Updated October 9, 2025
The 2025 United States Grand Prix will take place at Austin's Circuit of the Americas on Sunday. George Russell won the most recent race in Formula 1 by coming out on top in surprising fashion in Singapore. Russell will look for a second straight win, while McLaren's stars and Max Verstappen aim to get back atop the podium themselves. Before this race begins, continue reading to get my United States Grand Prix prediction.
Heading into the United States GP, McLaren has already wrapped up the Constructors’ Championship with races to spare. That puts even more of the focus on the driver's championship chase. Oscar Piastri leads the standings, but Lando Norris has been a persistent challenger and enters Austin as a co-favorite with his McLaren teammate in the betting markets. Max Verstappen is also pressing hard, as he looks to stay in the race for the season-long title.
Verstappen has won three of the last four runnings of this race. He won three straight times from 2021 to 2023 at COA, with Charles Leclerc winning with Ferrari in last year's edition of this event. A McLaren driver has not won this race since 2012, when Lewis Hamilton got the job done for McLaren-Mercedes.
The race will be held at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. The layout features a dramatic climb into Turn 1 and two long straights that reward power and aerodynamics. The track has been a staple of the U.S. calendar since 2012. The lap record is 1:36.169 set by Charles Leclerc in 2019. Lewis Hamilton is the most successful driver historically at this circuit, with five wins, but Verstappen is starting to catch up to his mark over the last few years.
For top-3 finishes, Norris, Piastri, and Verstappen are all priced as heavy favorites. The market also favors McLaren to win the team classification for the race, which is not a surprise given how dominant they have been all season long.
For my money, Lando Norris is the most attractive bet for a win in Austin. He usually brings strong qualifying pace, consistency on race day, and the backing of this year's top team in F1. Piastri or Verstappen could very well win this race themselves. But Norris is the best value to get the win as far as I'm concerned.
Norris will secure the top qualifying position, manage his tires well, and defend his position throughout the race. As far as the podium is concerned, I think that Leclerc is the only driver with much of a chance to challenge Verstappen and Piastri for a top-three position. I'll go with Norris to get the win, Verstappen to finish in second, and Piastri to round out the podium in third.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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