Updated October 9, 2025
The NASCAR Cup Series will be in Las Vegas for the South Point 400 on Sunday afternoon. This is the first race in the Round of 8 in this year's playoffs. And with just a handful of points separating the eight drivers left in championship contention, this race is a big one for the last eight drivers standing. Before the green flag is waved in Vegas, continue reading to get my South Point 400 prediction.
With just three races left before the Championship 4, every point matters. A win in Las Vegas would virtually guarantee a ticket to the title race without having to deal with the pressure of the next two weeks. But none of the eight remaining drivers are safe just yet and there is virtually no margin for error between them.
Las Vegas is an interesting venue at this time of year. The weather can be warm during the day and cool down significantly at night. Changes in the weather as the race wears on could change the way drivers attack the track and how the cars stand up to the 400 miles of action.
Joey Logano has won two of the last three runnings of this race. He enters this week in eighth place in the playoff standings and will try to make his move into the top four with a third win in four years in Vegas. But Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are expected to make life tough on Logano and the rest of the field here.
When placing a bet on NASCAR, you're banking on more than speed. You're evaluating momentum, track history, and playoff dynamics. Here is my reasoning when betting on this race.
Thus, I pick Kyle Larson to win the 2025 South Point 400. He has the perfect combination of track history, current momentum, and playoff motivation to perform well. While Joey Logano should be a major threat to Larson in this race, I'll take the favorite to make a huge move in the race to get to the Championship 4.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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