023, and 2024). I also like the idea of fading Philly on a game-by-game basis over the coming weeks. I'm not expecting a complete collapse, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Sixers eventually found themselves fighting for a playoff spot rather than the No. 1 seed.

BUY: Toronto Raptors

The next team I'm looking to buy is the Toronto Raptors. They might be just 4-3, but there's a lot to like when you look beyond their record. Toronto ranks seventh in the NBA in net rating (+7.6), with the eighth-best offensive rating (116.7) and seventh-best defensive rating (109.2). Their expected record based on point differential is actually 5-2.

There's also reason to believe this team could get better as the season goes on. Kawhi Leonard is still getting comfortable in Toronto, and having another reliable shot creator could make a big difference come playoff time. Last season, the Raptors shot just 43.3% in effective field goal percentage over the final six seconds of the shot clock. Leonard, meanwhile, has shot 53.0% in those situations over the past three seasons.

And remember, Toronto won 46 games last season without Leonard. With Scottie Barnes continuing to improve and an already strong defense, I think this team has a lot more potential than its early record suggests.

My recommendation: Raptors to reach the Eastern Conference Finals at 24¢ on Polymarket. That's an implied probability of just 24%, and I think Toronto has a better shot than that if Kawhi stays healthy.

SELL: Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis might be the toughest sell on this list. The Grizzlies started 6-0 before losing to New Orleans on Monday, and they're currently second in the NBA in net rating (+12.7). So unlike Philadelphia, their early success is actually backed up by some impressive numbers.

But I'm still skeptical they'll keep this up, for a few reasons:

• Three-point shooting: Memphis has shot a league-best 42.1% from deep through its first seven games, while opponents have made just 30.1% of their attempts. That's a pretty favorable combination, and I'd expect those percentages to move closer together over time.
• Strength of schedule: Four of their six wins came against Utah and Sacramento, including two against each team. They've looked great, but we haven't seen them face many serious contenders yet.
• Experience: The Grizzlies are building around rookie Cameron Boozer and a relatively young roster after trading Ja Morant. There's plenty of talent here, but maintaining this level of play over 82 games is another challenge entirely.

My recommendation: Grizzlies to miss the playoffs at 51¢ on Polymarket. That's an implied probability of 51%, and I think there's a good chance Memphis won't be able to sustain this start. Remember, the Grizzlies finished just 25-57 last season, and while they've clearly improved, it's a long season in a competitive Western Conference. I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually came back down to earth and missed the postseason again.

BUY: New Orleans Pelicans

How much can change in a week? Just ask the New Orleans Pelicans.

After opening the season 0-4, New Orleans has won three straight, including a 135-134 victory over the previously undefeated Grizzlies on Monday. But here's what caught my attention: the Pelicans might be better than their 3-4 record suggests.

Three of their four losses came by a combined 10 points, and their expected record based on point differential is actually 4-3. They're also third in the NBA in scoring (121.9 points per game) and play at the league's third-fastest pace.

Defensively, Herb Jones has made a huge difference. Through the first six games, New Orleans allowed just 89 points per 100 possessions with Jones on the floor, compared to more than 125 when he was on the bench. Meanwhile, Zion Williamson was shooting a career-best 66.2% in the paint through six games.

My recommendation: Pelicans to qualify for the Western Conference Play-In Tournament at 30¢ on Kalshi. That's an implied probability of just 30%. New Orleans doesn't need to become a championship contender for this prediction to work. It just needs to finish between seventh and 10th in the West, and I think this team has a better shot than that price suggests.

SELL: Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics are off to a 5-2 start, and with Jayson Tatum and Paul George leading the way, another 55-win season might seem realistic. But I'm not completely sold on this team just yet.

For starters, Boston ranks just ninth in net rating (+6.0) despite having the third-best record in the East. Its defense has also slipped to 12th in defensive rating (111.1), a noticeable drop from previous seasons.

A few other numbers caught my attention:

• Rebounding: Opponents are grabbing 35.0% of available offensive rebounds, putting Boston 25th in defensive rebounding percentage.
• Shooting: Tatum is averaging 27.0 points but shooting just 22.9% from three. Boston also ranks 14th in effective field goal percentage.
• Strength of schedule: According to Power Rankings Guru, Boston has faced just the 17th-toughest schedule so far, with its opponents combining for a .411 winning percentage. That's a relatively manageable schedule, especially for a team that's already showing some weaknesses defensively.

And remember, the Celtics traded Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia. That's a lot of scoring and defensive production to replace, even with George coming in.

My recommendation: No on Celtics 55+ wins at 59¢ on Kalshi. Boston would need to go 50-25 over its remaining 75 games to reach 55 wins, and I think that's asking a lot from this roster. If you want to fade them a little harder, No on 50+ wins at 33¢ is another option worth considering.